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01-31-2023, 11:30 AM
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#31
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aner
Your booking percentage betting plan looks real good, but it is not for me. Years ago I realized it was unlikely I would ever be a good enough handicapper to profit at the races. I can beat the take, but rarely have a winning year. Accordingly, I am a $2 bettor with $10 about my limit per race.
As I understand it, your betting scheme required a much higher investment.
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Welcome aboard. I have not made a serious bet in many many years.
I just enjoy doing the tote board research.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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01-31-2023, 11:31 AM
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#32
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Recap for January:
Overall:
# of bets = 116
# of wins = 21
Frequency (F) = 18%
$ bet = $232.00
$ back = $220.78
Return = -$11.22
% loss = 5%
Since I post before scratches are known, I estimate off odds using the morning line. Artificially I have lumped the odds into the following groups:
Favorites = ML odds less than 4
Contenders = ML 4:1 to 9:1
Longshots = ML 10:1 to 19:1
Superlongshots: ML 20:1 or greater
Here's how the categories did in January:
less than 4:1 This category did much worse than normal.
9/27 = 33% frequency
-$10.32/$54.00 = 19% loss
Odds 4-9 This group greatly outperformed expectations.
8/36 = 22% frequency
$27.40/$72.00 =38% profit
Odds 10 -19
4/38 + 11% F
$1.70/$76.00 = 2% profit
Odds 20+
0/15 = 0% F
-$30.00/ $30.00 = -100% loss
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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02-01-2023, 10:05 AM
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#33
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Picks for 2/1/23:
MvR 1----------------#1 Green Millennium
MvR 1----------------#5 Bon Deux
Tam 3----------------#2 Street Cop Officer
Tam 3----------------#4 Falk
TuP 2-----------------#5 Another Ten
GP 7------------------#7 Carsown
GP 7------------------#8 Tiger's Legacy
DeD 3----------------#6 Sommelier
DeD 3----------------#8 Skippa
Penn 2---------------#1 Macho Honda
Penn 2---------------#4 Lightning Ridge
Penn 4---------------#5 Sunshine Linda
TP 5------------------#10 Jenny Lind
TP 5------------------#12 Liam's Gift
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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02-02-2023, 10:34 AM
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#34
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Results:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aner
Picks for 2/1/23:
MvR 1----------------#1 Green Millennium----------out @ 8/5
MvR 1----------------#5 Bon Deux-------------------2nd @ 28:1
Tam 3----------------#2 Street Cop Officer----------out @ 9/2
Tam 3----------------#4 Falk--------------------------2nd @ 5/2
TuP 2-----------------#5 Another Ten-----------------3rd @ 3:1
GP 7------------------#7 Carsown--------------------scratched
GP 7------------------#8 Tiger's Legacy--------------out @ 13:1
DeD 3----------------#6 Sommelier------------------out @ 23:1
DeD 3----------------#8 Skippa----------------------3rd @ 12:1
Penn 2---------------#1 Macho Honda---------------3rd @ 8:1
Penn 2---------------#4 Lightning Ridge------------out @ 5:1
Penn 4---------------#5 Sunshine Linda------------won @ 8/5 = $5.20
TP 5------------------#10 Jenny Lind----------------out @ 3:1
TP 5------------------#12 Liam's Gift----------------scratched
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Bets =12
Wins =1
Bet = $24.00
Back = $5.20
Loss = $18.80
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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02-02-2023, 10:57 AM
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#35
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Picks for 2/2/23:
GP 2-------------#8 Bletchley Girl
GP 5-------------#7 Miranda's Rocky
GP 5-------------#9 Love Miami Love
GP 6-------------#7 Poggibonsi
TuP 5------------#1 Burnin Vernon
TuP 5------------#2 Brenson Buns
FG 7-------------#3 Mendelssohns March
DeD 1-----------#6 Call Me Collect
Penn 1----------#8 Itchy Palms
DeD 3-----------#2 Tdz What a Deal
DeD 5-----------#2 Lil Miss Sunshine
DeD 5-----------#4 Mint Julius
TP 5-------------#5 Navy Fleet
TP 5-------------#13 Allinthecall
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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02-02-2023, 08:17 PM
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#36
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Results:
[QUOTE=Aner;2856125]Picks for 2/2/23:
