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10-07-2021, 11:50 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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MLF bet or pass
We all know the favorite in a race is the most likely winner and, in the absence of good handicapping, is also the bet that looses the least money long-term.
Almost all exotic bets require an answer to the question - Is the favorite a bet or a pass. If you are a serial bettor, it is important to decide this for each race and if vertical exotics are your thing, you must decide whether or not to use the favorite on top, in the place or show slot or to pass on it altogether.
I have been testing this yes and no question and think I can identify some favorites which are are more likely to win both in frequency and in dollars returned. To keep myself honest and to test the system going forward, I plan to post my picks here. Since I do not plan to watch the board, I will use the morning line favorite. There will be 3 categories: 1) win bets of the MLF's I like. 2) win bets of the MLF's I think are bad bets. and 3) win bets on the horse I like when the MLF is a toss.
To eliminate decimals, I will be making phantom $20 bets in each of these categories.
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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10-07-2021, 12:16 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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10/7/21
Bet these morning line favorites to win
Bel 3----#6
Bel 5----#3
Bel 7----#7
Bel 9----#13
GP 3-----#3
GP 5-----#6
GP 7-----#2
WO 3----#2
WO 7----#6
Do not bet these MLF
Bel 2-----#2
Bel 6-----#8
Bel 8-----#3
GP 1-----#3
GP 2-----#2
GP 6-----#9
GP 8-----#7
WO 1----#2
WO 2----#2
WO 4----#3
WO 5----#5
WO 6----#2
WO 8----#6
Consider these instead of MLF
Bel 2-----#7
Bel 6-----#2
Bel 8-----#1
GP 1-----#1
GP 2-----#1
GP 6-----#1
GP 8-----#5
WO 1----#6
WO 2----#8
WO 4----#10
WO 5----#10
WO 6----#1
WO 8----#1
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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10-07-2021, 05:44 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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10/7/21
Bet these morning line favorites to win
Bel 3----#6----place
Bel 5----#3---$3.30
Bel 7----#7
Bel 9----#13---show
GP 3-----#3---show
GP 5-----#6---place
GP 7-----#2---$4.40
WO 3----#2
WO 7----#6---$4.50
3/9 = -$58
Do not bet these MLF
Bel 2-----#2---pl
Bel 6-----#8---sh
Bel 8-----#3---$5.80
GP 1-----#3---pl
GP 2-----#2---$5.00
GP 6-----#9---$9.40
GP 8-----#7---sh
WO 1----#2---pl
WO 2----#2---sh
WO 4----#3
WO 5----#5---$12.60
WO 6----#2---sh
WO 8----#6
4/13 = +$68
Consider these instead of MLF
Bel 2-----#7
Bel 6-----#2
Bel 8-----#1---pl
GP 1-----#1---sh
GP 2-----#1
GP 6-----#1---pl
GP 8-----#5---$14.80
WO 1----#6---sh
WO 2----#8---scratched
WO 4----#10
WO 5----#10
WO 6----#1---$17.00
WO 8----#1---$11.20
3/12 = +$190
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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10-08-2021, 12:17 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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10/8/21
Bet these morning line favorites to win
Bel 5----#10
Bel 7----#2
Bel 9----#6
Kee 2---#9
Kee 4---#3
Kee 8---#6
WO 4----#3
WO 7----#3
WO 8---#7
SA 2----#5
SA 6---#7
SA 9---#4
Do not bet these MLF
Bel 1-----#2
Bel 2-----#8
Bel 4-----#1
Bel 6-----#3
Bel 8-----#4
Bel 9-----#5
Kee 3----#5
Kee 5----#2
Kee 6----#6
Kee 7----#4
Kee 9----#1
Kee 10---#9
WO 1----#12
WO 2----#3
WO 3----#9
WO 5----#7
WO 6----#1
SA 1-----#7
SA 3-----#1
SA 4-----#10
SA 5-----#6
SA 7-----#1
SA 8-----#9
Consider these in place of rejected ones:
Bel 1-----#4
Bel 2-----#9
Bel 4-----#8
Bel 6-----#6
Bel 8-----#7
Bel 9-----#6
Kee 3----#1
Kee 5----#1
Kee 6----#5
Kee 7----#1
Kee 9----#2
Kee 10---#2
WO 1----#11
WO 2----#4
WO 3----#6
WO 5----#3
WO 6----#7
SA 1-----#4
SA 3-----#2
SA 4-----#5
SA 5-----#3
SA 7-----#6
SA 8-----#4
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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10-09-2021, 12:42 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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10/8/21
Bet these morning line favorites to win
Bel 5----#10---pl
Bel 7----#2----sh
Bel 9----#6----88
Kee 2---#9---out
Kee 4---#3---pl
Kee 8---#6----44
WO 4----#3---out
