Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 08-18-2018, 01:22 AM   #1
The Artful Dodger
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 8
How Best to Determine Size of Trifecta Bet

Does anyone know of a rule-of-thumb for determining how to best size a trifecta bet based on pool size? Any books or articles discussing this subject? I would like to bet as much as a $50 trifecta (per combination) but I'm not sure how to best gauge whether $5, $10 or $20 would be more appropriate and under which circumstances (with respect to the pool size).


Has anybody already done the math?
The Artful Dodger is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-18-2018, 01:29 PM   #2
AltonKelsey
Veteran
 
AltonKelsey's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
Simple


It would depend on what the trifecta play consisted of


Longshots, bet less


Chalky, bet more



$50 would be a lot for something paying $1000 at smaller tracks
AltonKelsey is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-18-2018, 04:51 PM   #3
Poindexter
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,964
You have to figure out how much you are cutting your payout. If you have a $100,000 trifecta pool at a 22% take, that means they are paying out $78,000. If your $50 trifecta pays $40 for 1 that means there were 78000/40 or $1950 in winning tickets. To figure what the payoff would be if you only bet $20, take the 78000/1920(technically you should deduct the $30+the takeout from the pool size-but I am just trying to limit your work) and you get back $40.625, so in this instant you know exactly how much it cost you to hit it for $50 for $20. Plug in the numbers for the tracks you play, weigh the cost percentage wise relative to your profit margins and based off that info you can make the right decision. Obviously every trifecta pool is different but do this over 20 to 30 winning trifecta races and you will get a fairly good idea of what will work best for you and of course it will vary from track to track.
Poindexter is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-18-2018, 05:48 PM   #4
JerryBoyle
Veteran
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 845
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Artful Dodger View Post
Does anyone know of a rule-of-thumb for determining how to best size a trifecta bet based on pool size? Any books or articles discussing this subject? I would like to bet as much as a $50 trifecta (per combination) but I'm not sure how to best gauge whether $5, $10 or $20 would be more appropriate and under which circumstances (with respect to the pool size).


Has anybody already done the math?
How are you determining the combinations on which you'll wager? Are you enumerating all possible combinations or doing something like the A/B/C method? If it's the former, you can actually solve the full kelly criterion taking into account the pool size. If the latter, you may be able to do some type of kelly estimate. I'd have to think more about a good way to the estimate, but it might be a fun little exercise.

Last edited by JerryBoyle; 08-18-2018 at 05:51 PM.
JerryBoyle is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-18-2018, 06:59 PM   #5
airford1
Registered User
 
airford1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 510
The size is based on what you are willing to lose. No mystery, dont make harder than it already is.
airford1 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-18-2018, 08:20 PM   #6
The Artful Dodger
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 8
I'm betting a 3 horse box. I also pre-bet (I play every tb track in North America every day) so Kelly wouldn't work for me unless I could somehow use the morning line. Probably wouldn't be too accurate tho.
The Artful Dodger is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-18-2018, 08:30 PM   #7
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Artful Dodger View Post
Does anyone know of a rule-of-thumb for determining how to best size a trifecta bet based on pool size? Any books or articles discussing this subject? I would like to bet as much as a $50 trifecta (per combination) but I'm not sure how to best gauge whether $5, $10 or $20 would be more appropriate and under which circumstances (with respect to the pool size).


Has anybody already done the math?
$50 on a winning combination will not mess with the pool ceilings at the major tracks.
Races often have between $1,000 and $5,000 on winning combinations.

Small-circuit tracks could be an issue if your trifecta has a couple of the longest shots in big fields.

Look at the payout for a race, look at the trifecta pool for that race, take away about 25% for takeout, divide what is left after takeout by the $1 payout, and you should get an idea of how many $s were on the winning combination.

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Artful Dodger View Post
I'm betting a 3 horse box. I also pre-bet (I play every tb track in North America every day) so Kelly wouldn't work for me unless I could somehow use the morning line. Probably wouldn't be too accurate tho.
as far as like a Kelly type of thing, you probably want to simply use the minimums (50cents or $1) if you are betting a lot of races. If that works increase it by the min. increment.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.

Last edited by Robert Fischer; 08-18-2018 at 08:35 PM.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-19-2018, 01:57 AM   #8
Afleet
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Missouri
Posts: 2,190
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Artful Dodger View Post
I'm betting a 3 horse box. I also pre-bet (I play every tb track in North America every day) so Kelly wouldn't work for me unless I could somehow use the morning line. Probably wouldn't be too accurate tho.
you play every track and every race, a tri box?
Afleet is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-19-2018, 12:27 PM   #9
The Artful Dodger
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 8
Yes. Because I hit a lot of them. So I play them.


The more I play, the more I make. The more I bet, the more I make.


Hence my original question. How to best optimize my operation given the constraints of maintaining a reasonable risk/reward.


Ideally, I'd like to quantify it mathematically, like Kelly, but using pool size.
The Artful Dodger is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-19-2018, 12:35 PM   #10
therussmeister
Out-of-town Jasper
 
therussmeister's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 2,363
It is not difficult to make a spreadsheet that will calculate how various bet sizes affect payouts in various pool sizes. Then you can come up with a rule of thumb to bet X% of the estimated pool. If you are going to make a spreadsheet make sure you also add your losing bets into the calculation. (if you are boxing three horses you are buying five losing tickets.)

I have done it for myself but I am not going to tell you my conclusions because we likely have very different tolerances for how much our bet depresses the price, due to how many combinations we bet and our win percentage.
__________________
“If you want to outwit the devil, it is extremely important that you don't give him advanced notice."

~Alan Watts
therussmeister is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-19-2018, 12:53 PM   #11
The Artful Dodger
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 8
Let me clarify a bit.


I exclude turf, maidens and 2 year-olds in my play.


I play everything else.
The Artful Dodger is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-19-2018, 03:38 PM   #12
elhelmete
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,731
Quote:
Originally Posted by Afleet View Post
you play every track and every race, a tri box?
At $5 to $50 unit per combo?
elhelmete is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-19-2018, 11:00 PM   #13
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
Quote:
Originally Posted by elhelmete View Post
At $5 to $50 unit per combo?
There is a WHALE in our midst.
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-19-2018, 11:52 PM   #14
The Artful Dodger
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 8
Yes. I started with a $150 bankroll and kept my risk at 2%, so my initial bets were 50˘. It grew fast. Inside of a week I was at $50.
The Artful Dodger is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-20-2018, 12:00 AM   #15
ReplayRandall
Buckle Up
 
ReplayRandall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Artful Dodger View Post
Yes. I started with a $150 bankroll and kept my risk at 2%, so my initial bets were 50˘. It grew fast. Inside of a week I was at $50.

So, you turned $150 into $15,000 in a week, and you're asking us for advice?....
ReplayRandall is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply

Tags
trifecta




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:48 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.