Spreadsheet Tool for Exacta players.

[Ray2000]

Attached is the final write of ExactaWatch. It is in Excel Version 2003 so no extension name change is needed.
It can be used as is. It will open in compatibility mode for newer versions of Excel.

Repeat..USER should ONLY CHANGE Track/RaceNo and the values in the YELLOW cells


1. Corrected errors generated by field sizes smaller than 7

2. Removed Vernon (not available) added Philadelphia (Chester/Philly are the same track)

3. Added a cell showing time lapsed from 1st appearance of "0 MTP" when refreshing

4. Handles Crowd favorite #1 if there's been a change.

5. The row for Dr Z percentages is formatted to only turn green if Expectation > 115% and Tote Odds <10
..In theory, a Ziemba 100 means no place pool inefficiency, 100+ gives positive expectation on place bets.
Searching this Forum for "Dr Z" will turn up numerous discussions on this system.
The complete Dr Z system incorporates Kelly wager sizing/dutching calcs. (Not included in this sheet)


BTW... The sheet has the data for Harrahs R5 today where a 1/5 shot #1 gets beat.
Crowd Exacta 2-1 shows up White . Robot didn't use the deuce.


Here is the Robots oddsline for some possible Ex box bets today, Friday 10th
You can copy copy columns 3 thru 8 / paste in NotePad / recopy/paste to spreadsheet

GOOD LUCK ALL

MAY	R1	4	3	2	0.80	3.07	7.79	Moses Hanover-3/1
MAY	R3	6	7	3	1.41	1.70	8.78	Joey Lee Macdavid-3/1
MAY	R6	9	6	5	0.85	3.56	5.75	Little More Ram-3/1
MAY	R7	5	2	6	1.90	2.10	2.34	Guts N Glory-7/2
MAY	R9	1	4	3	1.40	2.71	5.31	Uniqueaway-3/1
MEA	R1	2	3	5	2.14	2.31	5.20	Hall Of Memories-2/1
MEA	R2	7	3	5	2.17	2.53	3.87	Komma Ka Z-6/1
MEA	R3	6	2	4	1.11	3.13	5.25	Ak'S Livin Large-7/2
MEA	R13	4	2	6	0.93	3.02	4.34	Itsghostlyoutside-7/2
M	R9	1	7	10	2.07	3.20	4.36	Lil Miss Bourbon-5/2
M	R11	6	4	5	1.60	2.88	7.20	Bluff-8/5
PHL	R7	1	6	3	1.94	1.98	4.34	Kamanche Sun-3/1
PHL	R8	4	2	7	1.31	4.86	5.20	Look Siera-4/1
PHL	R9	1	4	3	1.24	2.31	5.80	Precious Potato-8/1
PHL	R10	2	4	3	2.24	2.38	3.37	Higher And Higher-5/2
PHL	R11	1	5	3	1.83	2.37	4.60	Kayla'S Dream-3/1
PHL	R12	5	3	7	0.89	4.44	4.76	Sevruga-3/1
PHL	R13	1	6	5	1.42	1.71	6.17	Restless Native-9/2
PHL	R14	4	1	5	1.62	1.94	4.42	Jin Dandy-9/2
STGA	R2	7	6	3	1.11	3.11	4.65	Alias Smitty-5/2
STGA	R5	9	4	5	1.80	1.94	4.13	Silver Delivery-3/1
STGA	R11	3	1	5	1.26	2.05	3.93	Super Manning-2/1
YR	R8	6	2	1	0.84	3.64	6.93	Mm'S Lucky Boy-8/5
YR	R12	1	2	7	0.84	3.01	7.07	Bet On Luck-8/5

[mrroyboy]

Thank you Ray for all the work you put into this. It will take me a while to figure it out. I am not exactly a high tech 21st century person. I'm one of those guys who still needs a paper copy of the PP's to handicap!!

[CHeCK EyE]

Ray, if you ran a class on this stuff, I'd attend. I'll download and look through this...I gotta say I don't understand it right now and likely won't after getting a chance to look k ...but I'm fascinated

[Ray2000]

Thx guys

Keep in mind the purpose of this sheet for watching the Exacta Board is to eliminate some bets rather than finding them. Cutting your cost (number) of tickets will of course, reduce your Return (strike rate) as well but hopefully your Return On Investment will go up and you can raise your base percent of capital.

I put in rows for the usual tote info, alternate win odds and the Dr Z place watch (which many believe is just hokum anyway) but the way I use this spreadsheet is to crop the Excel window down so just the blue grid and my picks show. Set the track and race and refresh about once a minute, starting about 5 MTP. Payoffs starting and staying in the "Red" usually end up in the "Red" and just aren't worth the risk, for me anyway. It depends on which odds you assign to them, the track and maybe the phase of the moon. My main ADW account allows Queuing bets up in a preview form, so I set up the possibilities... Box abc, Box ab or ac or cb, Kybox a w/bc etc and wait and watch to about 2-3 mins beyond "0 MTP" then select best way of betting and submit.

As for setting the odds on your picks ...
1/1 - 2/1 - 4/1 is not a bad start for a Pick 1 you really like
or 1 - 3 - 3 if pick 2 and 3 are a toss up.
or 2 - 2 - 3 if you like them all about the same
or you can use current board odds, but I haven't followed that as closely.

The Overlay margin is set at 125%.
You can raise that constant (OLEF) which will set a higher bar for acceptable bets in the blue grid.


Good Luck and I hope you find it saves some $$.

Actually I get the same endorphin hit when only losing $4 instead of $12



Here are the races I'll be watching today.

