Handicapping, Spot Plays, Software, etc

[green80]

If I remember right, Oaklawn has a rule that if a horse has been off for a period of time and making his first start at oaklawn for the meet he can enter as ineligible to be claimed. This just applies to his first start of the meet. I will try to find the rule and report back.

[green80]

Here it is Greg:



WAIVER CLAIMING
2426A. At the time of entry into a claiming race, the owner (or trainer acting under
authorization from the owner) may opt to declare a horse ineligible to be claimed
provided: (a) the horse has not been an official starter in a race at any racetrack for a
minimum of sixty (60) days since its last race as an official starter; (b) the horse’s last race
as an official starter was a claiming race in which the horse was eligible to be claimed;
(c) the horse is entered for a claiming price equal to or greater than the claiming price at
which it last started as an official starter; (d) failure to declare the horse ineligible at the
time of entry may not be remedied; and (e) ineligibility to be claimed shall apply only to
the first start as an official starter following each such 60-day or longer layof

[NorCalGreg]

Interesting-thank you Mike. Figured it had to be something like that.

Still looking at OPX, was comparing the Speed Ratings in Speed Demons (best 3 of last 4)--to Bris Prime Power. Since I don't bet stakes and handicaps, I use a generous (in my opinion) 50 day max, since last out. If the top speed is coming off a layoff over 50 days-I look at the next highest rated. Bris Prime apparently doesn't penalize horses off a layoff. Obviously recent speed weighs heavily in Prime Power.

OPX TOP SPEED (BEST 3 OF L-4) W/IN 50 DAYS

1ST LORD DRAGON 20 DAYS $3.80
2ND ROLL DINERO ROLL 13 DAYS XXX
3RD WARTIME HERO--TOP-4 ALL LAYOFFS (NO BET)
4TH GALACTIC EMPIRE 29 DAYS $10.80
5TH U.S. STEEL 28 DAYS $9.60
6TH EXEMPLAR 23 DAYS 3RD
7TH ICY STARE DOWN 35 DAYS $6.20
8TH MUCHO 42 DAYS $4.60
9TH LONE ROCK 42 DAYS $5.60
10TH QUICK TO BLAME 35 DAYS 2ND

TOP PRIME POWER

1ST LORD DRAGON ✔️
2ND ROLL DINERO ROLL
3RD WARTIME HERO
4TH PURE ROCKET
5TH THE ROCK SAYS
6TH HOME RUN TRICK ✔️
7TH ICY STARE DOWN ✔️
8TH MUCHO ✔️
9TH LONE ROCK ✔️
10TH QUICK TO BLAME

Prime Power had, on top- 7 of 10 of my Best-3-of-4 Speed. Bris Prime doesn't factor layoff horses-as Platinum Power does.

Bris had 5 winners with their "everyone's welcome" style...while Speed Demons had 6 with the layoff rule. Good showings for both.

[Speed Figure]

Prime Power is based on whatever races that are listed in the horses's pp's. It does not take into account days since last race. GPX race 9 on 12-18-21 #9 is the top Prime Power coming off a 631 day layoff.

[upthecreek]

PonyPickers Easy winner had 5 plays @ Tam on Saturday 4 Won!


$9.40
$2.60
$9.00
$12.00

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Speed Figure

Prime Power is based on whatever races that are listed in the horses's pp's. It does not take into account days since last race. GPX race 9 on 12-18-21 #9 is the top Prime Power coming off a 631 day layoff.

Yeah....believe I just pointed that out.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by upthecreek

PonyPickers Easy winner had 5 plays @ Tam on Saturday 4 Won!


$9.40
$2.60
$9.00
$12.00

Using a min of 2-1 ML (even though AWESOME ANYWHERE was 9/5 ML, and yet paid $12.00 to win--he was eliminated yesterday for being under 2-1)-here's a quick check of results for Tampa in Dec:

[green80]

OPX TOP SPEED (BEST 3 OF L-4) W/IN 50 DAYS

1ST LORD DRAGON 20 DAYS $3.80
2ND ROLL DINERO ROLL 13 DAYS XXX
3RD WARTIME HERO--TOP-4 ALL LAYOFFS (NO BET)
4TH GALACTIC EMPIRE 29 DAYS $10.80
5TH U.S. STEEL 28 DAYS $9.60
6TH EXEMPLAR 23 DAYS 3RD
7TH ICY STARE DOWN 35 DAYS $6.20
8TH MUCHO 42 DAYS $4.60
9TH LONE ROCK 42 DAYS $5.60
10TH QUICK TO BLAME 35 DAYS 2ND


from another view, I was playing Speed Demons top LATE horse at OP (since it was a muddy track) and had 4 wins, same ones you had in the 1st, 6th and 8th plus the 3rd race winner at $35.60. I think you were 3 for 3 if you took the horse that was the top speed + top late.

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Sweet...way to work it Vinnie Ever since the question came up about Prime Power, I've been looking at it from different angles. Will report any findings a lil later.

Take a look at the following and fill me in, please--anyone:

There's a claiming "waiver" provision for claiming horses that have not started in X months and are entered back for the same price as their last race or higher in their first start back off the layoff.

Allows owner/trainer who've done the right thing by a horse in giving them some time off to not have it snatched away immediately upon return.

[green80]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Using a min of 2-1 ML (even though AWESOME ANYWHERE was 9/5 ML, and yet paid $12.00 to win--he was eliminated yesterday for being under 2-1)-here's a quick check of results for Tampa in Dec:

Why not use the minimum odds setting that most ADW's have? Set your odds at 2/1 @ 0 min to post and bet and forget.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by green80

Why not use the minimum odds setting that most ADW's have? Set your odds at 2/1 @ 0 min to post and bet and forget.

I stopped setting bet conditions after having been "burned" a few times using that. You get the odds that show as soon as it's 0 minutes to post (also known as "Post Time"). CTX, for example--in the later races, they're still walking the paddock at "Post Time".

We all have seen 3-1 or 4-1 horses at 0 minutes to post--end up going off at even money, 1-2, etc.

[green80]

Speed Demons trainer spot play had a couple of bombs yesterday at OP

6th Como Square $21.20

7th Truculent $20.80

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by green80

Speed Demons trainer spot play had a couple of bombs yesterday at OP

6th Como Square $21.20

7th Truculent $20.80

Nice

Looks like Greg's software is working well at Oaklawn

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by CheckMark

Nice

Looks like Greg's software is working well at Oaklawn

Yeah, so far anyway...with certain spot plays.

Speaking of certain spot plays...there is another Speed Demons spot that works well at Turf Paradise, and has for quite a while. Also AQ/Belmont, but haven't rechecked it lately. Couple years ago I hit a bomb at Belmont, paid over $80 to win. It was right there on the Winning Habit spot play.

Anyhoo, I switched my wagering acct back over to Twinspires. Few things I don't like about XB:

-having to check off the tracks I would like to see results for--max is 20. I didn't have OPX on my list, so never saw any results. I just thought Stronach had some petty beef with OPX, so they didn't show results. (I don't ever read directions, if I can help it)
-They don't have a complete breakdown of your wagers, by track and type of wager. Twinspires does this very well.

Not having been to the site in a few years, was surprised at all the changes. Much better than XB, in my opinion.
I swear I thought my balance was zero all this time. When I went to bet, found I had $65-- sitting there for years. Didn't even have to make a deposit--was only betting 4 spot plays at $10 a pop. Bet the 2 "Winning Habit" plays from TUP-and the two "Easy Money" plays at Parx.

[NorCalGreg]

The results from a check of December WINNING HABIT spot plays @ TUP: