TimeformUS Derby and Oaks Points Races spreadsheet

[Fightingirish51195]

My spreadsheet has the same top 4 (which is to be expected because of the final fractions) just a different order

[cj]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

thx cj.....

is it possible to an average from all races for each horse?

Not this late in the game, busy week at DRF.

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by cj

Not this late in the game, busy week at DRF.

ok thx

[Michael]

Hey CJ,

Just finished my personal post-mortem review of the derby. Kind of wondering as a figure maker... what your thoughts are in regards to any of the preps and the figures that you gave them. Are you happy with all of the figs? did you over / under estimate any track variants? I ask mainly bc I used 3 different figs for this derby and certain horses came up when I used time form and beyers that I didn't land on when I used brisnet.

Specifically I had White Abbario as a contender for both timeform and DRF. Then, I eliminated mo-donegal when I used beyers, but really liked mo-donegal with timeform and brisnet. Just found it strange that Zandon had a 103 bris and a 111 bris for Mo Donegal. Obviously I'm asking out of respect for your hard work and not questioning your talent. (atm I think timeform is the best figs on the market)

What planted the seed in my mind to ask you... was Andy Beyer picked White Abarrio. (If I just used Beyers & timeform I had him as an overlay.)

i think the races or figs in question would be for the wood, any of the gulf stream park figs and I guess the bluegrass.

Ultimately I ended up keying off of Mo Donegal and I think I'm happy with my pick and my play.

You don't have to answer here.. but, thought it's a good topic for the podcast with David. I found the figs interesting for these preps.

Edit: and thank you btw for posting these derby updates in this thread every year.. Makes it fun to follow along.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Michael

Hey CJ,

Just finished my personal post-mortem review of the derby. Kind of wondering as a figure maker... what your thoughts are in regards to any of the preps and the figures that you gave them. Are you happy with all of the figs? did you over / under estimate any track variants? I ask mainly bc I used 3 different figs for this derby and certain horses came up when I used time form and beyers that I didn't land on when I used brisnet.

Specifically I had White Abbario as a contender for both timeform and DRF. Then, I eliminated mo-donegal when I used beyers, but really liked mo-donegal with timeform and brisnet. Just found it strange that Zandon had a 103 bris and a 111 bris for Mo Donegal. Obviously I'm asking out of respect for your hard work and not questioning your talent. (atm I think timeform is the best figs on the market)

What planted the seed in my mind to ask you... was Andy Beyer picked White Abarrio. (If I just used Beyers & timeform I had him as an overlay.)

i think the races or figs in question would be for the wood, any of the gulf stream park figs and I guess the bluegrass.

Ultimately I ended up keying off of Mo Donegal and I think I'm happy with my pick and my play.

You don't have to answer here.. but, thought it's a good topic for the podcast with David. I found the figs interesting for these preps.

Edit: and thank you btw for posting these derby updates in this thread every year.. Makes it fun to follow along.

First, I'm a little annoyed I didn't update the spreadsheet with Rich Strike. He was ranked 17th on Speed Figure, 4th on Last Fraction, and 8th overall. I'm traveling this week (in Philly for two NBA playoff games) and just didn't have the time.

As for the preps, nothing stuck out to me too much. Maybe the SoCal preps are a little high, but otherwise everything else fell in line. I hated the Florida preps and the Arkansas route, have been clear about that for a while. Not sure why you'd have White Abarrio as an overlay on TFUS, I didn't like him at all. I said on the podcast if I had to take one horse from that group it was Simplification.

I may have underrated Epicenter a little, but he fit, just thought he'd be overbet. I was pretty sure they winner was coming from SoCal, Kentucky, Louisiana or New York, but I never saw the actual winner at all. I admittedly was probably a little lazy since I ignored him as an AE all week, but I'm not going to be that guy to say I'd have liked him more than possible tri and super filler.

[cj]

Twitter

[Michael]

Appreciate the reply / insight.

