Another Net Pool Pricing Thread

[Horseplayersbet.com]

Anyone, feel free to take a stab to explain the show payoffs from yesterday's 9th at Fort Erie. I realize that there is a slight differential between Canadian dollars and US dollars (around 4% yesterday), and Canadian hosts pay down to the dime not twenty cents like most jurisdictions.

Here is the data:

1 Fourth Top 9 $1,508 $418 $188
2 Cole's Got Soul 7 $1,732 $652 $308
3 Choreography 5 $2,231 $1,405 $550
4 Sea Pleasure 15 $905 $459 $185
5 Kinshasa's Paradis 7/5 $6,200 $1,757 $514
6 Tothemoonandback 5/2 $3,850 $1,331 $784
7 Ghostly Concerto 9 $1,406 $520 $322
8 Karrmonio SCR
9 Sugar N Tabacco 25 $523 $170 $104
Pool Totals $18,359 $6,715 $2,957

1 5 Kinshasa's Paradis $4.90 $3.30 $3.40
2 3 Choreography $3.70 $3.30
3 4 Sea Pleasure $6.70

I think this is the old way to do it without net pool pricing:
2957 * .83 = 2454/3=818 for each horse

#5 818-514= 304 257 tickets $1.18 in profit, which means a $3.18 (3.10) payoff

#3 818-550=268 275 ticket $.97 in profit, which means a $2.97 (2.90) payoff

#4 818-185=633 92.5 tickets $6.84 in profit which means a $8.84 (8.80) payoff

[InTheRiver68]

You have to subtract out the gross winning wagers from the net pool.

So:

2957 * .83 = 2454 net pool

2454 - 1249 in gross winning wagers = 1205 profit

1205 / 3 = 402 in profit per horse.

#5 (514 + 402) / 514 = 1.782 payoff per $1, or $3.56 per $2, so $3.50 price.
#3 (550 + 402) / 550 = 1.731 payoff per $1, or $3.46 per $2, so $3.40 price.
#4 (185 + 402) / 185 = 3.173 payoff per $1, or $6.35 per $2, so $6.30 price.

Net pool pricing makes the spread between the low and high prices a little bit larger. Was there something specific you wanted explained about the net pool pricing prices?

- InTheRiver68

[Horseplayersbet.com]

Originally Posted by InTheRiver68

You have to subtract out the gross winning wagers from the net pool.

So:

2957 * .83 = 2454 net pool

2454 - 1249 in gross winning wagers = 1205 profit

1205 / 3 = 402 in profit per horse.

#5 (514 + 402) / 514 = 1.782 payoff per $1, or $3.56 per $2, so $3.50 price.
#3 (550 + 402) / 550 = 1.731 payoff per $1, or $3.46 per $2, so $3.40 price.
#4 (185 + 402) / 185 = 3.173 payoff per $1, or $6.35 per $2, so $6.30 price.

Net pool pricing makes the spread between the low and high prices a little bit larger. Was there something specific you wanted explained about the net pool pricing prices?

- InTheRiver68

I knew I did it wrong. Never was a show bettor. Since your prices matched the actual prices, I have no further questions

[Robert Goren]

So what happens one horse gets almost all of the money. I know in the old way they paid 2.20 or 2.10 and ate the loss. Who get how much with the new way when the following is bet $10,000 total show pool
Winning Horse A $9,500 bet on
2nd place Horse B $100 bet on
3rd place Horse C $ 50 bet on

[InTheRiver68]

Okey-dokey. Old, easy way first.

Five-horse race, show wagers as follows:
- 9,500
- 100
- 50
- 150
- 200

Total show wagers: $10,000. 17% takeout.

10,000 * 0.83 = 8,300 net pool

8,300 - 9,650 gross wagers = -1,350 "profit"

-1,350 / 3 = -450 "profit" per horse

: (9,500 - 450) / 9,500 = $0.953 per $1 wagered, or $1.91 per $2. But the track minimum is $2.10, so $2.10 is the price. To pay out $2.10 on $9,500 worth of wagers, all of the satellite facilites that took the bets have to add enough cash to get from $9,050 (gross wagers "plus profit") to $9,975 (gross wagers plus 5% bettor profit), and that's where negative break comes in. Total negative break = 9,975 - 9,050 = $925

: (100 - 450) / 100 = -$3.50 per $1 wagered, or -$7.00 per $2. But the track minimum is $2.10, so $2.10 is the price. To pay out $2.10 on $100 worth of wagers, all of the satellite facilites that took the bets have to add enough cash to get from -$350 (gross wagers "plus profit") to $105(gross wagers plus 5% bettor profit), and that's where negative break comes in. Total negative break = 105 - (-350) = $455

: (50 - 450) / 50 = -$8.00 per $1 wagered, or -$16.00 per $2. But the track minimum is $2.10, so $2.10 is the price. To pay out $2.10 on $50 worth of wagers, all of the satellite facilites that took the bets have to add enough cash to get from -$400 (gross wagers "plus profit") to $52.50 (gross wagers plus 5% bettor profit), and that's where negative break comes in. Total negative break = 52.50 - (-400) = $452.50

Math check: Wagers - Commission - Break = Total paid out
10,000 - 1,700 - (-1,832.50) = 10,132.50
Total paid out = 9,975 + 105 + 52.50 = 10,132.50

Yay.