GP 2-------------#8 Bletchley Girl---------------won @ 12:1 = $26.40
GP 5-------------#7 Miranda's Rocky------------out @ 47:1
GP 5-------------#9 Love Miami Love------------2nd @ 5/2
GP 6-------------#7 Poggibonsi------------------out @ 16:1
TuP 5------------#1 Burnin Vernon---------------scratched
TuP 5------------#2 Brenson Buns---------------out @ 16:1
FG 7-------------#3 Mendelssohns March-------won @ 5/2 = $7.60
DeD 1-----------#6 Call Me Collect--------------won @ 1/5 = #2.40
Penn 1----------#8 Itchy Palms------------------out @ 6:1
DeD 3-----------#2 Tdz What a Deal------------out @ 7/2
DeD 5-----------#2 Lil Miss Sunshine-----------2nd @ 2:1
DeD 5-----------#4 Mint Julius------------------out @ 2:1
TP 5-------------#5 Navy Fleet------------------out @ 7:1
TP 5-------------#13 Allinthecall[---------------scratched
/QUOTE]
Bets = 12
wins = 3
Bet = $24.00
Back = $36.40
Profit = $12.40
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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02-03-2023, 10:09 AM
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#37
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Picks for 2/3/23:
GP 1----------#3 Lieutenant Jack
GP 1----------#8 Hollywood Closeup
GP 3----------#2 She's Stormy
GP 3----------#7 Sugar Boo
GP 4----------#2 Dr Kringle
Tam 4--------#5 Dudefoolingdarling
Tam 4--------#7 Marvelous Lady
OP 4----------#4 Kentucky Bourbon
FG 3----------#1 Fastnfurious
GP 9----------#1 Miss M M
GP 9----------#8 Cecilia's Wings
OP 7----------#2 Unstable Princess
OP 7----------#5 Army Kitchen
FG 7----------#8 Wonderful Justice
OP 9----------#8 Blues Admiral
FG 8----------#6 Bitsy Perfectmatch
GG 5---------#2 Hillsdale Nation
GG 5---------#5 Heaven's Ghost
DeD 3--------#1 Tdz Corrienda Star
TP 3-----------#10 Lady Livermore
GG 8----------#2 She's So Fancy
TP 4-----------#4 Hendrix
TP 5-----------#3 Beau Day
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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02-03-2023, 11:17 PM
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#38
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Results:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aner
Picks for 2/3/23:
GP 1----------#3 Lieutenant Jack--------------out @ 23:1
GP 1----------#8 Hollywood Closeup----------out @ 13:1
GP 3----------#2 She's Stormy----------------out @ 2:1
GP 3----------#7 Sugar Boo-------------------out @ 7:1
GP 4----------#2 Dr Kringle--------------------scratched
Tam 4--------#5 Dudefoolingdarling----------out @ 17:1
Tam 4--------#7 Marvelous Lady--------------out @ 4/5
OP 4----------#4 Kentucky Bourbon----------2nd @ 7/2
FG 3----------#1 Fastnfurious-----------------2nd @ 6/5
GP 9----------#1 Miss M M--------------------won @ 15:1 = $33.00
GP 9----------#8 Cecilia's Wings--------------scratched
OP 7----------#2 Unstable Princess-----------out @ 23:1
OP 7----------#5 Army Kitchen----------------out @ 5:1
FG 7----------#8 Wonderful Justice-----------won @ 2:1 = $6.40
OP 9----------#8 Blues Admiral---------------out @ 8:1
FG 8----------#6 Bitsy Perfectmatch---------out @ 2:1
GG 5---------#2 Hillsdale Nation--------------out @ 16:1
GG 5---------#5 Heaven's Ghost--------------out @ 30:1
DeD 3--------#1 Tdz Corrienda Star----------3rd @ 8:1
TP 3-----------#10 Lady Livermore-----------out @ 4:1
GG 8----------#2 She's So Fancy-------------won @ 7/2 = $9.20
TP 4-----------#4 Hendrix---------------------out @ 10:1
TP 5-----------#3 Beau Day-------------------out @ 57:1
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Bets = 21
Wins = 3
Bet = $44.00
Back = $48.60
Profit = $6.60
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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02-04-2023, 12:07 PM
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#39
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Picks for 2/4/23
GP 3------------------#8 Jackson's Web
Tam 2-----------------#2 My Girl Melly
GP 5-------------------#3 Sara's Shaman
GP 5-------------------#7 Captain Jack
OP 2-------------------#10 Shotgun Up
OP 2-------------------#11 Joe Bill
OP 3-------------------#9 Patrolman
Tam 6-----------------#3 Just My Own
OP 5-------------------#2 Kyandi
FG 5-------------------#3 Zippin Pippin
Tam 8-----------------#5 Bold Majestic
Tam 8------------------#6 Roses by Liam
SA 5--------------------#2 Upward Mobility
OP 10------------------#1 Willow Creek Road
FG 9-------------------#9 Anslie's Gumdrop
SA 7-------------------#8 Motorcade
SA 7-------------------#9 Bluegrass Go Go
TP 5-------------------#3 Notario
TP 5--------------------#9 Amanwalksintoabar
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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02-04-2023, 11:46 PM
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#40
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Results:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aner
