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Old 03-05-2023, 11:12 AM   #31
classhandicapper
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Those obvious fast pace races for very inexperienced horses like in the Gotham can be tricky.

There are horses you almost certain are going to go and likely to suffer from the pace. You can toss those.

There are horses that have shown a willingness to rate and finish at shorter distances, but you don’t know if they can rate and finish going longer.

There are horses that can sit just off the pace going longer, but will they take back further or get drawn into pace if it gets extreme. If it’s fast but doesn’t get extreme, they may be in the perfect spot instead of disadvantaged. But if it’s extreme, they are at a big disadvantage.

There are horses you know are going to close and take advantage of the pace, but are they good enough if it doesn’t get extreme?

I’m sick that I screwed that one up. I overthought the race.
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Old 03-05-2023, 11:38 AM   #32
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
Those obvious fast pace races for very inexperienced horses like in the Gotham can be tricky.

There are horses you almost certain are going to go and likely to suffer from the pace. You can toss those.

There are horses that have shown a willingness to rate and finish at shorter distances, but you dont know if they can rate and finish going longer.

There are horses that can sit just off the pace going longer, but will they take back further or get drawn into pace if it gets extreme. If its fast but doesnt get extreme, they may be in the perfect spot instead of disadvantaged. But if its extreme, they are at a big disadvantage.

There are horses you know are going to close and take advantage of the pace, but are they good enough if it doesnt get extreme?

Im sick that I screwed that one up. I overthought the race.
Gotham was a chaos race going in.

14 to the gate in a 1 turn mile and 8 to 10 true front-running types (at least what we know thus far in their careers).

was an absolute must send, which meant would also send, and I saw the as the speed of the speed. That is exactly what happened, and other speed fell right in line behind.

I bet the across as my lone wager in the race and he stumbled at the break and lost his jock.

Serious congrats to TLG and CJ for nailing that race.
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Old 03-05-2023, 02:08 PM   #33
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Looking at the Kentucky Derby Points leaderboard, and it looks like 8 horses have already earned a starting spot:

1. Forte - 90 points
2. Practical Move - 60
3. Confidence Game - 57
4. Angel of Empire - 54
5. Raise Cain - 54
6. Rocket Can - 40
7. Red Route One - 33
8. Instant Coffee - 32

Maybe RRO, and IC aren't 'locked' in but 30+ has been safe thus far in past years. Something of particular note is all these 'qualifiers' thus far are stalkers to deep closers. No front-running types have yet to make the starting gate for this year's Kentucky Derby.
As with last year, the number to get in is likely to be lower than it was in 2021 and before. There were a number of races where few or no points were distributed because of Baffert entrants - thereby lowering the overall bar.
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Old 03-06-2023, 10:54 AM   #34
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Ben Colebrook comments on RC

When I really handicapped it, I liked it. I like the cutback angle in horse racing in general, especially this time of year when a lot of horses dont have much two-turn experience, Colebrook said. I thought it was a wide open race. It was definitely tough, but I thought a big field would help him, to be honest. Hes so laid back and hell do whatever a rider asks him. Hell fit through gaps and find holes. I kind of thought that would be a good thing, especially with all the pace. I would have rather had that than some monster in a short field.
His next start is either in Wood or Bluegrass
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Old 03-06-2023, 10:55 AM   #35
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I bet the across as my lone wager in the race and he stumbled at the break and lost his jock.

He was on my short list. I gave him serious consideration. I backed off because I didn't really love the field he beat last out. But it totally sucks you didn't even get a chance to find out.
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Old 03-06-2023, 10:56 AM   #36
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Man, looking at the payouts of the Gotahm and I'd feel cheated if I hit.

23/1 over 6/1 over 30/1. Top 2 favorites not in the Trifecta.

Ex is a mere $81.25 for $1
Tri a mere $367.25 for $.50

Prices should have been at least double that in a 14 horse field.
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Old 03-07-2023, 12:19 AM   #37
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The only ones that were not E or E/P were #2 (S) and #1 #15 (P)

Congrats Andy on the nice picks today!
I calculate my own Running Style. I had all except the 2 as E and the 2 was E/P; I don't recall ever seeing that in a large field. The 12 was tied for the lowest Quirin speed points at 4. And, I figured the 12 to be nowhere near the lead. A tough race to call, but the 12 did get the pace setup needed.
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Old 03-07-2023, 12:02 PM   #38
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Man, looking at the payouts of the Gotahm and I'd feel cheated if I hit.

23/1 over 6/1 over 30/1. Top 2 favorites not in the Trifecta.

Ex is a mere $81.25 for $1
Tri a mere $367.25 for $.50

Prices should have been at least double that in a 14 horse field.
Pretty stunning stats here regarding the Win pool vs Ex pools in the Gotham. In the last 30 seconds the computers hammered down the Ex payout from $138.75 to $81.25.

https://racingthinktank.com/blog/crw...-gotham-stakes
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Old 03-12-2023, 11:44 AM   #39
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John Battaglia: .... Sonny Leon worked his magic again in a last to first win, and all of the top 4 finishers may well be worth keeping an eye on as some likely move on to the Jack Ruby Steaksfor a Kentucky Derby bid on the line.
I don't know if you intended to do that, but I LOLed.
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Old 03-16-2023, 11:09 PM   #40
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I bet the across as my lone wager in the race and he stumbled at the break and lost his jock.

:
Hes running back at LRL on Saturday.
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Old 03-17-2023, 11:14 PM   #41
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I don't know if you intended to do that, but I LOLed.
It really is called "Steaks", but it is not named for the guy who shot Lee Harvey Oswald. It is the JEFF Ruby Steaks.
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Old 03-20-2023, 08:12 AM   #42
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Hes running back at LRL on Saturday.
Eek. Was a complete non-factor.

Seems to run better without a jockey.
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Old 03-21-2023, 11:04 AM   #43
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Eek. Was a complete non-factor.

Seems to run better without a jockey.
lmao

I intended to bet both him and the winner and box the exacta, but I got distracted playing OP. It cost me a few dollars by missing the race.

Even after all these years of playing I have no idea how to handle the performances of those riderless horses. He was damn good without the rider rushing up into the teeth of that fast pace and hanging around until the end. I guess we should have made a weight adjustment.
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Old 03-21-2023, 11:52 AM   #44
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lmao

I intended to bet both him and the winner and box the exacta, but I got distracted playing OP. It cost me a few dollars by missing the race.

Even after all these years of playing I have no idea how to handle the performances of those riderless horses. He was damn good without the rider rushing up into the teeth of that fast pace and hanging around until the end. I guess we should have made a weight adjustment.
Hard to know for sure about these undefeated horses running at smaller venues. He earned his chance, and the owners found out. Sometimes they blow up and become crazy good. Most just aren't up to the task like this one. Still a good horse, and he should have a good career in the Northeast cashing bank for the connections.

I like horses like him because he is kind of the dream of us little guys. $67K purchase, a couple of stakes wins already under his belt. He can still get better, but back to 1 turn and lesser competition for now.
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