Next up, the "new" net pool pricing way.

- InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

Five-horse race, show wagers as follows:
- 9,500
- 100
- 50
- 150
- 200

Total show wagers: $10,000. 17% takeout.

10,000 * 0.83 = 8,300 net pool

(9,500 + 100 + 50) * 0.83 = 7,885 + 83 + 41.50 = 8,009.50 net wagers on winning horses

8,300 - 8,009.5 = 290.5 profit (look! actual profit!)

290.5 / 3 = 96.8333 profit per horse.

: (7,885 + 96.8333) / 7,885 = $1.012 per NET $1 wagered. Mutliply by 0.83 to convert back to gross: $1.012 * 0.83 = $0.840. Now multiply by 2 to get the $2 unbroken price: $0.840 * 2 = $1.680. But the track minimum is $2.10, so $2.10 is the price. To pay out $2.10 on $9,500 worth of wagers, all of the satellite facilites that took the bets have to add enough cash to get from $7,981.83 (net wagers "plus profit") to $9,975 (gross wagers plus 5% bettor profit), and that's where negative break comes in. Total negative break = 7,981.833333 - 9,975 = - $1993.16

: (83 + 96.83) / 83 = $2.167 per NET $1 wagered. Mutliply by 0.83 to convert back to gross: $2.167 * 0.83 = $1.798. Now multiply by 2 to get the $2 unbroken price: $1.798 * 2 = $3.597. Broken, the $2 price is $3.40. Breakage is 100 * (3.597 - 3.40) / 2 = $9.83

: (41.5 + 96.83) / 41.5 = $3.333 per NET $1 wagered. Mutliply by 0.83 to convert back to gross: $3.333 * 0.83 = $2.767. Now multiply by 2 to get the $2 unbroken price: $2.767* 2 = $5.533. Broken, the $2 price is $5.40. Breakage is 50 * (5.533 - 5.40) / 2 = $3.33

Math check: Wagers - Commission - Break = Total paid out
10,000 - 1,700 - (-1993.16 + 9.83 + 3.33) = 10,280
Total paid out = 9,975 + 170 + 135 = 10,280

Yay.

Note that the amount of negative break in the net pool pricing model ($1,980) is more than the amount of negative break in the standard pricing model ($1,832.50). This means that the tracks and simulcast outlets are actually paying the customers more money out of their pockets, giving them better prices!

- InTheRiver68

[proximity]

Originally Posted by Horseplayersbet.com

Anyone, feel free to take a stab to explain the show payoffs from yesterday's 9th at Fort Erie.

next time a customer calls with a show betting question, tell him that PROFESSIONAL horse handicapping experts get $100+ an hour for these calls!!

[vikingrob]

Originally Posted by Horseplayersbet.com

Anyone, feel free to take a stab to explain the show payoffs from yesterday's 9th at Fort Erie. I realize that there is a slight differential between Canadian dollars and US dollars (around 4% yesterday), and Canadian hosts pay down to the dime not twenty cents like most jurisdictions.

Here is the data:

1 Fourth Top 9 $1,508 $418 $188
2 Cole's Got Soul 7 $1,732 $652 $308
3 Choreography 5 $2,231 $1,405 $550
4 Sea Pleasure 15 $905 $459 $185
5 Kinshasa's Paradis 7/5 $6,200 $1,757 $514
6 Tothemoonandback 5/2 $3,850 $1,331 $784
7 Ghostly Concerto 9 $1,406 $520 $322
8 Karrmonio SCR
9 Sugar N Tabacco 25 $523 $170 $104
Pool Totals $18,359 $6,715 $2,957

1 5 Kinshasa's Paradis $4.90 $3.30 $3.40
2 3 Choreography $3.70 $3.30
3 4 Sea Pleasure $6.70

I think this is the old way to do it without net pool pricing:
2957 * .83 = 2454/3=818 for each horse

#5 818-514= 304 257 tickets $1.18 in profit, which means a $3.18 (3.10) payoff

#3 818-550=268 275 ticket $.97 in profit, which means a $2.97 (2.90) payoff

#4 818-185=633 92.5 tickets $6.84 in profit which means a $8.84 (8.80) payoff

A quick and dirty way I do this is to figure the unbroken payoff using the gross-pool-pricing method and a zero takeout, then apply takeout to the results, and then apply breakage.

Doing it with zero takeout and no breakage comes up with (for $2 wagers):
5.921 4.020 4.213
4.527 4.068
8.148

Multiply these by 0.83 (to account for takeout) and you get:
4.914 3.337 3.497
3.757 3.376
6.763

Hope this helps.

[InTheRiver68]

I use a spreadsheet. I input the takeout rate, each show pool, and then the order of finish, and it calcs it out for me right quick.

- InTheRiver68