WO 7----#3----25
WO 8----#7---out
SA 2----#5----50
SA 6----#7----pl
SA 9----#4----pl
4/12 = -$33
Do not bet these MLF
Bel 1-----#2---40
Bel 2-----#8---out
Bel 4-----#1---77
Bel 6-----#3---59
Bel 8-----#4---out
Bel 9-----#5---pl
Kee 3----#5---out
Kee 5----#2---96
Kee 6----#6---out
Kee 7----#4---pl
Kee 9----#1---68
Kee 10---#9---pl
WO 1----#12--scratched
WO 2----#3----pl
WO 3----#9----out
WO 5----#7----pl
WO 6----#1---pl
SA 1-----#7---out
SA 3-----#1---out
SA 4-----#10--sh
SA 5-----#6---out
SA 7-----#1---60
SA 8-----#9---out
6/22 = -$30
Consider these in place of rejected ones:
Bel 1-----#4---out
Bel 2-----#9---pl
Bel 4-----#8---out
Bel 6-----#6---out
Bel 8-----#7---out
Bel 9-----#6---88
Kee 3----#1---pl
Kee 5----#1---sh
Kee 6----#5---pl
Kee 7----#1---out
Kee 9----#2---out
Kee 10---#2---out
WO 1----#11--out
WO 2----#4---out
WO 3----#6---61
WO 5----#3---out
WO 6----#7---out
SA 1-----#4---out
SA 3-----#2---pl
SA 4-----#5---out
SA 5-----#3---pl
SA 7-----#6---out
SA 8-----#4---out
2/22 = -$291
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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10-09-2021, 10:28 AM
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#6
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Interesting
You are doing well at this.
Obviously you have some methods that are bringing you to an opinion.
semantics - I call those methods 'models'
and they are the crux of success in this idea. When you find which ones are really impactful, and have the patience to search them out and wait them out, it gives some chance at having a positive angle.
old spiel ;
The most elementary, important insight, related to our Pari-mutuel System, is the fact that our system is 'Favorite-Centric'. By definition, the favorite has the largest market share of each pool. In order to overcome the takeout (often 15-25% taken out of pools before payouts are calculated), you absolutely must be right about the favorite. If that isn't already obvious, let that sink in. Every horse has a bucket of money in front of it. The BIG BUCKET is in front of the Favorite.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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10-09-2021, 11:37 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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10/09/21
Bet these MLF to win:
Kee 3---#8
Kee 4---#1
Kee 6---#2
Kee 7---#6
Kee 8---#3
Kee 9---#1
WO 1---#3
WO 2---#10
WO 6---#10
WO 7---#8
WO 9---#4
WO 10--#6
SA 7---#4
SA 9---#11
Pass These MLF's:
Kee 1---#5
Kee 2---#5
Kee 10--#10
Kee 11--#7
WO 3----#2
WO 4----#9
WO 5----#9
WO 8----#4
SA 3----#9
SA 5----#8
SA 6----#4
SA 8----#6
Alternates when passing MLF:
Kee 1---#8
Kee 2---#7
Kee 10--#4
Kee 11--#10
WO 3----#5
WO 4----#2
WO 5----#8
WO 8----#5
SA 3----#2
SA 5----#9
SA 6----#1
SA 8----#7
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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10-10-2021, 12:01 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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10/09/21
Bet these MLF to win:
Kee 3---#8---sh
Kee 4---#1---out
Kee 6---#2---30
Kee 7---#6---42
Kee 8---#3---out
Kee 9---#1---pl
WO 1---#3---out
WO 2---#10--pl
WO 6---#10--68
WO 7---#8---out
WO 9---#4---33
WO 10--#6---sh
SA 7---#4---out
SA 9---#11---sh
4/14 = -$107
Pass These MLF's:
Kee 1---#5---pl
Kee 2---#5---50
Kee 10--#10--out
Kee 11--#7---82
WO 3----#2---out
WO 4----#9---out
WO 5----#9---out
WO 8----#4---pl
SA 3----#9---sh
SA 5----#8---out
SA 6----#4---out
SA 8----#6---pl
2/12 = -$108
Alternates when passing MLF:
Kee 1---#8---out
Kee 2---#7---out
Kee 10--#4---out
Kee 11--#10--out
WO 3----#5---sh
WO 4----#2---out
WO 5----#8---pl
WO 8----#5---sh
SA 3----#2---48
SA 5----#9---pl
SA 6----#1---206
SA 8----#7---60
3/12 = +$74
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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10-10-2021, 09:31 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Aner, Interesting concept. What are the criteria for the replacement picks on MLF's that are tossed? Is it some comprehensive handicapping system, or just "eyeball" capping?
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
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10-10-2021, 11:28 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Mostly the best class horse if it was close up in one of last two races.
