KEEN ICE!!!

[onefast99]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

1) I am a HUGE FAN of the sport, not just a $500,000-$700,000 a year horseplayer.

How many non fans, sit and watch races from the 70's, 80's, 90's, 2000
s over and over again and CRY, YES CRY as they remember those races like they were yesterday?????

How many non fans, sit and watch trips and traps as they fell asleep every single night???

How many non fans, devote most of their free time to this game???

How many non fans, travel to 20-30 racetracks, BY CAR, just to see the track in person????

How many non fans, visit horse farms just to pet the horses and ride them??????

How many non fans, drive in their car and scream go left handed as they pass a stupid slow driver in the left lane????

How many non fans, wish it could have been possible that Ramon Dominguez could visit his mother as she suffers through 2 CRANIOTOMIES and brain damage to her brain??????

How many non fans, would try and get a job in the horse industry because they love the game and not for the salary involved?????

How many non fans, have watched the 1995 BCC 500,0000 times over and over and over and over and over and over again?????

How many non fans, have tried to find the 1 horse racing video game to the point where they went to every store in NYC to find one (back in the 90's and 2000's)??????????

How many non fans, drove to Penn National once a month, for 10 years, partially to smell the smell of horse shit ???????? (I LIVE 4 HOURS AWAY IN NY).

How many non fans, STAND UP FOR THE NATIONAL ANTHEM at 12:00, despite being at HOME AND NOT AT THE TRACK???

How many non fans, created lyrics for the National Anthem, that ARE ALL HORSE RACING WORDS????

How many non fans, tell their girlfriend, EMD4ME wants to go to the store for you now BUT Jerry Bailey says NO, NOT YET.

How many non fans, GO TO THE TRACK 156 times a year???????

How many non fans, run on the treadmill and when they get tired, tell themselves to, DIG DOWN DEEP????

How many non fans, time their walk from the car to the office and when it comes up in 44 seconds, say to themselves, I COULD WIN THE BC SPRINT????

How many non fans, google, closed racetracks and read up on closed tracks from yesteryear??????

How many non fans, wish they could've been at Shenandoah Downs, Bowie just once when the game was king????

How many non fans, try and walk a straight line on the sidewalk so they don't drift out and get DQ'd???

For people to claim, I am not a fan of this game, is a tragedy.

You want me to be blunt? I pay for the salaries of 10 FT employees at Aqueduct. How many of YOU can say that? I support this game with MY time, my love for it, my churning and all because I state the obvious to an intelligent professional horseplayer's eye, I get attacked?

2) Just because I critique a horse's trips and his ability with a microscope does not make me classless. He is NOT a great horse in my eyes.

3) I'll say it point blank and I've detailed why since prior to his Derby, after his Derby win, before his Preakness, after his Preakness, before his Belmont and after his Belmont.

His Triple Crown achievement is one of the weakest accomplishments that I have ever seen. He is over rated, period.

It's not his fault his competition in each race either was 1) weak or 2) lost all shot due to racing luck BUT

Overall, he was one lucky horse in each of his 3 Triple Crown wins. I have detailed why, with a pin point laser. If you disagree, no problem.

BUT DON'T EVER, QUESTION ME BEING A FAN OF THIS GAME.

How many times have you paid the salary of those NYRA workers by winning a race because you got lucky? You have a great passion for this game, no doubt, but please stop the "I'm the greatest show on earth" routine, thanks.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Steve R

You may be confidant but that doesn't make you right. I just watched the race again and Denman makes no reference to any problems the mare may have had other than that she was slow into stride (as always) while describing the pace as "very solid early".

Zenyatta was almost always a tad slow out of the gate and then slow to get into stride. But if you watch the race CAREFULLY, you will see that she got squeezed at the start and started climbing briefly soon after as she was getting hit with kickback (something she hadn't experienced in her previous 2 starts on dirt). As she got progressively more distanced, Smith "used" her to get back into contact with the field near the first turn and she mostly had a good trip after that. In some post race commentary, Smith flat out said she didn't like the kickback. He didn't use that as an excuse. It was just an observation. He actually blamed himself for the ride - though I thought he gave her a good ride. Having a negative reaction to kickback is not an unusual reaction for a horse not experienced with it. Given the margin, IMO it almost certainly was the difference. She briefly dropped even further back than she would have and then had to be used to get back in it.

[Tom]

The Travers was the 11th race, you know this, right?

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

EMD4ME,

The problem is not with your analysis of the Travers (though I disagree with you on some of the details). It's that you are throwing out an entire career of domination and concluding that a single subpar effort justifies diminishing the performances before that.

The horse that lost the Travers was not the same horse that won the Haskell or Triple Crown. We may never get to see that same horse. He may not run again. And even if he does, he may already be over the the top and unable to move back forward and develop as he would have. It's not that unusual for horses to wear down after a tough campaign. It happens. When it does, that does not diminish what happened before that.

