Handicapping, Spot Plays, Software, etc

[geroge.burns99]

Glad your back and this thread should take off again....

And for the life of me , I still cant figure why I cant get back my old name back again....

[sharkey11]

hey NCG have you ever tryed any of gary brakerfields methods ? they seem very usefull but ive never tested any

[NorCalGreg]

Arthur Stanley may indeed be the author of Explosive Horse...and Dan Geer wrote PRL.

I've seen, and tried and few of Gary Brakerfield's methods, Sharkey. Most are decent, but if the choice is between his methods and Pandy's--go with Pandy's work.

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

I read this statement somewhere recently:

***50% of all maiden sprints are won by the horse with 1 of the top-2 speed ratings in today's race***

Can this be true? There is one bit of info missing from this statement: Is this from the last race--last 2--all time, this distance, what?

Using the PLATINUM program, I simply loaded appx the last 9 or 10 days of Santa Anita data, opened any maiden sprints run in that time period, and sorted by speed. Platinum Speed avgs the last two Bris ratings, so the top horse has the highest avg in the field.
Using all surfaces and distances--they simply had to be maiden sprints-even dreaded 7F races.

The results of this quick test were surprising...I'm hoping someone will continue this and report back his findings at other tracks.

SANTA ANITA MAIDENS-- TOP PLATINUM SPEED

SUGAR SUGAR - OUT
OUBABE - 2ND
ALIGATO - $5.40
WARREN'S QUEEN BEE - 2ND
SO VERY SMART $4.40
SUE ETTA'S GHOST $8.60
AFFABLE - $6.20
PICK YOUR BID $8.20
TONY ANN - $3.60
SCREAM AND SHOUT - $11.80

Interesting...obviously bears further study

Who's up for it?

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Also, yesterday's 1st at Parx there was this:


Claimed: Karen's Gem by Lake Scott (Home Team Stables and Sammy G. Stable) and Dustwhirl Wonder by Pino Michael (South View Stables)

DUSTWHIRL WONDER was the 2nd highest longshot (15-1) on the board--and claimed by the astute Michael Pino. Keep an eye on this one. They don't get claimed on a lark.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

I read this statement somewhere recently:

***50% of all maiden sprints are won by the horse with 1 of the top-2 speed ratings in today's race***

Can this be true? There is one bit of info missing from this statement: Is this from the last race--last 2--all time, this distance, what?


Interesting...obviously bears further study

Who's up for it?

-NCG

Here's a quick look FL...8 maiden sprints, 5 won by 1 or 2 speed ratings, the other 3 were FTS.

[Tom]

I have 64 races in my latest FL model.
33 were run by speed rating 1 or 2 last race, no matter what or when. 52%
41 were won by top 3 SR last race. 64%

[Tom]

From my latest Bel model.....9 maiden sprints on dirt, 7 winners 1 or 2 last out SR, and the other 2 were FTS.

[NorCalGreg]

Think we may have a spot play in the works, Tom. I like Finger Lakes since they don't have those pesky turf races to worry about.

I usually enter the Mnr. exacta contest at Horse Tourneys, but with only 3 entries showing, just not worth it. Costs $12 to buy in--and you have to beat out however many other players are in--to win maybe $40?

I just copy the Best-Five contenders right off the sheet, and generally do fairly well (when I do play)

Here's the Best-Five sheet I would have played, had there been more entries.

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by Tom

From my latest Bel model.....9 maiden sprints on dirt, 7 winners 1 or 2 last out SR, and the other 2 were FTS.

Hey Tom...How you like like using Google Sheets?

Any issues you run across?

Mike

[cloud9]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

I read this statement somewhere recently:

***50% of all maiden sprints are won by the horse with 1 of the top-2 speed ratings in today's race***

Can this be true? There is one bit of info missing from this statement: Is this from the last race--last 2--all time, this distance, what?

Using the PLATINUM program, I simply loaded appx the last 9 or 10 days of Santa Anita data, opened any maiden sprints run in that time period, and sorted by speed. Platinum Speed avgs the last two Bris ratings, so the top horse has the highest avg in the field.
Using all surfaces and distances--they simply had to be maiden sprints-even dreaded 7F races.

The results of this quick test were surprising...I'm hoping someone will continue this and report back his findings at other tracks.

SANTA ANITA MAIDENS-- TOP PLATINUM SPEED

SUGAR SUGAR - OUT
OUBABE - 2ND
ALIGATO - $5.40
WARREN'S QUEEN BEE - 2ND
SO VERY SMART $4.40
SUE ETTA'S GHOST $8.60
AFFABLE - $6.20
PICK YOUR BID $8.20
TONY ANN - $3.60
SCREAM AND SHOUT - $11.80

Interesting...obviously bears further study

Who's up for it?

-NCG

Greg are you using the Platinum speed ratings or the Bris speed ratings an are you averaging the last two rating or using the best of the last two ratings ?

[Tom]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

Hey Tom...How you like like using Google Sheets?

Any issues you run across?

Mike

Open Office

[Tom]

To answer a couple of questions I have gotten, I was using the BRIS ratings, right of the summary page, whatever that is.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by cloud9

Greg are you using the Platinum speed ratings or the Bris speed ratings an are you averaging the last two rating or using the best of the last two ratings ?

Hey Dennis:

PLATINUM shows the high of the last-2 Bris Speed...more effective than just using the last race SR only. If the last race was the higher of the last-2, then that would be listed. If the horse only has 1 race to his name-then that single rating would be used.

I misspoke yesterday--said Platinum avgs the last two, which of course, is incorrect.

TRAINER MOVES is a little more sophisticated. It takes the avg of the LAST-3 races. I haven't compared the effectiveness of one method vs the other, but I'm pretty sure avg of last-3 is the better rating.

I know you have the Platinum prog--perfectly fine to use the SR found there. Click and sort top-to-bottom, and there you are.

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by Tom

To answer a couple of questions I have gotten, I was using the BRIS ratings, right of the summary page, whatever that is.

by hand you enter stuff?