HP	R6	6	7	1	0.80	5.35	5.43	Rising Artist-4/1
HP	R8	7	9	2	1.29	2.29	5.58	Peyton'S Troubador-8/1
HP	R10	7	6	8	1.41	2.01	4.39	Smarter Yet-10/1
HP	R11	6	5	8	1.92	3.69	4.45	Her Request-6/1
INDY	R4	6	3	4	1.77	2.57	3.55	I Got My Wish-6/1
INDY	R6	5	2	1	1.81	1.97	2.49	Casino Captor-4/1
INDY	R10	7	3	5	1.78	1.78	5.55	September Road-4/1
LEX	R2	5	6	7	0.93	3.89	3.92	Paul T-6/1
LEX	R4	1	4	3	1.65	3.52	3.61	Whispers Art-4/1
LEX	R9	2	4	9	1.48	2.82	4.79	Title Shot-8/1
MOH	R2	3	2	5	1.59	2.41	5.83	Rock Me Amastreos-9/2
MOH	R8	10	2	9	0.77	4.51	4.69	Misty Moonstone-7/1
M	R8	7	9	5	1.12	3.83	6.19	Mickey Hanover-8/1
M	R9	5	7	4	1.80	2.71	5.13	Rileys Luck-6/1
NFLD	R12	2	3	7	1.40	2.35	3.48	Full Of Elegance-10/1
PCD	R9	8	1	5	0.86	3.74	6.74	Mobile-15/1
RP	R2	6	3	8	0.87	4.55	5.71	Count The Cost-9/2
RP	R12	8	1	2	1.74	1.83	4.76	Whistle A Tune-8/1
SCD	R4	5	6	4	1.38	4.47	5.97	Northern Breakout-6/1
STGA	R7	8	1	3	1.21	2.65	5.03	Show Me Up-6/1
TGDN	R7	8	9	5	2.09	2.47	2.73	Jersey Boy-6/1
YR	R10	1	4	3	1.56	2.19	3.75	Or-6/1

[mrroyboy]

Very good Ray. Thank you.

[melman]

Ray not sure how the Robot will handle this trainer but what a mile in last. I give this one a BIG shot at a price. Let's say off odds of 4 or 5-1 or more.

R4 8 Main A Dieu Too 8-1 on the m/l.

[Ray2000]

Mel
Strange computer logic, bot had the 9 and 10 rated highest but rejected the race because both were breakers.

That left

BigM....R4....8-3......Main A Dieu Too-8/1 - In Kenny's Honor 5/1

as the computer picks but it didn't get on the playlist.

Ocean Downs horse makes the Big times... ...could be....GL

[Ray2000]

A request from a T-Bred player prompted this update. The Spreadsheet can be used if the field size of the runners is less 11. Also, the calculations are using generic Takeouts of 17% Win/Place/Show and 20% on Exactas, so if you want, you can update the numbers in range "AB5:AC60" on sheet "Imports" to have more accuracy. It probably won't change output that much.
To add a track not covered, PM me.

The attached .xls file also has a change to adjust for the imported data having a changed format, causing an impolite exit.

[teddy]

Anyone able to get tbred tracks to work on the program?

[Ray2000]

The spreadsheet is operating OK for some Tbred tracks on my machine, but I found a bug when selecting the option .. "Use Toteboard Odds" for Players Picks (not Players own line).

Also, some TBred Exactas at ebet are being reported to the dollar base not $2 (Aqueduct)

If I can find a method to determine Exacta base amount from Win prices and probables, I'll put up a new version. Until then this latest file should work on $2 payoffs, but you will have to ignore 1$ prices.

[teddy]

not finding a place to change settings in 2007

[teddy]

Got it working in compatibility mode. If I get a 11 percent rebate how can I change the olef to get more actual overlays? I lowered my olef to 115.

[Ray2000]

teddy

The spreadsheet is a bit clumsy in that it's displaying possible overlays for 2 different scenarios. The green columns are showing Harville probs vs tote probs for the top 3 crowd picks. The Blue columns are using any 3 player picks and either the current tote odds or the player's own (manually entered) oddsline for those 3 picks.

Harville's original method was altered and later called Discounted Harville, to allow for the 'Silky Sullivan' effect,
(The horse will win or beat nobody, meaning, small chance to Place)
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ad.php?t=35264

People argue over how much discount should be applied so I put this in as an adjustment but it only applies to the green columns, the top 3 crowd choices. (BTW, a discount of 1.0 is the original Harville, .78 seems to be the accepted discount)

For the blue columns, the players picks, I used the original Harville formula and then as an after thought before posting, put in the OLEF (Overlay Exacta Factor) which is simply a multiplier for the $2 Acceptable Minimum Prices on Players picks. Lowering the number in .1 increments like 1.15...1.0...0.9...0.8 will show more prices "in the black" but doubtful overlays.

The latest version (posted in reply #25) was saved with Aqueduct race 3 numbers and that has the $1 base problem. Use only on tracks giving $2 probables until I correct that problem or set OLEF to .5 ?

[teddy]

Can we double the exacta number and compare to the h olay number to decide. Or do we need to c hange the olef factor first.

You cant be till they are loading at least, I saw quite a few go from great overlays to no overlay after the start. Even on heavy favorites.

[Ray2000]

Doubling the payoff would be best, that's why I'm trying out a "Work-Around" solution where the program will look at the average exacta payoffs compared to the winpool-based Harvilles on the lowest 6 exactas and if way too low will convert to 2$ payoffs. Need to test it out for awhile this PM.

I made this sheet from the one I use to get away from Log-In requirements. Some missing tracks and no base price info is the trade off.