Shared Belief or Constitution?

[KirisClown]

Constitution's only chance would be at Gulfstream and only if Castellano can drift wherever he wants, whenever he wants.

[biggestal99]

Constitition is a gp hoss. Sb is a callie. Rather go with bayern, cc, or toasty in the classic at kenneland.

Allan

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

Constitition is a gp hoss. Sb is a callie. Rather go with bayern, cc, or toasty in the classic at kenneland.

Allan

I thought it's too early to pick a Derby horse, and here we have someone picking their BC Classic horses.

[clocker7]

I'm surprised that anybody thinks that either SB or CC were at their peak in the San Antonio.

[bks]

raybo wrote:

and Bayern wins over half the time against all 3 of them in the same races, because he controls the pace.
__________________

He might, but if SB is just a length off of him entering the turn, it won't matter. SB has never lost ground in the stretch to any horse (he's never gained less than 1.5 lengths after the second call, in fact).

[raybo]

Originally Posted by bks

He might, but if SB is just a length off of him entering the turn, it won't matter. SB has never lost ground in the stretch to any horse (he's never gained less than 1.5 lengths after the second call, in fact).

Since that has never been the case, how can you say that he wouldn't lose to Bayern? If Bayern gets an easy lead he prevails, because he finishes well also. If SB is within a length of Bayern then that would mean that he ran the same pace as Bayern, and that would probably mean that SB would be more tired late than when he lays off the pace more. Bayern can run a very fast pace and still finish well, I have not seen any evidence that SB can do the same. In order to stay within a length of Bayern early, he would have to be able to do that.

[RXB]

Bayern's a nice horse but he was running on front-favouring tracks for the Haskell, the PA Derby (on a jogging pace) and the BC Classic. It didn't go so well for him when he set a solid pace on a more fair surface in the Travers, although perhaps he also just was not on his game that day.

I haven't seen anything from their overall results or their results against common opponents to make me think that Bayern is better than Shared Belief.

[classhandicapper]

Bayern is very good and has upside, but even his biggest supporters would probably concede he had a few favorable trips last year.

I'm hoping they all move forward by the same amount as 4yos (which I don't think will happen). If they don't, then people are going to conclude things about their 3yo years that are not true.

[raybo]

Favorable trips, when you are a front runner, and you have the speed and finishing capabilities, and the heart to dig in late that Bayern has, happen more often due to those characteristics.

I just wish that Bayern had been able to run in this race. He may not get another opportunity to settle things between himself, SB, and CC this year, if CC goes overseas. The only people that will, maybe, admit that Bayern is better than SB (if they meet again this year and Bayern beats him) would be those that are not CC fanatics. Those people think CC is the second coming of Secretariat or something, and nothing will ever change their minds about who is the best.

How do you beat a horse that gets the best jump from the gate, has more early speed than anyone else in the field, and can still finish strong after setting fast fractions? A horse like that will never have traffic problems and he is going to determine and control the pace and run the shortest distance if he chooses to run on the rail, and he's going to dig in down the stretch with heart. That's a whole lot to beat.

And yes, a horse like that can still have a bad day occasionally, and lose a race or two.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Bayern is very good and has upside, but even his biggest supporters would probably concede he had a few favorable trips last year.

I'm hoping they all move forward by the same amount as 4yos (which I don't think will happen). If they don't, then people are going to conclude things about their 3yo years that are not true.

I disagree with your assertion and you have made the mistake of many who falsely make this claim. Yes, horses do get favorable “trips,” but more often than not they make their trips because of their running style.

Bayern, although is not in the same class as the great Dr. Fager of yesteryear he brings back Dr. Fager’s “catch me if you can running style.”

Also Bayern is a more energy efficient runner than California Chrome as witnessed by their respective energy usage in the 2014 BC Classic.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Cratos

I disagree with your assertion and you have made the mistake of many who falsely make this claim. Yes, horses do get favorable “trips,” but more often than not they make their trips because of their running style.

Making you own trip is getting good position and a good pace setup because you have tractable speed.

Getting lucky is drawing into a race with no other speed on a day when the rail is golden (Haskell) or running on a track where the rail is golden even though it typically dead (like PARX) or getting loose because the only other speed horse got mugged at the start (BC Classic).

He's a very good horse with upside, but he had a few significant advantages over his major competitors because of developments and conditions that had little to do with him.

To make the point from the other direction, I thought the rail was deeper and the track more tiring than average Travers day. He was also challenged hard by Tonalist early. That day he didn't make out so well. But he was kind of unfortunate to have to try to get 10F with everything going against him.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Making you own trip is getting good position and a good pace setup because you have tractable speed.

Getting lucky is drawing into a race with no other speed on a day when the rail is golden (Haskell) or running on a track where the rail is golden even though it typically dead (like PARX) or getting loose because the only other speed horse got mugged at the start (BC Classic).

He's a very good horse with upside, but he had a few significant advantages over his major competitors because of developments and conditions that had little to do with him.

To make the point from the other direction, I thought the rail was deeper and the track more tiring than average Travers day. He was also challenged hard by Tonalist early. That day he didn't make out so well. But he was kind of unfortunate to have to try to get 10F with everything going against him.

Please understand that a confirmed frontrunner (which Bayern is) will typically have the worst of it with respect to aerodynamic drag and Bayern to be more energy efficient on the front end is quite a feat.

Incidentally, the so-called "dead rail" is not close to the impact of air resistance with respect to the use of a horse's energy.

Matter of fact it can be shown that "surface resistance" (dead rail) is the least impactful of the 4 major external retardants to a racehorse speed effort.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Cratos

Please understand that a confirmed frontrunner (which Bayern is) will typically have the worst of it with respect to aerodynamic drag and Bayern to be more energy efficient on the front end is quite a feat.

Incidentally, the so-called "dead rail" is not close to the impact of air resistance with respect to the use of a horse's energy.

Matter of fact it can be shown that "surface resistance" (dead rail) is the least impactful of the 4 major external retardants to a racehorse speed effort.

There are degrees of bad rail, from one that may barely offset the advantage of saving ground to one that would get Secretariat beat against a vastly inferior horse.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

There are degrees of bad rail, from one that may barely offset the advantage of saving ground to one that would get Secretariat beat against a vastly inferior horse.

If one is as dominant early as is Bayern, one has the option to run on the rail, or off the rail, and still run the shortest "advantageous" distance available. So, a dead rail is not a problem for those horses, unless the jockey makes a bad decision and runs on the rail when he shouldn't.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by raybo

If one is as dominant early as is Bayern, one has the option to run on the rail, or off the rail, and still run the shortest "advantageous" distance available. So, a dead rail is not a problem for those horses, unless the jockey makes a bad decision and runs on the rail when he shouldn't.

I agree, but how many times have you bet a horse and your rider took it straight to a suspect rail? Bayern wound up inside on Travers day even though I thought that wasn't the best place to be. Unless it's a really strong bias and everyone knows to take their horses well out on the track (like a typical day at PARX), good speed horses wind up there all the time.