It is my contention, that this horse has had cupcake trips in all but 2 of his races. (Exclude his maiden loss from all talking points).

He has dominated his competition, which has made them look totally inferior, yes, I give that.

However, in the 2 races where he faced a modicum of stress, NOT REAL stress, a pinch of stress, he no longer was the dominant force.

His Derby was not amazing to me. He had a fantastic post. He was lucky he wasn't accordioned out. When have you ever seen a derby run 321????

A 3 speed number in the derby???

That happened because 10 horses were accordioned into trip death.

He had a nice 3 wide trip, stalking two horses that are no superstars by any means. He was all out in pedestrian closing time to outslow firing line. (Plus he needed to tap firing line at the 1/16 to seel the deal).

His 2 races with any stress, any challenge, exposed him.

They were not bounces. They were not "he wasn't on his A game today". Those 2 races are the 2 races to judge him on.

I don't care what a horse does when he has inferior competition or a perfect trip. To me, those are his ceiling races. Can't do better than that.

I care to see what a horse does when tested.

To me, in both races where he faced and I can't stress the following words enough, A TIDBIT of stress, he wasn't the same.

It boggles my mind what would happen if he actually had any real adversity to overcome. He would be off the board.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by onefast99

How many times have you paid the salary of those NYRA workers by winning a race because you got lucky? You have a great passion for this game, no doubt, but please stop the "I'm the greatest show on earth" routine, thanks.

To answer your question, I guess I've been getting lucky for about 25 years.

I find your last statement extremely insulting.

You attack me, I defend. What's the matter bully? You don't like being pushed back with facts?

I could care less about being the greatest show on earth or whatever that is supposed to mean.

All I care about is discussing our passion, this game.

You want to disagree, that's great. Don't forget we are betting against eachother and I prefer everyone disagree with me. But don't attack me personally.

Besides telling grits what I think of her, after her personally insulting me 4 or 5 times, I NEVER EVER say anything about any one on here. So, I ask of you to be respectful in return.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Tom

The Travers was the 11th race, you know this, right?

Yup. I'm glad we see it different. More value for you or I.

[onefast99]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

To answer your question, I guess I've been getting lucky for about 25 years.

I find your last statement extremely insulting.

You attack me, I defend. What's the matter bully? You don't like being pushed back with facts?

I could care less about being the greatest show on earth or whatever that is supposed to mean.

All I care about is discussing our passion, this game.

You want to disagree, that's great. Don't forget we are betting against eachother and I prefer everyone disagree with me. But don't attack me personally.

Besides telling grits what I think of her, after her personally insulting me 4 or 5 times, I NEVER EVER say anything about any one on here. So, I ask of you to be respectful in return.

Just tone it down a bit! Enjoy...

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Zenyatta was almost always a tad slow out of the gate and then slow to get into stride. But if you watch the race CAREFULLY, you will see that she got squeezed at the start and started climbing briefly soon after as she was getting hit with kickback (something she hadn't experienced in her previous 2 starts on dirt). As she got progressively more distanced, Smith "used" her to get back into contact with the field near the first turn and she mostly had a good trip after that. In some post race commentary, Smith flat out said she didn't like the kickback. He didn't use that as an excuse. It was just an observation. He actually blamed himself for the ride - though I thought he gave her a good ride. Having a negative reaction to kickback is not an unusual reaction for a horse not experienced with it. Given the margin, IMO it almost certainly was the difference. She briefly dropped even further back than she would have and then had to be used to get back in it.

Who's fault is that? The trainer for not exposing more her to more dirt racing, that's who.

They chose to protect her, that's one of the repurcussions of protecting her on polytrack for most of her starts.

As for the grand scheme of things, (who was better?) if a horse can't handle kickback or can't handle dirt, do they really deserve to win the biggest race of the year?

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by onefast99

Just tone it down a bit! Enjoy...

You too.......No hard feelings

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

It is my contention, that this horse has had cupcake trips in all but 2 of his races. (Exclude his maiden loss from all talking points).

He has dominated his competition, which has made them look totally inferior, yes, I give that.

However, in the 2 races where he faced a modicum of stress, NOT REAL stress, a pinch of stress, he no longer was the dominant force.

His Derby was not amazing to me. He had a fantastic post. He was lucky he wasn't accordioned out. When have you ever seen a derby run 321????

A 3 speed number in the derby???

That happened because 10 horses were accordioned into trip death.

He had a nice 3 wide trip, stalking two horses that are no superstars by any means. He was all out in pedestrian closing time to outslow firing line. (Plus he needed to tap firing line at the 1/16 to seel the deal).

His 2 races with any stress, any challenge, exposed him.