Picks for 2/4/23
GP 3------------------#8 Jackson's Web----------2nd @ 5:1
Tam 2-----------------#2 My Girl Melly-----------won @ 20:1 = $42.00
GP 5-------------------#3 Sara's Shaman--------out @ 5:1
GP 5-------------------#7 Captain Jackout-------out @ 11:1
OP 2-------------------#10 Shotgun Up----------out @ 9:1
OP 2-------------------#11 Joe Bill----------------out @17:1
OP 3-------------------#9 Patrolman--------------out @ 4:1
Tam 6-----------------#3 Just My Own------------3rd @ 1:1
OP 5-------------------#2 Kyandi------------------3rd @ 27:1
FG 5-------------------#3 Zippin Pippin-----------2nd @ 2:1
Tam 8-----------------#5 Bold Majestic-----------out @ 32:1
Tam 8------------------#6 Roses by Liam---------3rd @ 5:1
SA 5--------------------#2 Upward Mobility-------out @ 6:1
OP 10------------------#1 Willow Creek Road-----won @ 7:1 = $16.20
FG 9-------------------#9 Anslie's Gumdrop-------2nd @ 3:1
SA 7-------------------#8 Motorcade---------------out @ 3:1
SA 7-------------------#9 Bluegrass Go Go--------2nd @ 20:1
TP 5-------------------#3 Notario-------------------won @ 9:1 = $21.24
TP 5--------------------#9 Amanwalksintoabar-----2nd @ 6/5
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Bets = 19
Wins = 3
Bet = $38.00
Back = $79.44
Profit = $41.40
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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02-05-2023, 07:58 AM
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#41
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Excellent. Continued success
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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02-05-2023, 09:43 AM
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#42
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
Excellent. Continued success
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Thank you. I'm finally on the positive side for the year and am hoping to keep there.
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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02-05-2023, 10:13 AM
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#43
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Picks for 2/5/23:
GP 3------------#8 Modazzle
FG 1------------#4 Senate Dance
GP 6-------------#8 Appear
Tam 6------------#1 Toosweetforme
SA 1-------------#6 Conquistar
Tam 7------------#3 Mizwarrior
Tam 7------------#7 Unxpected Tiger
GP 9--------------#1 La Goulu
GP 9--------------#8 Moral Turpitude
FG 6--------------#7 Demolition Duke
FG 6--------------#8 Hey Jackson
SA 4--------------#1 Loyal to a Fault
FG 7--------------#6 Watch This Munny
FG 8--------------#6 Chad's Flash
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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02-05-2023, 08:09 PM
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#44
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Results:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aner
Picks for 2/5/23:
GP 3------------#8 Modazzle---------------out 2@ 5:1
FG 1------------#4 Senate Dance----------2nd @ 2:1
GP 6-------------#8 Appear-----------------out @ 20:1
Tam 6------------#1 Toosweetforme--------out @ 6:1
SA 1-------------#6 Conquistar-------------2nd @ 1/5
Tam 7------------#3 Mizwarrior-------------out @ 31:1
Tam 7------------#7 Unxpected Tiger------out @ 24:1
GP 9--------------#1 La Goulu--------------3rd @ 9:1
GP 9--------------#8 Moral Turpitude------out @ 5:1
FG 6--------------#7 Demolition Duke-----won @ 5:1 = $13.60
FG 6--------------#8 Hey Jackson----------out @ 22:1
SA 4--------------#1 Loyal to a Fault-------won @ 3/5 = $3.40
FG 7--------------#6 Watch This Munny----out @ 5/2
FG 8--------------#6 Chad's Flash----------out @ 30:1
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#Bets =14
#Wins = 2
$ bet = 28.00
$ back = $17.00
loss = $11.00
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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02-08-2023, 10:20 AM
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#45
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Picks for 2/8/23:
GP 2----------#1 Elusive Empire
GP 2----------#7 Roaring Fire
GP 3----------#2 Quickstyle
GP 3----------#6 Bontita
Tam 3---------#5 Tiz a Tempest
Tam 3---------#7 Sweet Desantis
Tam 5---------#2 Newyearspresent
Tam 5---------#3 Salit
Tam 6---------#3 Red Delicious
Tam 7---------#2 Powerful Native
Tam 7---------#6 Lookin at Kisses
TP 2-----------#1 Twelve Sharp
TP 2-----------#8 Cinderella Story
TP 3-----------#3 My Lily Mae
Penn 4--------#3 Just Got Started
TP 5-----------#4 Chica de Oro
TP 5-----------#9Thestral
DeD 7---------#2 Lunar Module
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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