Handicapping, Spot Plays, Software, etc

[NorCalGreg]

Yes...you can - using Platinum Power - find tracks where top-power horses at 8-1 or better, show a long term profit. Sure, but where's the fun in that? Mindlessly wagering on a parade of horses...just for profit?

Here's a Platinum spot play for those that like to have some adventure in their lives:

With PLATINUM, click the "ALL" button-then sort by "POWR"

You're looking for a top-ranked [by power] contender who did NOT win last out...and is not the ML favorite.

See the horses above I have already selected for play. That 7th race is far too contentious--just ignore it.
I would have bet that 6th race horse-if he hadn't shown a win last race.

*by the way-if you haven't guessed, I was kidding about looking for "adventure" as opposed to solid profits-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Since TUP just decided perhaps their customers might like the scratches for today...this looks a little different:



We'll go with these...and hope for the best

[NorCalGreg]

That Spot play was killer...until I posted "live", then of course it tanks

Todays another day...couple from the horse watch list:

OUT FOR JUSTICE (#9, 15/1), is entered at Turf Paradise in Race 5


MORISSETTE (#4, 6/1), is entered at Parx Racing in Race 2

[NorCalGreg]

Anyone have anything good going today?

Besides longshot OUT FOR JUSTICE in the 5th @ TUP..."double back" spot play has CHICKS DIG MUNNY 10-1 listed in the 3rd-could pull the upset.

Here's the TUP Trainer Angles for today:



I'm convinced if one were to meticulously study former Hollendorfer assistant trainer Jon Wong...serious profits await. This guy is a winner, no doubt about it. He enters aggressively, and where he can win. His claims are spot-on as well.
Check him out.

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Nice to actually get notified BEFORE the races (since I switched over to TS )

Capt. Candy (#5, 3/1) is entered at Parx on Wednesday, February 9th in Race 10 .

Mickey Dobbs (#7, 10/1) is entered at Turf Paradise on Wednesday, February 9th in Race 8 .

GUMP (#1 9/2) is entered at Gulfstream on Wednesday Feb 9th in race 7

[NorCalGreg]

Has anyone else noticed ABILITY POWER in PLATINUM and EXOTIC BETS wins a lot? I'm checking everything @ Parx lately...here's how Ability Power and NO OTHER HANDICAPPING has fared at Parx this month:



Wins almost as often as the favorites...but (so far) an avg payoff you can work with.

I'm still on my now 20-year quest to find the auto-bet...could this be it? I don't mean just blindly betting these-but finding the optimal price range and distance/class this is solidly profitable at-could be the ticket. I already know the track (PARX)...iron out some details and we may be getting close. It does take time.

I'll post the Exotic Bets top-3 Ability Power - after scratches, in the morning.

Later,

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

*As promised:

[NorCalGreg]

Okay...so how'd we do? Glad you asked:
3 winners on top $11.40 - $17.60 - $3.80
3 exactas
8 winners out of 11 races
Nice late P-4





*these are the total top picks for this month (today had no top pick in race 3)

[geroge.burns99]

Hey Greg....

That's some good stuff....

My only beef is that why are so many winners in 3rd slot....

Is it just Parx or all over?

Can something be tweaked to rank them higher....?

I can see longshots in 3rd spot but to see low and mid range tells me that
its just a little off....

Mike

[sharkey11]

mike i think the winners are ranked #1 to the far right in his picks layout

[green80]

I'm getting slightly different ability numbers in platinum than I am with Exotic Bets where the rankings are different. Is this the case or do I have an older version here?

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

Hey Greg....

That's some good stuff....

My only beef is that why are so many winners in 3rd slot....

Is it just Parx or all over?

Can something be tweaked to rank them higher....?

I can see longshots in 3rd spot but to see low and mid range tells me that
its just a little off....

Mike

Are you implying my Ability Rating could be improved? Of course it can...but as my programmer has retired, or maybe gone into the witness protection program-it's not gonna happen.

I'm trying to come up with something that would eliminate 1 horse per race, if possible, without bringing down the ROI. Vinnie recently said "eliminate that 1 longshot at your own peril". That is so true, as I found out. Even a simple, time-honored elimination method such as, for example, layoff horses.
I even checked the trainer's stats on layoffs beforehand...gave that up after missing out on big payoffs on horses that hadn't raced in a year or so.

So... it's up to the individual to refine and improve the method. It can be done.

Next week I'll increase my wagers using the "square root of profits". My beginning wagers were $10W, giving me a profit of $175, with a square root = $13. You can utilize this wagering method per race, per day...or at the end of the week's tally. You lose some accuracy (read profitability) adjusting weekly, but so much easier to adjust wagers, at least that is my preferred method.

Good luck,

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by green80

I'm getting slightly different ability numbers in platinum than I am with Exotic Bets where the rankings are different. Is this the case or do I have an older version here?

Sorry, Mike G...didn't see your post:

The ABILITY ranking is slightly different (improved) from the original formula in Platinum. It's been awhile, and not sure exactly what improvements were made, since we were corresponding by email for any changes. I crashed and burned about 5 computers since then, so no notes on changes remain. At least I have none in my possession

[NorCalGreg]

[NorCalGreg]

This is how I played GPX today using the Best-Five contenders (you are welcome to play it any way you like, of course):

Look for races with at least 2 at 4-1+...Key the top-ranked horse with the other 2 in exactas (total cost $4.00) I also trying 1 little pick-3 for the heck of it. Yeah, I can easily whiff for the day...or get lucky and win a hundred dollars.

I've only got $18 wagered