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Old 09-28-2018, 03:50 PM   #241
bobphilo
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The fast first call is PART of a "pattern". And, by running contrary to this part...most of the horses in the race are running a DIFFERENT "pattern".
Wrong again. As the Belmont race illustrates, most horses have a herd mentality and tend to play follow the leader and run a similar pace pattern to the leader in most races.
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Old 09-28-2018, 04:01 PM   #242
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That would be news to cj who has been using the 2nd call pace figure to adjust the final figure for pace, and it was working fairly well, until the recent discovery that using pace patterns using TFUS pace figures for all the calls can predict a more accurate adjustment to the final speed figure. This is what cj's study is going to confirm.
I'm curious to see who has been using different classifications of pace patterns to adjust final speed figures for "decades". Interesting that you haven't mentioned this much sooner in this thread on this very topic.
Think of all the time you could have prevented cj from wasting on proving something so "long known".
I have talked about pace at length on this board, for many years...and I've always advocated the all-fractions approach when it comes to truly evaluating the performance of the horses involved. The early pace ratings give too much credit to the front-runners, and the late ratings swing the advantage to the closers. IMO...you can only compare the front-runners to the closers by using the comprehensive, "all-fraction" approach. I've never thought of calling it "pace patterns"...but it was individual fraction analysis, just the same.

Look...I don't want to turn this thread into a personal confrontation between the two of us. I have a genuine interest in the topic of this thread...and the personal feelings that you and I may have for one another shouldn't interfere with the discussion here...because it involves other posters here as well. But... if this turns out to be a pissing contest of who between us is the more "accomplished" handicapper...then there are ways to find this out too. But, let's not do it in this thread.
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Old 09-28-2018, 04:04 PM   #243
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Wrong again. As the Belmont race illustrates, most horses have a herd mentality and tend to play follow the leader and run a similar pace pattern to the leader in most races.
Oh! So...when we see a strung-out field due to a quick early pace...what happens to this "herd mentality" that the horses abide by? Or are these "strung-out" fields a RARITY...according to you?
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Old 09-28-2018, 04:18 PM   #244
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In a typical race...there are front-runners...pressers...stalkers...and closers. These horses all have their favorite running styles...and they distribute their energy differently throughout the race. Does this support the "herd mentality" concept...or does it suggest that the horses have a certain "individuality" about them? Are we to believe that all these different running-style designations abide by the same running pattern that the race itself eventually adheres to?
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Old 09-28-2018, 04:36 PM   #245
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In a typical race...there are front-runners...pressers...stalkers...and closers. These horses all have their favorite running styles...and they distribute their energy differently throughout the race. Does this support the "herd mentality" concept...or does it suggest that the horses have a certain "individuality" about them? Are we to believe that all these different running-style designations abide by the same running pattern that the race itself eventually adheres to?
I think the vast majority of races unfold just like you are saying here..but are we trying to understand a little better what happened (after the fact) on the rare occasions that these freaky races occur?
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Old 09-28-2018, 04:52 PM   #246
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I think the vast majority of races unfold just like you are saying here..but are we trying to understand a little better what happened (after the fact) on the rare occasions that these freaky races occur?
That's not what I see here. What I see here is the assertion that "almost all" of the horses in the race somehow adhere to the same race-pattern as the one dictated by the totality of the race itself. And, to me...this just isn't so.
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Old 09-28-2018, 05:00 PM   #247
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
In a typical race...there are front-runners...pressers...stalkers...and closers. These horses all have their favorite running styles...and they distribute their energy differently throughout the race. Does this support the "herd mentality" concept...or does it suggest that the horses have a certain "individuality" about them? Are we to believe that all these different running-style designations abide by the same running pattern that the race itself eventually adheres to?
One reason I bought up probabilities earlier in the thread is that even after I assign running styles and do my analysis, the horses don't always cooperate. So if I make pace projections, I want to know how often I am likely to be right about the pace, the horses I expected to get involved, and the impact on them in the race.
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Old 09-28-2018, 05:31 PM   #248
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One reason I bought up probabilities earlier in the thread is that even after I assign running styles and do my analysis, the horses don't always cooperate. So if I make pace projections, I want to know how often I am likely to be right about the pace, the horses I expected to get involved, and the impact on them in the race.
Yes...and we have talked plenty about the chaos of pre-race pace projections. After so many years of daily handicapping discussions here...very few topics have been left totally ignored. But...there is always the chance that we might be able to look at an "old" topic, with a new set of eyes.
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Old 09-28-2018, 06:01 PM   #249
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In a typical race...there are front-runners...pressers...stalkers...and closers. These horses all have their favorite running styles...and they distribute their energy differently throughout the race. Does this support the "herd mentality" concept...or does it suggest that the horses have a certain "individuality" about them? Are we to believe that all these different running-style designations abide by the same running pattern that the race itself eventually adheres to?
Yes, no one is denying that horses have preferred. Running styles (front runners, pressers, closers) which just means that they have preferred positions or distances from the lead at various stages of the race. They are fairly constant in this, meaning most horses have similar pace patterns to the leader as they have to accelerate, decelerate or maintain or re-accelerate at rates or patterns similar to the leader to maintain their preferred position or beaten lengths by running a similar pattern to the leader. The fact that horses have different running styles does not contradict the fact that most have similar pace patterns to the leader but rather confirms it.
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Old 09-28-2018, 06:10 PM   #250
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Yes, no one is denying that horses have preferred. Running styles (front runners, pressers, closers) which just means that they have preferred positions or distances from the lead at various stages of the race. They are fairly constant in this, meaning most horses have similar pace patterns to the leader as they have to accelerate, decelerate or maintain or re-accelerate at rates or patterns similar to the leader to maintain their preferred position or beaten lengths by running a similar pattern to the leader. The fact that horses have different running styles does not contradict the fact that most have similar pace patterns to the leader but rather confirms it.
But the official fractional clocking of the race isn't necessarily made by only ONE "leader". It is entirely possible for ONE horse to set the first race call fraction...ANOTHER horse to set the second call fraction...and yet ANOTHER horse to trigger the final race clocking. Which of these "leaders" is the trailing pack supposed to mimic?
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Old 09-28-2018, 06:18 PM   #251
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It's probably best to evaluate each quarter individually (or at least look for extreme quarters), but it's difficult to understand and measure how the endless combinations impact horses. It will make your head explode. The short cut trick is to look for horses within a race that had similar trips and compare how they did relative to each other and expectations. If 2 good horses made a huge move on the turn and packed it in, but a 3rd kept rallying, that 3rd horse probably did something good.
cj, has already done a good deal of the work by classifying the different racing patterns into categories. The next step is to calculate win %, and impact values the same way one does with different values of any variable. One can further determine by regression analysis how the change in one variable affects the change in another. You have to do a little study in how to do the appropriate research method to do this.

