Handicapping, Spot Plays, Software, etc

[NorCalGreg]

If I had gotten out of bed earlier...was a nice early pick-3 in the Trainer Angles Report:

$2 Pick-3 (2/1/1) Paid $180.50 (3OF3)


...missed betting it

[NorCalGreg]

Wow...Woodbine has 5 races with a purse 100K or more, and only 1 of them is a stakes race, while 2 are MSW races.
Didn't know Canada had that much expendable money.

As far as Maiden 2nd Time Starters go...take your pick


5th MORE HARDER 20-1
5TH WALSINGHAM 20-1 ---

6th BODY OF LAW 20-1
6TH MARDENE 20-1
6TH LISA MARIE 8-1

Think I'll try a 5th race exacta box /

..and a 6th race box of / /

While I'm there may as well bet those in a , -,, Double

Good luck

-NCG

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Wow...Woodbine has 5 races with a purse 100K or more, and only 1 of them is a stakes race, while 2 are MSW races.
Didn't know Canada had that much expendable money.

Well when we rake in huge handles like Woodbine you got to give back any way they can and that is upping the purses just like Oaklawn has done with their own

I have loved what Woodbine has done as a whole with racing and giving back to the community and hope that they can continue to have success down the road with their new plans for hotel/casino/entertainment area at Woodbine

Now: any reservations at the Woodbine Hotel yet?

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Wow...Woodbine has 5 races with a purse 100K or more, and only 1 of them is a stakes race, while 2 are MSW races.
Didn't know Canada had that much expendable money.

As far as Maiden 2nd Time Starters go...take your pick


5th MORE HARDER 20-1
5TH WALSINGHAM 20-1 ---

6th BODY OF LAW 20-1
6TH MARDENE 20-1
6TH LISA MARIE 8-1

Think I'll try a 5th race exacta box /

..and a 6th race box of / /

While I'm there may as well bet those in a , -,, Double

Good luck

-NCG

Thats Cannadian currency....

$100,000 Canadian = $4.57 USA

mike

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

Thats Cannadian currency....

$100,000 Canadian = $4.57 USA

mike

lol...so the Canadian Dollar is like the "Bolivar" in Venezuela--a million Bolivars is like, a buck and a half- American.

(to our fine neighbors to the north--remember it was geroge.burns who insulted you, not me )

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

lol...so the Canadian Dollar is like the "Bolivar" in Venezuela--a million Bolivars is like, a buck and a half- American.

(to our fine neighbors to the north--remember it was geroge.burns who insulted you, not me )

Yep...NoBallsGreg

PS- I'll be all set in Feb when I turn 65 and this fine country will make sure I'm taken care of till I die...

[NorCalGreg]

We haven't seen an Exotic Bets Tipsheet in a while:



Good Luck,

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Greg I took all your 24 horses and used my bet sizes for all (excluding favorites) and returned $1.39 on the dollar. $2.918/$2.098, winning but 3 of 8 races.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

Greg I took all your 24 horses and used my bet sizes for all (excluding favorites) and returned $1.39 on the dollar. $2.918/$2.098, winning but 3 of 8 races.

This is something I've been thinking about, and fooling around with for quite a while. This Best-Five Contender list contains the winner in 2 of 3 races--usually 3 to 6 winners per day on avg.
My thought was, all I need to do is handicap (by whatever means is most effective) just THOSE 3 ONLY.

Your particular method, to be honest--is over my head. I've tried mechanical ratings, power ratings, etc...on just the 3 contenders, and not done very well at all. Hitting 50% of the winners...which would be outstanding in my opinion, drops your hit rate down to 1 out of 3 (mathematically, that's probably being too generous).
It's fun to attempt projects like this one...and who knows--it could lead to a profitable method, or obscure winning subset.
Here's today's Finger Lakes Contenders:

[NorCalGreg]

Lets try this:


Contenders selected by "Top Demon Power" and 4-1 ML:

2nd GATEWAY GUARDIAN 4-1
3RD SMOKIN' ALONE 8-1
5TH MULIMBIMBY 5-1
6TH WHAT'S MY CATEGORY 8-1

Good luck,

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Think I tried to be a little too cute, there. Did some back-checking...DEMON POWER is not that effective at FLX. Basic fundamental handicapping seems to work best here.

This is simply the #1 selections from Best-Five Consensus. Click once and you'll get the list of top picks on your screen, like this:






beat the heck out of Demon Power anyway

ps: very cool Veteran's Day poster on your front page, Mike

[green80]

don't sell Demon Power short yet,


Used top demon power horse at Delta yesterday
1st ran 2nd
2nd WON $19.40
3rd Won $4.60
4th ran 2nd at 10/1 paid $10 to place
5th out
6th out - wouldn’t bet it anyway .60 on a dollar
7th Won $7.20
8th out
9th out

[NorCalGreg]

Demon Power can be deadly at certain tracks...apparently FLX isn't one of them.

A nice spot-play with Demon Power is look for the top rated horse--then check his TMPACE rating. If he's dominant on TMPACE as well--you got a bet. Just be sure MOST of the entries have a TMPACE rating.

At Aqueduct today:

1ST CAUMSETT 3-1 $11.40 TOP DEMON--+35 TMPACE
3RD TASS 4-1 $5.30 TOP DEMON-- +29 TMPACE
5TH GHOST GIANT 8-1 2ND TOP DEMON-- +8 TMPACE

Even though Ghost Giant wasn't "dominant" on TMPACE, at 8-1 ML it was worth a bet. He missed the win by a neck.

[wolsons]

Interesting idea, Greg - checked all tracks yesterday (after scratches), criteria was 1) top DM Power by 1 full point or more, and 2) top TMPace by 10 points or more:

AQU 1) #6 11.40
3) #9 5.30
FLX 7) #7 6.00
GPX 5) #2 -
8) #9 -
IND 1) #1 -
3) #10 -
LRL 1) #4 7.00
RPX 1) #2 9.80
4) #5 6.20
5) #2 -
TUP 2) #3 -
WOX 2) #2 -
3) #4 3.00
4) #2 6.80

Obviously a very limited test, but not too shabby