They were not bounces. They were not "he wasn't on his A game today". Those 2 races are the 2 races to judge him on.

I don't care what a horse does when he has inferior competition or a perfect trip. To me, those are his ceiling races. Can't do better than that.

I care to see what a horse does when tested.

To me, in both races where he faced and I can't stress the following words enough, A TIDBIT of stress, he wasn't the same.

It boggles my mind what would happen if he actually had any real adversity to overcome. He would be off the board.

I agree that getting tested against the best horses and overcoming rough trips are what separate the champions from the wannabees. But IMO you are misdiagnosing the trips.

He lost a ton of ground against Dortmund and Firing Line. I still think they are the 2nd and 3rd best 3yos of this crop. Perhaps one or both will eventually make it back to full strength and demonstrate that, but we don't know. Was it a killer trip? No. But it was no cakewalk spotting that much ground against those 2 even if the paths off the rail were best that day.

In the Preakness, he set a very fast pace and put away all the chasers before drawing off in hand. It was a goofy race because of the slop, but it was NOT an easy trip cutting that pace. Look what happened to the chasers.

This horse has had only had a handful of races and had passed every test easily. If I thought the Travers trip was easy (it was not) or that he had given his best there and failed, I'd be hesitant about dismissing the loss. But the middle pace was hot, IMO he was not on the best part of the track, and IMO that was not the same horse we saw at Monmouth.

So IMO, you dismiss it, you look at the total body of work, and draw a conclusion.

IMO, it's impossible to put him up there with Slew, Affirmed, Bid, Forego etc... because they did so much more over time, but there is no reason to go to an extreme in the other direction. He's already done way more than all but of handful of horses.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I agree that getting tested against the best horses and overcoming rough trips are what separates the champions from the wannabees. But IMO you are misdiagnosing the trips.

He lost a ton of ground against Dortmund and Firing Line. I still think they are the 2nd and 3rd best 3yos of this crop. Perhaps one or both will eventually make it back to full strength and demonstrate that, but we don't know. Was it a killer trip? No. But it was no cakewalk spotting that much ground against them even if the paths off the rail were best that day.

In the Preakness, he set a very fast pace and put away all the chasers before drawing off in hand. It was a goofy race because of the slop, but it was NOT an easy trip cutting that pace. Look what happened to the chasers.

This horse has had only had a handful of races and had passed every test easily. If I thought the Travers trip was easy (it was not) or that he had given his best there and failed, I'd be hesitant about dismissing the loss. But middle pace was hot, IMO he was not on the best part of the track, and IMO that was not the same horse we saw at Monmouth.

So IMO, you dismiss it, you look at the total body of work, and draw a conclusion.

IMO, it's impossible to put him up there with Slew, Affirmed, Bid, Forego etc... because they did so much more over time, but there is no reason to go to an extreme in the other direction. He's already done way more than all but of handful of horses.

So, is it safe to say that Cigar had brutal trips every time he stalked 3 wide off 2 inferior horses?

I would say no. A 3 wide stalk has always been one of the fairest trips and easiest trips to have off of 2 speeds. You decide when you want to go, so the stress level is less, especially when there isn't a horse sitting in the pocket waiting to angle out and pounce.

Yes, he technically traveled farther in the Derby vs. FL and D. But I don't see that as some sort of heroic overcoming of a bad trip.

Ask Frosted and 9 others how much ground they lost being accordioned to trip death under the stands the first time. Ask those same 10 horses how many lengths they lost on checks after the accordion happened. Ask them how much ground they lost on the 2 turns, IMHO.

His Preakness was a joke, come on. D was pulled out of his way right at the start. FL drowned in the slop as he stumbled in the 1st stride. The rest were totally inferior foes. If you told me PPS 34567 were running in an ALW race, I would believe you.

The Belmont was a joke as well. Materiality was sick and done. Frosted had every chance to take AP's path in the FIRST stride and he didn't (AP broke a hair slow). Any horse can go to the lead in a 12F race. Even a plodder could be hustled to go as the pace is so slow at that distance. No one went. All this talk of he brushed off the challengers like flies on the far turn is non sense. When a good horse gets a clear lead and jogs for the first 70% part of the race, any horse coming at him will need rocket boosters to get close as the leader will simply let out his/her reserves and maintain the advantage. Yes, he was best that day but best with the perfect trip.

All I kept asking for was show you're the best with some stress, with some adversity, with something to overcome.

In the 2 times he's mildly had that "stress" he barely came home in the Derby (very lucky there wasn't a horse who wasn't destroyed early to come suck him up) and he didn't have enough to complete the Travers.

As far as the rail not being the place to be. Please take an additional look at all the dirt races (pan and head on, with PP's in view) to see just how quick the track got for race 8 and then on and how the rail improved tremendously for those same races.