I landed on White Abarrio as an overlay solely based off of a spreadsheet that I use to handicap. The spreadsheet is more or less just my own home-brew ability figures that highlighted White Abarrio was an overlay at 10/1 when I used timeform. (7/1 when I used beyer speed figures, and a sixth-man / non-contender using brisnet)

Then, I listened to Andy Beyer speak with Jay Privman on their annual drf webcast. He liked White Abarrio and toed the same line as you when speaking in regards to figure making on the day of the Wood Memorial. That his guy had a difficult time sussing out a track variant. I recall you saying that you were happy with the slightly higher figure that you gave Mo Donegal as compared to Beyer.

Beyer mentioned that he believed his own figures were selling White Abarrio short and that he likely ran a better race than his figures supported.

Anyway, I listen to your podcast twice a week and know you weren't hot on the the Florida preps. Just figured I'd ask how you felt after the fact of the race being ran. Thanks again

[cj]

Post Derby version, fillies obviously done, will update after Preakness and Belmont.

Derby



Oaks



To see larger images, right click and open in a new tab.

Spreadsheet is attached in XLSX format, can also be viewed in Google at this link. (some formatting lost)

[cj]

Post Preakness version, will update after the Belmont.

Derby



Oaks



To see larger images, right click and open in a new tab.

Spreadsheet is attached in XLSX format, can also be viewed in Google at this link. (some formatting lost)

[cj]

Final version for 2022, see you next year!

Derby



Oaks



To see larger images, right click and open in a new tab.

Spreadsheet is attached in XLSX format, can also be viewed in Google at this link. (some formatting lost)

[Robert Fischer]

Appreciate it!

This has been a cool and interesting 3yo season. We are tough on the crop every year, and we can claim that the crop must not be good if a long shot wins the Kentucky Derby, or complain that the Preakness and Belmont didn't have everyone, but these were relatively fast paces and/or races.

Thanks for the consistent hard work. I continue to use TimeformUS

[cj]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Appreciate it!

This has been a cool and interesting 3yo season. We are tough on the crop every year, and we can claim that the crop must not be good if a long shot wins the Kentucky Derby, or complain that the Preakness and Belmont didn't have everyone, but these were relatively fast paces and/or races.

Thanks for the consistent hard work. I continue to use TimeformUS

Thanks, it was a good year. Figures aren't everything, but they help. Of the Triple Crown and the Oaks, I went 3 for 4, and of course it isn't too hard to guess which I missed. But not too shabby, every $8 wagered returned $31.40. I hope people take time to watch the videos I put out.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by cj

Thanks, it was a good year. Figures aren't everything, but they help. Of the Triple Crown and the Oaks, I went 3 for 4, and of course it isn't too hard to guess which I missed. But not too shabby, every $8 wagered returned $31.40. I hope people take time to watch the videos I put out.

cj, could you present a statistical analysis of your selections? Something akin to the simple, but accurate analysis used by Fabricand in his book "Horse Sense".

His work is referenced along with Benter and many other notables in the marvelous book "Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets", that truly gets deep into the weeds. But no need for that, Fabricand PH.D. cuts to the chase.

thanks.

[cj]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

cj, could you present a statistical analysis of your selections? Something akin to the simple, but accurate analysis used by Fabricand in his book "Horse Sense".

His work is referenced along with Benter and many other notables in the marvelous book "Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets", that truly gets deep into the weeds. But no need for that, Fabricand PH.D. cuts to the chase.

thanks.

LOL, what? Like I could give you win percentage and ROI if I wanted to take the time, but I'm not going back and doing it. It would likely be in the + this year because I've had a couple very big priced winners, but I don't track them any longer. I did for a while, but to be frank, nobody seemed to care so I stopped.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by cj

LOL, what? Like I could give you win percentage and ROI if I wanted to take the time, but I'm not going back and doing it. It would likely be in the + this year because I've had a couple very big priced winners, but I don't track them any longer. I did for a while, but to be frank, nobody seemed to care so I stopped.

Ok. That's disappointing.
Best of LUCK " may the horse be with you"