2018-2019 HONG KONG

[georgetkingiv]

Originally Posted by Nitro

1-6-4-5 – Dutch Win 5% Profit Margin – Passed / $19.30 Quin & $112.00 Tri
Beauty Generation now owns the Track Record for the Mile - 1:32.64

I just dropped a large wager on him to win. I was happy to take the short price. He is a pretty amazing horse. Goodnight.

[Nitro]

R#7 – 2000M G2 (10F)T…..….. 2-4-3 W/ 6-1-- ......3:05 AM EST –

6-4-3-5 – Dutch Loss 73% Profit Margin / $35.90 Quin & $483.60 Tri
Eagle Way now owns the Track Record for the 1 & 1/4 Miles - 1:59.3

[Nitro]

R#8 - 1200M G2 (6F)T…...…… 7-2-1 W/ 4-5--- ………3:40 AM EST –

7-2-4-6 – Dutch Win 19% Profit Margin - Passed / $12.90 Quin & $61.60 Tri

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by woodbinepmi

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. November 18, 2018 21st race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 78 Degrees Partly Cloudy 10% of Rain Wind: E 10 to 15mph.

Post time: 12am ET, 9pm PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20181118_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 3 Elusive State (2-1) Won for fun to carry the streak to three in a row all the while running against a speed favouring track that night, but did beat his next rival who had ran into serious trouble (#1 in here Hang’s Decision) and now is picking up an extra 14 pounds and draws the 12 gate with the short run to the first turn, playing the run ends here.


Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 099 (Winners: 2nd & 12th, Second: 11th)
Race 9 Pick Number One (14-1)

Race 060 (Winners: 3rd & 6th, Second: 4th)
Race 10 Villa Fionn (10-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 2 Good Fit (26-1)
Race 3 Remarkable (13-1)
Race 5 Victory Boys (4-1)
Race 8 Hot King Prawn (6-5)


Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 3 Elusive State (2-1)
Race 4 Triumphant Jewel (6-1)
Race 5 Victory Boys (4-1)
Race 6 Beauty Generation (2-5)
Race 6 Pingwu Spark (24-1)
Race 7 Pakistan Star (7-2)
Race 7 Time Warp (5-1)
Race 8 Ivictory (7-2)

Horses for courses running tonight:
Race 3 Remarkable (13-1)
Race 4 Styling City (8-5)
Race 6 Pingwu Spark (24-1)
Race 7 Pakistan Star (7-2)
Race 7 Werther (7-1)
Race 7 Glorious Forever (6-5)
Race 8 Ivictory (7-2)
Race 8 Mr Stunning (4-1)
Race 8 Beat The Clock (10-1)

Distance specialists running tonight:
Race 4 Styling City (8-5)
Race 6 Beauty Generation (2-5)
Race 8 Ivictory (7-2)
Race 8 Mr Stunning (4-1)
Race 8 Beat The Clock (10-1)
Race 8 Fifty Fifty (10-1)
Race 8 Hot King Prawn (6-5)


Class specialists running tonight:
None


Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 5 Pikachu (11-1) Went off at huge odds of 63-1 and drew a nice runner in Glorious Forever who has since come back and finished second in a Grade III race. Was pinched back at the start losing a length to the field, soon recovered and settled a couple lengths off the favourite winner down the backside, made a slight run at him but never was able to head him. Finished a couple lengths in front of the third place runner General Sherman, galloped out past the wire in hand.

Race 6 Singapore Sling (5-1) Drew a tough field with the highest handicap on the track Beauty Generation in it for his first out in almost six months. He broke well and Schofield placed him in his usual running position mid-pack stalking the heavy favourite Beauty Generation who was in an early duel with the front running type Time Warp (who has since come back and won his next out). After racing two wide in the turn Chad was looking for running room but was stuck behind the duelers and now Pakistan Star who started his run, at the 300 metre mark an opening outside Pakistan Star became available and with his quick turn of foot he proceeded to chase the big horse down, he just missed him by less than ½ length at the wire. Draws the rail today with pretty much the same type of field but is losing a large weight allowance he had in that race today, he’s picking up 6 pounds while the chalk is carrying 5 less.

Race 10 Noble Steed (2-1) Settled mid-pack soon after the start while saving ground on the rail, in the stretch he tried to get thru but at the 300 metre mark was forced to be taken up while looking for running room. After that he was blocked and was taken up again with 150 metres to go, finally when room became available he closed on the leaders very well but the wire caught him first. He does eat some money, goes off as the favourite in most of his races and unfortunately doesn’t get up for it, today draws an outside post and gets the services of Moreira for the trip.