Adding extra variables (such as field size or how the race was run) increases exponentially the number of combinations of variables studied and multiples exponentially the complexity. Better to add the various combinations of variables in later studies. That's just how professional researchers do it.
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Old 09-28-2018, 06:21 PM   #252
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But the official fractional clocking of the race isn't necessarily made by only ONE "leader". It is entirely possible for ONE horse to set the first race call fraction...ANOTHER horse to set the second call fraction...and yet ANOTHER horse to trigger the final race clocking. Which of these "leaders" is the trailing pack supposed to mimic?
Excellent point.
Just watched a race at GP - two horses far out in front on the the turn. Then a pack of 4 horses, all trying to close the gap. Then a gap back to 2-3 more horses trailing.

Maybe a 3-herd mentality?

I thing jockeys are more the cause of this mimicking than the horses. A jock wants to "press" the pace until midway on the turn,m then make a run. He is not going to shoot by the leader after two furlongs.
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Old 09-28-2018, 06:48 PM   #253
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But the official fractional clocking of the race isn't necessarily made by only ONE "leader". It is entirely possible for ONE horse to set the first race call fraction...ANOTHER horse to set the second call fraction...and yet ANOTHER horse to trigger the final race clocking. Which of these "leaders" is the trailing pack supposed to mimic?
We are talking about typical situations where horses that are forwardly placed at the 1st call are also forwardly placed at the 2nd. But even in those exceptions where leaders vary significantly between calls the question of whether horses are duplicating the leader's pattern when there is no consistent leader is moot.
It is is irrelevant since a horses pace pattern can be classified and used to adjust it's final figure regardless of what other horses are doing. Whatever extent it affects your horses' figure can be seen by looking at your horse's figures.

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Old 09-28-2018, 07:27 PM   #254
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We are talking about typical situations where horses that are forwardly placed at the 1st call are also forwardly placed at the 2nd. But even in those exceptions where leaders vary significantly between calls the question of whether horses are duplicating the leader's pattern when there is no consistent leader is moot.
It is is irrelevant since a horses pace pattern can be classified and used to adjust it's final figure regardless of what other horses are doing. Whatever extent it affects your horses' figure can be seen by looking at your horse's figures.
I don't understand what you are saying here...and I won't pretend that I do. We are all entitled to our own handicapping opinions...and, since we are all betting our own money...we should do the things that make sense to us, and us alone. That way...we won't have anybody else to blame for whatever "unpleasantries" might occur as a result.
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Old 09-29-2018, 03:32 AM   #255
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In a typical race...there are front-runners...pressers...stalkers...and closers. These horses all have their favorite running styles...and they distribute their energy differently throughout the race. Does this support the "herd mentality" concept...or does it suggest that the horses have a certain "individuality" about them? Are we to believe that all these different running-style designations abide by the same running pattern that the race itself eventually adheres to?

without taking sides this is a furphy.
running styles in the main are dictated by the rider or trainer.


if you had the data and could check it, you would find that no matter how fast or slow the race pace was.....
a horse will generally be about the same metric behind the leader at various race points.


ie: if it's 10m away at the 600m mark in a hot pace it will generally be about the same behind in a slow pace.


it's not usually horses that decide pace, it's riders and trainers.
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