Having trouble making profitable bets?

[zico20]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

I just want to make his mind work, that's all.

Believe me I box 5 horses in sups in big fields, sometimes. However, I prefer to play supers when I have 2 or 3 opinions in a race.

Example: 4 will win the pace battle. Throw the 179 out as they will chase the 4. Then I truly believe the 2 will suck up and maybe the 5 will suck up.

Key 4 1st and 2nd (weighed out, 70% to the 4 on top, 30% 2nd) with the 2 AND 5 hitting the super BUT the 179 must run out.

Then I'll play a 4 / 2 / 36810 /36810 and a 4 / 36810 / 2/ 3 6 8 10 for a bit less as I would to be right in my 2 main opinions and lose the bet because the 3rd opinion was wrong.

Yes, this is a very solid way to play supers. Great advice!!

[Robert Fischer]

good stuff EMD4ME


Original poster has to remember that with a Superfecta, tracks take out 25% of the money before the race is even run.
You are competing with every other horseplayer to split up 75% of what you started with!

You had better feel that you know way more than the public about that race and how you will structure that opinion through the 4 finishing positions, if you want any chance to break even or get ahead.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Football-horse420

I have been handicapping horses for well over a year now and I seem to be missing something. I put 100 dollars a month into betting. I always bet with a past performances, I buy it a day in advance and really get into handicapping and look for things also before post time. I bet 10cent superfecta's usually 5 horse box bet, also bet quinellas, and show bets. At the end this really does not seem to be paying off if I'm lucky I brake even. What am I doing wrong? What do I need to put better bets together? What are my best bets to see improvement?
I do hope to make a bit of a living of this/ salary!! Any books a newbie like me should read?

Thanks for any and all help!!

2nd pice of advice....

Repeat after me....

The only time (in the US) that you will ever and I mean EVER play quinellas is if you are down to your last $2.92, you're able to find and .8 cent voucher on the floor AND you're able to play $1 Quinella BoX because you actually like 3 horses.

Other than that, there is ZERO reason to ever play a quinella.

Unless, of course, you're playing hong kong or 20 horse fields in japan.



Show....that's a different conversation. Only time I ever play to show is

1) against a bridge jumping horse.
2) As part of a 3-6 race parlay sequence.

[Bigadam119]

I posted a similar thread to the board back in September, got a ton of awesome advice. One that really stuck with me was from Ultracapper. I have posted it below. I used is as a starting point and have had a few profitable days since.

This running line is an example for a 6f race with a field of 12.

1st call 7th by 4 1/2
2nd call 8th by 5
3rd call 6th by 6
Finish 4th by 6 1/2

The 1st call is after 1/4 mile, the 2nd is after a half mile, the 3rd call is after 5/8th (or at the 1/8th pole, one furlong from the finish line), and the 4th call is the finish line. In this example, the horse improved 2 positions between the 1/4 pole (2nd call) and the 1/8 pole (3rd call, or what we call the "stretch call"). He also improved 2 positions between the 1/8 pole and the finish. Look for horses that improve 2 positions either between the 2nd and 3rd call, or between the 3rd call and finish (In this example, the horse improved 2 positions between each of those calls), and at that call that the horse improved 2 positions or more, he must be in the first half of the field. Meaning in a 12 horse field, he must be in 6th place or better (In this example, the horse again qualifies at both intervals).

In order to put your $5 across the board on a horse, he must improve at least 2 positions in either one of those calls, be in the top half of the field at the call in which he improved 2 or more positions, MUST NEVER BE MORE THAN 8 LENGTHS BEHIND THE LEADER, and must be 5/1 or higher. If you stick to this, you're going to cash some tickets, and some of them can be pretty good. Don't be shy if the horse is 10/1 or 12/1 or even 15/1, as the place and show payoffs on horses in those price ranges can be very rewarding. What you're looking for is horses that are moving forward in the field at competitive times of the race. The lengths behind aren't that important, as long as the horse isn't too far behind, and 8 lengths is about as far back as you want to be anytime in most races.

Remember, this is extremely rudimentary stuff. I've hardly given you the map to the Holy Grail here. But there are some things here that you're going to focus on that will, one day, be some of the real good tools in your handicapping tool box.

[Oracle]

With a $100 per month bankroll, I would recommend sticking with win wagers and exactas and try to build and learn.

Superfectas are highly advanced wagers for a newer player with a limited bankroll.

A win key and an exacta key on a non-favored horse would be a place I would recommend starting.

Good Luck!

[raybo]

As others have said, dump the 5 horse box superfectas. If you can't key less than 5 horses to win, then your handicapping needs much work. If your top 3 win contenders don't win at least 60% of the time (preferably higher), then your handicapping needs serious help. Sure, there are times when 5 horses on the win line might be ok, big races with big fields and big pools, etc., but generally, boxing 5 horses in normal sized races and pools costs too much over the long term. Also, only going 5 horses deep on the 3rd and 4th positions, in larger fields, is probably a horse or two shy on coverage (almost any horse in the field can finish 3rd or 4th just due to the running dynamics of the race.

Show bets, without parlaying, is almost guaranteed to lose money long term.

Quinellas, IMO, should be replaced with keyed exactas, with at least one of the two positions being only horses that are not in the top 3 on the tote at post time. Remember, many, many players will box, or otherwise cover the top 3 horses on the tote in exactas, and the aggregate payoffs will be lower than you need to profit over time.

If you want to start improving, concentrate on win and win/place - exacta handicapping. Honing those skills will open up the other bet types to you in the future.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by Football-horse420

I have been handicapping horses for well over a year now and I seem to be missing something. I put 100 dollars a month into betting. I always bet with a past performances, I buy it a day in advance and really get into handicapping and look for things also before post time. I bet 10cent superfecta's usually 5 horse box bet, also bet quinellas, and show bets. At the end this really does not seem to be paying off if I'm lucky I brake even. What am I doing wrong? What do I need to put better bets together? What are my best bets to see improvement?
I do hope to make a bit of a living of this/ salary!! Any books a newbie like me should read?

