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Old 02-18-2023, 10:46 AM   #1
PalaceOfFortLarned
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Kentucky Derby prep season heats up today with the first 50 point race and a virtual lock into the starting gate on the line. We also look to get a full field of 14 in what looks to be a pretty wide open race.

Quiet as Midnight: 50/1 ML tells the story here as this one needs massive improvement just to compete. Difficult to see even in the Superfecta.

Single Ruler: Took 5 tries to break his maiden, but that was a pretty solid race last out. Has ran 1 1/16th three times thus far, so an extra half furlong isn't much of a question. Still needs hefty improvement to catch a piece in here.

Shaq Diesel: 3 wins to date in 7 career races as he is one of the most experienced horses in the field. Previous jumps up in class haven't been very fruitful thus far. Needs decided improvement to contend.

Determinedly: Most experienced horse in the field with 8 races to date. Has beat several rivals in here already, and hasn't really ran a bad race to date. One to consider and owns a victory over this strip.

Harlocap: Solid resume thus far as he moves from the Baffert to Asmussen barn with breeding by Justify on top and Bodemeister on the bottom. Maiden-breaker last out was in impressive fashion. Another step forward and he is a definite contender.

Angel of Empire: Ran his best race to date in the Smarty Jones last out losing by 3 to the likely post time favorite in the Victory Formation. Has passed horses in every start to date, and one should expect him to move forward again in the Brad Cox barn. Dangerous entry that is a definite tote board watch to keep an eye on.

Sun Thunder: Solid breeding for this one that I don't think we've seen near his best yet. Shown a lot of promise in the mornings, can he put it together today?

Tapit's Conquest: Breeding alone makes him a contender, and he has shown well in his first 3 career starts thus far. Difficult horse to leave out of any vertical or horizontal wager. Serious contender.

Curly Jack: Has already ran in a number of big races including last year's Breeder's Cup Juvenile. Has fared well running against some of his generation's best to date. Still has to get better to win today. Prefer others.

Two Phil's: Last two races squarely make him a contender in here. His late pace figs are a concern for me here though as he stretches out to 9F.

Silver Heist: That was a pretty good effort last out in his 2nd career start. While he lost to a couple of contenders in here, he was making up ground. Has every right to move forward for Asmussen from that race. Another Tapit with some serious potential.

Crupi: The lone maiden in the field is 5(0-2-3) to date and has fired some really good races. Heavily bet in all 5 career starts and has already ran 9F two races ago. Would not be a surprising first time winner.

Victory Formation: The lone undefeated horse in the field will likely be the post time favorite. Not much to complain about, but he is certainly not the lone speed in the field, and the post position is a bit of a problem especially with a burner to his outside.

Private Creed: Switches to dirt for the first time off of a number of turf sprints. Will very likely be looking to get forward position in this field and present problems for the favorite just to his inside. Asmussen's third entry in the field could create some chaos for a number of others.
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Old 02-18-2023, 11:19 AM   #2
rastajenk
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Nicely done; especially the comments on the outside three.

Several of them at nice odds wouldn't be a bit surprising if one of them were to win.
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Old 02-18-2023, 11:36 AM   #3
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Nicely done; especially the comments on the outside three.

Several of them at nice odds wouldn't be a bit surprising if one of them were to win.
Thanks.

Very interesting race and I almost feel sorry for the ML oddsmaker. Really hard to put a line on a number of entries. Should be a fun tote board to watch.

Doubt we get the 15/1 on the . He feels like a 'wise guy' horse that could get a really good trip. Pletcher alone will drop his odds and Graham is riding great this meet.

Every horse through feels like they have a chance. Great betting race.
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Old 02-18-2023, 12:46 PM   #4
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I'll be the first to put my foot in my mouth. I see the (Tapit's Conquest) going off as the post time favorite. Some kind of luke warm 7/2 type.

Not a fan of how the pp's show Harlocap as "Previously trained by Baffert as of 1/22/23" while also printing Bob's 6 Furlong bullet at Santa Anita.

Personally going to toss both the & the and bet the on top of in the exacta. Honestly think the 13 runs off the board.

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Old 02-18-2023, 07:12 PM   #5
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Old 02-18-2023, 07:48 PM   #6
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Ate crow... I was wrong on the 8 being the post time favorite. (to be fair I was correct about the 13 running off the board)

As for my pick Crupi? probably just a bad bet. Live and learn.

There was horses all over the place... I'm gonna need some rest and the charts before looking that one over.
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Old 02-18-2023, 08:15 PM   #7
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Gotta love early season full-field preps. Sometimes they produce a Gun Runner or a Mandaloun, sometimes they don't. But they're usually full fields of connections giving it a shot.
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Old 02-19-2023, 12:16 PM   #8
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Ate crow... I was wrong on the 8 being the post time favorite. (to be fair I was correct about the 13 running off the board)

As for my pick Crupi? probably just a bad bet. Live and learn.

There was horses all over the place... I'm gonna need some rest and the charts before looking that one over.
Not sure I'm taking much out of that race/field. While the track did prove to be slow and tiring, the splits weren't crazy and about on par with the elders that ran in the 10th, and those horses finished up much much stronger.

Race really backed up with the top 5 finishers in 7th, 9th, 10th, 11th, and 12th at the first call. Sun Thunder may be the only one I'll look for moving forward and Harlocap finished a decent 6th while being a significant part of the early pace. Angle of Empire basically won almost by default as the only horse really doing any late running which are the kinds of races he is going to win.

The 2 Cox horses in Bishops Bay and First Mission in the 5th race are likely the ones to really follow going forward. Their 1:10.07 time was nearly 2 seconds faster than any 6F race of the day and significantly faster than the elders in the 10th that only ran 2.5F further. They were 5 clear of the 3rd place finisher who was was nearly 6 clear of the 4th placer finisher.
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Old 02-25-2023, 11:00 AM   #9
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Been working on a new racing project and finally got around to re-watching the replay from last week.

I think Two Phil's ran well... Well enough for me to keep an eye on.

At this point in time I'd almost just blindly bet on whatever horse Saez chooses to ride in this year's derby.
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