Handicapping, Spot Plays, Software, etc

[NorCalGreg]

Air fryer? Figured you for a tree-hugging air-fryer. Real men fry their tater tots in cookin' grease.
The ones that are still alive, anyway.

REMINGTON

3RD KICKEN GOOD TIME 15-1
4TH FARR THE BEST 6-1
5TH ONE FAMOUS CAPI 8-1
8TH JF PRINCESS STORM 8-1
10TH BF LOTA BENJI 15-1
11TH RP RECKLESS WIRE 9/2

Good luck

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

9TH RACE

MEDIA SENSATION 50-1

Using the TIPS program (with it set to look for longshots showing unusual Trainer Manipulation)...this horse came up in the 9th today at AQ.
With one no-effort race under his belt, and back in 16 days-shows good works, 1st juice, surface, distance and rider switch for today. Trainer Morley Thomas is money when showing these maneuvers.
Could be just another prep today, but shows enough for me to take a chance:

$10 win #5 MEDIA SENSATION 50-1 9th race Aqueduct.

-NCG

[Vinnie]

Hey Greg:

That was a nice longshot on the in the 9th at AQU. I too played that race and took a shot. Why not?! He was in the mix until late in the race. Made it very exciting.

[NorCalGreg]

Yeah, the best part of betting the ponies is doing some serious detective work...and nailing a big longshot. Horses at 50-1 ML probably win 1% of races (if that). I prefer to see some insider betting action-this one showed none as it went off at 80-1.

Here's the chart comment:

MEDIA SENSATION broke in at the start bumping EXCURSIONNISTE in tandem with SARATOGA
SKY, then came inwards leaving the chute forcing a trio to check in behind, raced just off the inside through the first turn before chasing four then three wide, got set down angled six wide into upper stretch and made no headway

Will definitely watch this one next out-paying close attn to any unusual tote board movement.

-NCG

[Vinnie]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Yeah, the best part of betting the ponies is doing some serious detective work...and nailing a big longshot. Horses at 50-1 ML probably win 1% of races (if that). I prefer to see some insider betting action-this one showed none as it went off at 80-1.

Here's the chart comment:

MEDIA SENSATION broke in at the start bumping EXCURSIONNISTE in tandem with SARATOGA
SKY, then came inwards leaving the chute forcing a trio to check in behind, raced just off the inside through the first turn before chasing four then three wide, got set down angled six wide into upper stretch and made no headway

Will definitely watch this one next out-paying close attn to any unusual tote board movement.

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Some good looking doubles and exotics plays @ SA today:



Good luck,

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Liam's Lady (#5, 6/1) is entered Parx Racing on Tuesday, May 3rd, 2022 in Race 11.

YOUR NOTES: 300 @ 11-1 3rd

Out for Justice (#3, 12/1) is entered Mountaineer Park on Tuesday, May 3rd, 2022 in Race 8.

YOUR NOTES: RTW

Hola Princess (#2, 15/1) is entered Parx Racing on Tuesday, May 3rd, 2022 in Race 2.

YOUR NOTES: 400 4th 40-1

The "notes" refer to trainer angles I deem important-you may not

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Mannnnnn...that was a tough beat @ Mnr on OUT FOR JUSTICE--if the race was 300 strides, 'Justice led for 299...nipped at the wire @ 17-1

SATURDAY

NO PASA NADA 8/1 Sunray Park 9th

JAQUE MATE COCO 30/1 Tampa Bay Downs 8th

CALLMETHEBREEZE 7/2 Parx Racing 1st

A THREAD OF BLUE 5/2 Gulfstream Park 4th

SWEET SURPRISE 30/1 Belmont Park 4th

MISSOURI 30/1 Belmont Park 6th

CHEEKY TICO 8/1 Belmont Park 6th


Good luck,

-NCG

[HPFridays]

HI Greg,

How do horses end up on your Stable Activity list? Is it a troubled trip you've seen while watching a race or other reasons? I like the list and thanks, as always, for posting.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by HPFridays

HI Greg,

How do horses end up on your Stable Activity list? Is it a troubled trip you've seen while watching a race or other reasons? I like the list and thanks, as always, for posting.

Hello HP:

I rarely watch races...and usually only if I have a wager going. Recently started looking at trainer moves and changes in detail. At the lower levels of racing, trainers and owners don't make much if anything from purses...they simply have to supplement their income at the windows. Or failing that-- get out of the game.

Here's what I look for:

-back in <12 days at some point within last 3 races...this trainer is racing his horse into shape, instead of workouts alone.
-blinkers on
-distance switch
-rider switch
-surface switch
-fast workout
-eased up last (not "broke down") but showed early speed-then faded away
-workouts (in order of importance):
*3 moves/races <19 days
*3 moves <16 days
*3 moves <12 days
*3 moves <8 days

TIPS fans will recognize these...ideally, you look for at least 3 minimum. On the east coast they don't show much in the way of works, but can still qualify on at least 3 of the other "signals".

Maidens are so far, solidly profitable. I allocated $250 bankroll @ $10 per, giving me 25 wagers before busting. Horses that don't appear to have made a real effort on this day-usually get re-bet next out. Betting longshots can kill a bankroll real quick, so it's best to have a stop-limit before things get out of hand.

Also I don't bet anything under 4-1--some are listed for "stat-keeping" only.

Take care,

-NCG

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Hello HP:

I rarely watch races...and usually only if I have a wager going. Recently started looking at trainer moves and changes in detail. At the lower levels of racing, trainers and owners don't make much if anything from purses...they simply have to supplement their income at the windows. Or failing that-- get out of the game.



-NCG

Don't feel so bad for trainers......

Being part of a group that I was in on 2 horses ...

Trainers get about $5000+ a month for each horse
Out of that , they pay for their help and feed
Everything else falls to the owners , vet , licenses, travel expenses , etc etc
And if the horse wins the trainer + jockey also gets a tip....

Also don't expect to see any money till the horse wins consistently like

2 or more a month.....

Mike

[sharkey11]

thats right GB i knew 3-4 trainers and each horse under there care cost from 60-135 a day and 2 guys had over a hundred in there care and this was over 20 years ago .they laughed all the way to the bank.

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by sharkey11

thats right GB i knew 3-4 trainers and each horse under there care cost from 60-135 a day and 2 guys had over a hundred in there care and this was over 20 years ago .they laughed all the way to the bank.

thx Shark.....I absolutely believe it now...

So now I say...."Fock them too"

LOL

[NorCalGreg]

Biggest winner so far...4/21 @ TUP. MR LOVE MUFFIN had 4 big SIGNALS--can you see them?
When I saw it was a maiden vs winners in a minor stake race-was ready to toss it, until I saw the amazing improving form of this one. With the 4 trainer tips and rapid form improvement, made the bet worth taking a shot.

[NorCalGreg]

VINNY TWO CENTS 30/1 Belmont Park 5th

TONED UP 20/1 Belmont Park 6th

RHUMJAR 9/2 Monmouth Park 1st

AMAZING MSKITTY 15/1 Gulfstream Park 10th

HOT LEGS ROMOLO 12/1 Santa Anita Park 1st

DREAMER GIRL 12/1 Santa Anita Park 7th

BELLEO'S MUSIC 8/1 Santa Anita Park 7th



Good luck,

-NCG