Thanks for any and all help!!

first thing you need to do is stop betting.
next test your play on say 200 races.
if you show a profit in 200 races, try doing it again.
if you still show a profit call me

one thing further, if you can not show a flat bet profit in the win pool, you probably can not win over a long number of races

[davew]

Do you keep records of your bets?
Do you review the horses that beat you out of your bet when you lose?

When you bet a dime superfecta 5 horse box, you are saying any of those 5 can win, and the other 4 will hold the next 3 spots.

I suggest to start betting those 5 horses $2 to win on each - no other bets in the race. You are still betting that one of your 5 will win, and other places will not matter. Your cashes will not be as big, but your percentage cashes will be higher.

After some practice, you will be able to start eliminating some of these horses and also some of the races from your bets. For example you have 3 relatively equal horses you really like to win - at AQU in a 7 horse field their odds may be 3/2, 9/5, 5/2 - at GP in a 12 horse field their odds may be 7/2, 5/1, 9/1.

I would pass one of these races and bet the other. Risking a bet to cash a ticket that breaks even, is not a good idea. You have probably been doing a very similar thing with a 5 horse superfecta boxes.

[Football-horse420]

Thanks so much everyone for all this awesome feedback you are giving me. I always go back and review the race win or after getting beat , I review to see who did what and how it all unfolded so I can better point things out the next time.
I guess what everyone is telling me is I should go with the basics and just work with win bets and win place bets and exacta/ and exacta boxes???
Any books a newbie like me should read???

Thanks for all this awesome feedback!!!

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Football-horse420

Any books a newbie like me should read???

Sure!

http://www.amazon.com/Handicapping-1...ords=brad+free

http://www.amazon.com/Winning-Horsep...ng+horseplayer

[stu]

Originally Posted by Football-horse420

Any books a newbie like me should read???

You are on the right track by wanting to learn more by reading.

I recommend that you take a month off and spend the $100 on some the many handicapping books if your local library doesn't have any.

I recommend starting with the following since your goal is make money:

http://www.amazon.ca/Money-Secrets-A...ct_top?ie=UTF8

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by Football-horse420

Thanks so much everyone for all this awesome feedback you are giving me. I always go back and review the race win or after getting beat , I review to see who did what and how it all unfolded so I can better point things out the next time.
I guess what everyone is telling me is I should go with the basics and just work with win bets and win place bets and exacta/ and exacta boxes???
Any books a newbie like me should read???

Thanks for all this awesome feedback!!!

B Fabricand "Horse Sense"..Everything you need to know to analyze your betting dollars.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Football-horse420

I guess what everyone is telling me is I should go with the basics and just work with win bets and win place bets and exacta/ and exacta boxes???

Yes, I think that is the crux of what most here are telling you. The basics must be mastered, or at least competently understood, before moving to the more esoteric skills. The projected winner is extremely important, regardless of where your play evolves to, in that the projected winner must first be analyzed in order to start the seeking of "value" in individual races. If, for example, the projected winner is very low priced, then you must decide if you can get value by using him/her in combination with other, more higher priced horses, to obtain value in the bet. Can that projected winner be bet against, logically? Are there others that have better prices while offering nearly the same winning probability? Can you make a strong case for any of those others to win the race based on how the race might unfold? Can you use the low priced projected winner as a saver for a more potentially profitable wager that does not include that projected winner?

So, ascertaining the projected winner doesn't mean that you have to bet that horse to win, and it doesn't mean that you must bet against it winning. But, it does mean that you must start with that horse in order to know how to properly approach betting the race, or if you should simply pass the race entirely, and save your money for another, more potentially profitable opportunity.

[Dave Schwartz]

B Fabricand "Horse Sense"..Everything you need to know to analyze your betting dollars.

IMHO, that is very outdated.

The entire concept may very well have been faulty to begin with. In fact, a friend from many years ago who attempted to write a program found that there were actually rules that were in contradiction.

At the very least, the odds table-while a wonderful work for its time-is drastically out of date.

[Track Phantom]

Horse racing is similar to golf in many ways. I've played with guys that can drive it 320 yards but have no iron game and three-putt every green. When we go to the range, you guessed it, they spend all their time crushing it with their driver.

I would say handicapping is you off the tee. Discipline is you from the fairway to the green. Putting, of course, is your wagering. All three are part of the game but require different skill sets.

When you're looking at a race, the first thing you should ask yourself is "who is the separator in this race". Which horse or horses can eliminate much of your competition, thus enhancing your payout. For the most part, when you watch TVG, they hone in on low priced runners and exclude most everything else. If you find yourself with this mentality, quit. The game is almost solely about finding value that others overlook. Grinding out $22 profits off of $12 bets will eliminate your bankroll quickly.

Second, with such a small bankroll, you have to get the most bang for your buck. $100 per month is nearly impossible to win with betting exotics unless you get very lucky early on. With $100, I would find a few races where I think the favorite can be beat (like today's Southwest Stakes, hate Collected in there, good race to find value). I may bet something like $3 win on a runner and $1 exacta over and under 2 or 3 others.

There is no magic formula. You can enhance your approach by reading some of the many well-written, informative books and articles that are out there.

Finally, ask yourself what your goal is by playing this game. Your approach would be significantly different if you're trying to profit over the long haul vs hitting something huge on any given day. That $100, at the end of the month, while likely gone, should have been worth the investment and given you and outside chance at something significant (or at least kept you in the game).