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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10-10-2021, 12:13 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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10/10/21
Bet these MLF to win:
Kee 3---#6
Kee 7---#7
Kee 8---#7
Kee 9---#4
Kee 10--#12
WO 1---#6
WO 5---#7
WO 9---#6
WO 10--#2
SA 2---#6
SA 5---#4
SA 8---#3
SA 9---#4
Pass These MLF's:
Kee 1---#7
Kee 2---#7
Kee 5---#1
Kee 6---#12
WO 2----#10
WO 4----#9
WO 6----#5
WO 7----#1
WO 8----#8
WO 11---#2
SA 1----#8
SA 3----#5
SA 4----#5
SA 6----#5
SA 7----#2
Alternates when passing MLF:
Kee 1---#2
Kee 2---#1
Kee 5---#3
Kee 6---#8
WO 2----#3
WO 4----#5
WO 6----#10
WO 7----#9
WO 11---#8
SA 1----#7
SA 3----#2
SA 4----#2
SA 6----#12
SA 7----#9
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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10-10-2021, 11:59 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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10/10/21
Bet these MLF to win:
Kee 3---#6---out
Kee 7---#7---out
Kee 8---#7---38
Kee 9---#4---24
Kee 10--#12--78
WO 1---#6---28
WO 5---#7---47
WO 9---#6---pl
WO 10--#2--out
SA 2---#6---out
SA 5---#4---pl
SA 8---#3---out
SA 9---#4---out
5/13 = -$43
Pass These MLF's:
Kee 1---#7---sh
Kee 2---#7---sh
Kee 5---#1---sh
Kee 6---#12--124
WO 2----#10--sh
WO 4----#9---out
WO 6----#5---out
WO 7----#1---out
WO 8----#8---pl
WO 11---#2---out
SA 1----#8---out
SA 3----#5---pl
SA 4----#5---sh
SA 6----#5---out
SA 7----#2 ---sh
1/15 = -$176
Alternates when passing MLF:
Kee 1---#2---out
Kee 2---#1---pl
Kee 5---#3---out
Kee 6---#8---out
WO 2----#3---pl
WO 4----#5---303
WO 6----#10--pl
WO 7----#9---sh
WO 11---#8---out
SA 1----#7---out
SA 3----#2---out
SA 4----#2---pl
SA 6----#12--sh
SA 7----#9---out
1/15 = +$3
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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10-11-2021, 12:29 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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WEEKLY SUMMARY
MFL which were bet:
# of races = 48
# of wins = 16
% hits = 33%
$ bet = $960
$ back = $719
$ lost =-$241
% loss = -25%
MFL not bet:
# of races = 62
# of wins = 13
% hits = 21%
$ bet = $1240
$ back = $1160
$ lost =-$80
% loss = -6%
Alternates:
# of races = 61
# of wins = 9
% hits = 15%
$ bet = $1220
$ back = $1196
$ lost =-$24
% loss = -2%
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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10-14-2021, 01:12 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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10/14/21
Bet these morning line favorites to win
Kee 6---#2
Kee 7---#7
Kee 8---#6
Kee 9---#1
WO 4----#10
Lrl 3---#5
Lrl 4---#4
Lrl 5---#10
Do not bet these MLF
Kee 2----#5
Kee 3----#6
Kee 4----#7
Kee 5----#3
Kee 10---#5
WO 2----#10
WO 3----#7
WO 5----#3
WO 6----#10
WO 7----#5
WO 8----#11
Lrl 2----#4
Lrl 6----#3
Lrl 7----#7
Lrl 8----#4
Lrl 9----#6
Alternates:
Kee 2----#6
Kee 3----#4
Kee 4----#8
Kee 5----#7
Kee 10---#4
WO 2----#3
WO 3----#5
WO 5----#11
WO 6----#8
WO 7----#6
WO 8----#1
Lrl 2----#3
Lrl 6----#11
Lrl 7----#9
Lrl 8----#6
Lrl 9----#7
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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10-14-2021, 06:16 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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10/14/21
Bet these morning line favorites to win
Kee 6---#2---pl
Kee 7---#7---out
Kee 8---#6---38
Kee 9---#1---out
WO 4----#10--50
Lrl 3---#5----36
Lrl 4---#4----sh
Lrl 5---#10---sh
3/8 = -$36
Do not bet these MLF
Kee 2----#5---40
Kee 3----#6---sh
Kee 4----#7---pl
Kee 5----#3---36
Kee 10---#5---sh
WO 2----#10---out
WO 3----#7---out
WO 5----#3---out
WO 6----#10--sh
WO 7----#5---out
WO 8----#11--out
Lrl 2----#4---out
Lrl 6----#3---out
Lrl 7----#7---out
Lrl 8----#4---32
Lrl 9----#6---44
4/16 = -$168
Alternates:
Kee 2----#6---sh
Kee 3----#4---out
Kee 4----#8---sh
Kee 5----#7---pl
Kee 10---#4---out
WO 2----#3---80
WO 3----#5---37
WO 5----#11--out
WO 6----#8---out
WO 7----#6---sh
WO 8----#1---sh
Lrl 2----#3---out
Lrl 6----#11--sh
Lrl 7----#9---56
Lrl 8----#6---out
Lrl 9----#7---out
3/16 = -$147
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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