TimeformUS Derby and Oaks Points Races spreadsheet

[cj]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Post it as an attachment as well so people can click on it and get a more readable version?

Right click, open in new tab. I usually post that instruction when I do the full thing.

[rastajenk]

Looks good...Big Thanks!

[cj]

Updated for Tampa, will get to the Oaks stuff this week.



Right Click and open in new tab for better viewing, also attached.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Thanks CJ.

Really liked that race from Practical Move.

Numbers seem to add up to a very wide open Derby. Obviously the big races are to come, and we'll get some more sorting out.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Thanks CJ.

Really liked that race from Practical Move.

I did as well yet I see the next two horses also pulled big figures. I get a bit skeptical when that happens. We shall see how the 9F preps shake out.

[cj]

Derby



Oaks



To see larger images, right click and open in a new tab.

Spreadsheet is attached in XLSX format.

[Michael]

@CJ

Did they really go 20.58 to the 1/4 @ Sunland ? or did those birds set the pace.

[PhantomOnTour]

My homemade HumNums gave Two Phils (Jeff Ruby Steaks) the best prep figure of them all so far, and by a comfortable margin.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Michael

@CJ

Did they really go 20.58 to the 1/4 @ Sunland ? or did those birds set the pace.

The birds tripped the beam early, more like 22.62 going from memory on my video timing.

I'll have the sheets updated by tomorrow morning. All the figs are done.

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by cj

The birds tripped the beam early, more like 22.62 going from memory on my video timing.

I'll have the sheets updated by tomorrow morning. All the figs are done.

Speaking of timing...I wonder if there was some sort of error in the timing of the Louisiana Derby.
This year marked the 4th time they've run the race at the 1m316 distance.
here are the splits for each one:

2020: 23.56-48.00-112.42-137.61-156.47
2021: 23.10-47.04-111.25-136.38-155.06
2022: 23.27-47.35-111.69-136.16-154.28
2023: 24.71-49.60-114.69-139.13-157.33

I know you cannot compare times from one year to the next at face value, but still, it seems awfully slow.
My pace figs were 20pts below par for this class & distance. Raw times (before applying the variant) were about 12pts slow. I had all of the other six routes on card faster than par for the 1/2m and 3/4m.

I have never been a fan of breaking a race out and applying an arbitrary number to fit what I think 'should have been', but I'm wondering if something went wrong timewise for this rarely run (once a year) distance.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

2023: 24.71-49.60-114.69-139.13-157.33

Splits (24:89) (25:09) (24:44) (18:20)

These figures are reminiscent of American Pharoah in the Rebel Stakes, albeit that event is a panel shorter:

24.41-49.63-115.22-139.76-145.78
Splits (25:22) (25:59) (24.54) (6:02)

If Kingsbarns could keep that final 1.5 panel pace up through 10F then would have a 2:03.43 time which would put him within five or six lengths of most KY Derby winners. Not one I'm inclined to take lightly come May. Prat may have a tough choice to make depending on how the SA Derby goes.

[cj]

Derby



Oaks


To see larger images, right click and open in a new tab.

Spreadsheet is attached in XLSX format.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

My homemade HumNums gave Two Phils (Jeff Ruby Steaks) the best prep figure of them all so far, and by a comfortable margin.

TFUS 121.....bazinga!

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by Tom

TFUS 121.....bazinga!

Deserving figure. They were a full second faster than their elders in the 10th.

What doesn't make sense are the Equibase figures.

Two Phil's got a 97 and Wolfie's Dynaghost got a 113.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Two Phil's got a 97 and Wolfie's Dynaghost got a 113.

My problem with 2Phils figures is it puts Major Dude and Funtastic right up there with Forte, Practical Move, Tapit Trice, etc. I just can't see it but I've deceived myself before when it comes to figures.