Handicapping, Spot Plays, Software, etc

[OzYank]

Originally Posted by hracingplyr

What's the R.O.I on all this? Winning percentage is really not that important. It's the R.O.I. It's kind of like a woman in a bikini, it reveals a lot, but does not tell the whole story.

Bob

I don't track that info nor have the time to - only my own ROI betting. I use these stats to help make a decision and definitely throw some choices into my pick 4's that otherwise I may have overlooked. Like a woman in a bikini if you like what you see it's your choice whether to show interest and get what you are looking for .......

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by hracingplyr

What's the R.O.I on all this? Winning percentage is really not that important. It's the R.O.I. It's kind of like a woman in a bikini, it reveals a lot, but does not tell the whole story.

Bob

Win % is vitally important. If a spot play avgs 10% winners-you are likely to have to withstand long losing streaks. Can your bankroll survive?

If you want "the whole story told"...contribute some of your own research-we'll get a more complete picture.

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Graded Stakes are obviously not my forte...but I'll take a small 💲6.00 plunge anyway, on a late p-4:

GULFSTREAM PARK RACE 9 $0.50 P4
R9
4
R10
1
6
R11
6
9
12
R12
6
8

[green80]

Originally Posted by OzYank

G'day - enjoy some stats compiled over time across Greg's various products I have purchased...good luck today !!

If I am reading you stats correctly, the best bet on the board is the TM Pace, hitting 39% over 1300+ races at GPX. That's pretty impressive.

[OzYank]

Originally Posted by green80

If I am reading you stats correctly, the best bet on the board is the TM Pace, hitting 39% over 1300+ races at GPX. That's pretty impressive.

Yeah the TMPACE is the same as the Aussie Outback spot play on speed Demons where I select any horse with a TMPACE number 20 points or more higher than the next contender and must have at least half the horses in the race having a TMPACE number.
A lot of chalk comes up with this play (hence the good percentage but not so great ROI I imagine if you bet it every single time) so when i see odds 3-1 or better i always bet it. When I see a 40+ point difference I usually single them in my pick 4's unless I also like a decent priced horse to throw in.
I should also mention the class of speed column only counts single horses that appear when hitting that spot play, multiple horses in a race i ignore and don't count it.

[OzYank]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Graded Stakes are obviously not my forte...but I'll take a small 💲6.00 plunge anyway, on a late p-4:

GULFSTREAM PARK RACE 9 $0.50 P4
R9
4
R10
1
6
R11
6
9
12
R12
6
8

I will go with you Greg, my $18 pick 4 is
R9 - 1,4
R10 - 1,6
R11 - 6,10,12
R12 - 1,4,5

[green80]

I also took a look at your Speed+ play at GPX today since it came in next at 28% and usually gives horses that aren't always chalk.



Today 2 plays:


6th #2 Wolfie's Dynaghost -won $43.00 19.60 11.40


10 #6 Liam -- ran out

[NorCalGreg]

Only thing I "won" at GPX today, was the "Bet-Back" incentive at Twin.

I haven't checked yet--but there are 2 or 3 tracks were that speed play wins appx 30%. Wouldn't be that surprised if one of those showed a flat-bet profit.

For kicks I checked the last 3 days of the BOSS spot-play on PONYPICKERS at GPX. Looks good:



*not bad for a software program that retails for 34.99

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

For kicks I checked the last 3 days of the BOSS spot-play on PONYPICKERS at GPX. Looks good:



*not bad for a software program that retails for 34.99

Maybe you should charge $1500 and then you'll get respect

[upthecreek]

Another good day @OP on 1/29 for Best 5 consensus
8 listed winners , 5 exacta's using top 3
Late pick 4 and pick 5 right there for the taking $1466 and $3656

[NorCalGreg]

Nice work, Larry. Also, Houston has been outstanding lately. With all the layoff horses and shippers, etc, hard to find plays the usual way.
Played 3 pick-3's last night on small tickets using the Top T/J% ONLY...and managed to hit one for 💲95.50.

The "7F B3PST" play went 1 for 6, with a couple 2nd's.

01-29 SPEED DEMONS TOP BPST 7 - 7.5F

TAM 2ND THEJIGISUP 3-1 - 2nd
SA 4TH FORBIDDEN KINGDOM 5/2 💲9.80
SAM 6TH MISS EMPIREMENT 3/5 xxx
GPX 4TH POSITIVE REVIEW 9/2 xxx
GPX 8TH FAMILY TIME 20-1 xxx
DED 8TH FORESTDUNGONE 6-1 scratched
replaced by MISCHIEF'S MACHINE - 2nd


7F B3PST SPOT PLAY 01-30

GPX 7TH SIMPLIFY 20-1
SAM 1ST SUPPRESSOR 9/5

Not much going today, at all

[NorCalGreg]

Notice an "also" drew in in the 5th at OPX...since everything under the sun in horse racing angles, has been checked and re-checked a million times--this angle can't be profitable. They do seem to finish ITM a lot.

In the interest of science, and general curiousity...

5th race GRAND DESIGN 6-1 drew in

BEST-FIVE Contender Report for OPX:

[NorCalGreg]

Enjoy paying hundreds of dollars for webinars, ratings, pars, and everything else.
We don't need 'em:
PonyPicker and GPX continue to score:


.

[green80]

is this the same play as "new boss" in BEST 5?

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by green80

is this the same play as "new boss" in BEST 5?

.