[castaway01]

Really good post Class

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by Tommy Tom

Keen Ice was my key horse and I wheeled him 2nd in the Tri for a buck...I felt if he wins the best chance for a big pay day was to use him in the pk 3 with ALL-ALL-7 for a buck....hoping for a bomb of course but no such luck...

I figured if instead I wheeled him on top in the Tri for a buck and if AP got 2nd the tri would not be huge like a possible Pk 3 would be

I wanted to key on the top 2 jockeys at Saratoga...Irad or Javier and when I saw Javier was aboard Keen Ice that made my mind up as I liked Keen Ice in his previous races and here we were at Saratoga, distance and what better jockey than Javier on Keen Ice the closer.

But to bad for me having ALL-ALL in the first 2 legs of the Pk 3 had favorites win and not one bomb or even a long shot

EDIT I am having all kinds of trouble getting into my NY Rewards account but I just now did get in and see just over $200.00 in my account so that must be what the pick 3 paid for a buck

Nice call on Keen Ice. But you really picked the wrong pool. You singled him at a cost of $72 and got back about $220. A $72 win bet would've returned over $1,150. We are conditioned to believe that multi race bets are ALWAYS better, because there's one takeout spread out over 3 races. This is definitely one instance where that was not the case.

[Tom]

I would say no. A 3 wide stalk has always been one of the fairest trips and easiest trips to have off of 2 speeds.

Not around the clubhouse turn.

[OntheRail]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

1) I am a HUGE FAN of the sport, not just a $500,000-$700,000 a year horseplayer.

How many non fans, sit and watch races from the 70's, 80's, 90's, 2000
s over and over again and CRY, YES CRY as they remember those races like they were yesterday?????

How many non fans, sit and watch trips and traps as they fell asleep every single night???

How many non fans, devote most of their free time to this game???

How many non fans, travel to 20-30 racetracks, BY CAR, just to see the track in person????

How many non fans, visit horse farms just to pet the horses and ride them??????

How many non fans, drive in their car and scream go left handed as they pass a stupid slow driver in the left lane????

How many non fans, wish it could have been possible that Ramon Dominguez could visit his mother as she suffers through 2 CRANIOTOMIES and brain damage to her brain??????

How many non fans, would try and get a job in the horse industry because they love the game and not for the salary involved?????

How many non fans, have watched the 1995 BCC 500,0000 times over and over and over and over and over and over again?????

How many non fans, have tried to find the 1 horse racing video game to the point where they went to every store in NYC to find one (back in the 90's and 2000's)??????????

How many non fans, drove to Penn National once a month, for 10 years, partially to smell the smell of horse shit ???????? (I LIVE 4 HOURS AWAY IN NY).

How many non fans, STAND UP FOR THE NATIONAL ANTHEM at 12:00, despite being at HOME AND NOT AT THE TRACK???

How many non fans, created lyrics for the National Anthem, that ARE ALL HORSE RACING WORDS????

How many non fans, tell their girlfriend, EMD4ME wants to go to the store for you now BUT Jerry Bailey says NO, NOT YET.

How many non fans, GO TO THE TRACK 156 times a year???????

How many non fans, run on the treadmill and when they get tired, tell themselves to, DIG DOWN DEEP????

How many non fans, time their walk from the car to the office and when it comes up in 44 seconds, say to themselves, I COULD WIN THE BC SPRINT????

How many non fans, google, closed racetracks and read up on closed tracks from yesteryear??????

How many non fans, wish they could've been at Shenandoah Downs, Bowie just once when the game was king????

How many non fans, try and walk a straight line on the sidewalk so they don't drift out and get DQ'd???

For people to claim, I am not a fan of this game, is a tragedy.

You want me to be blunt? I pay for the salaries of 10 FT employees at Aqueduct. How many of YOU can say that? I support this game with MY time, my love for it, my churning and all because I state the obvious to an intelligent professional horseplayer's eye, I get attacked?

2) Just because I critique a horse's trips and his ability with a microscope does not make me classless. He is NOT a great horse in my eyes.

3) I'll say it point blank and I've detailed why since prior to his Derby, after his Derby win, before his Preakness, after his Preakness, before his Belmont and after his Belmont.

His Triple Crown achievement is one of the weakest accomplishments that I have ever seen. He is over rated, period.

It's not his fault his competition in each race either was 1) weak or 2) lost all shot due to racing luck BUT

Overall, he was one lucky horse in each of his 3 Triple Crown wins. I have detailed why, with a pin point laser. If you disagree, no problem.

BUT DON'T EVER, QUESTION ME BEING A FAN OF THIS GAME.

Ok Buddy if you say your a fan... your a fan ( couple of bent blades ) ... but also a.



Enjoy your day...