Past watch list runners running tonight:
Race 10 Comfort Life (10-1)

Key Plays:
Race 6 Singapore Sling (5-1)
Race 7 Pakistan Star (7-2)

Longshots:
Race 1 Regency Darling (13-1)
Race 5 Pikachu (11-1)

Wasn't there quite a bit of hype around Pakistan Star when s/he(?) began his/her(?) career? Am I remembering that correctly? I don't follow HK racing, but I do read some of the posts while just chillin', and when I saw that name I thought it was a blast from the past. If the same horse, how has the career worked out so far?

[Nitro]

R#9 - 1200M C2 (6F)T.…….…. 1-12-4 W/ 10-3-14 ….….4:15 AM EST –

12-3-13-1 – Dutch Win 135% Profit Margin / $50.10 Quin

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

Wasn't there quite a bit of hype around Pakistan Star when s/he(?) began his/her(?) career? Am I remembering that correctly? I don't follow HK racing, but I do read some of the posts while just chillin', and when I saw that name I thought it was a blast from the past. If the same horse, how has the career worked out so far?

Yes you're correct about Pakistan Star. Many thought it might turn out to be another big champion. Things didn't turn out as they expected. Its certainly had some good runs, but not a very consistent or dependable animal.

[ultracapper]

So difficult to predict long term success in horse racing.

[Nitro]

R#10 - 1400M C3 (7F)T......... 1-4-11 W/ 2-5-13 ….….4:50 AM EST –

11-5-13-14 – Dutch Win 115% Profit Margin / $20.80 Quin & $165.00 Tri


All in all it was another profitable card. My Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Profit margin of 45% and came from hitting 5 of 7 playable races. There were a few decent Verticals as well.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

So difficult to predict long term success in horse racing.

That's for sure!

[woodbinepmi]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Yes you're correct about Pakistan Star. Many thought it might turn out to be another big champion. Things didn't turn out as they expected. Its certainly had some good runs, but not a very consistent or dependable animal.

He's a very smart horse, too smart for his own good. He has a bad tendency to stop running on the backside when he see the gap from the first turn. He's still a fine horse, the problem is that they use a handicap system over there so he will continue to run against the same horses that he's getting beat by at the moment. It's not like they can drop him into an allowance race to get his head right. Now the good thing about Hong Kong is he's a gelding like 99% of the horses over there, so they will continue to run him until he stops running (which might happen), if he was running here in the states he would have already been retired to the breeding shed. At the moment he's won $4,309,344US.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Happy Valley. November 21, 2018, 22nd race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 64 Degress Partly Cloudy 20% of Rain Wind: N 10 to 20 mph.

Post time: 6.15am ET, 3.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20181121_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 1 The Joy Of Giving (2-1) Comes from a barn that is 2 for 80 so far this racing season, he’s still winless since arriving in Hong Kong after 18 races and even with the good draw I like to play against Class 5 runners like this.

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 114 (Winners: 6th & 10th, Second: 1st & 2nd)
Race 5 Patriot Hero (15-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
None

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 3 Waldorf (7-1)
Race 6 Gold Land (3-1)
Race 6 Magic Success (9-2)
Race 7 Multigogo (15-1)
Race 8 Beauty Loyal (3-2)

Horses for courses running tonight:
None

Distance specialists running tonight:
Race 4 Fantastic Fabio (7-1)
Race 7 Multigogo (15-1)


Class specialists running tonight:
None

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 7 Happy Dragon (7-2) In his previous go at the Valley he encountered quite a bit of trouble and still was able to finish only 3 ¾ lengths off an easy win by Good Omen. Early on in this race things started very well for him, found himself on the rail without having to use any of him up to do so, in the turn he was a little compromised when Vigor Fame was being rubbed on by Yeung without an results and at kept Whyte boxed in with nowhere to go, Douglas tried to split him and Planet Star at the 220 mark but there was no room for him to go and was forced to be taken up sharply and lost all momentum he had going for him. He was hand ridden home after the incident, he doesn’t have the ability to recover that quickly and regain his stride to make up that lost distance.


Past watch list runners running tonight:
Race 8 Beauty Loyal (3-2)

Key Plays:
Race 7 Happy Dragon (7-2)
Race 8 Beauty Loyal (3-2)


Longshots:
Race 5 Magnetism (26-1)

[heinrich]

HAPPY VALLEY

RACE 1:

No selections

RACE 2:
11.6.9.1.3

VB = 11***
LS = 9

SWINGS:
11.6.9.1.3

Lowly CLASS 5 race which normally is a dangerous betting option. The VB looks a decent choice thou and im hoping he can fly home.The LS comes from my BEST SYSTEM...I'm not so confident becoz of the drop in trip...so we only take 1 medium WB on him.

RACE 3:
7.12.5.1.9.4.10

VB = 7***
LS = 12*

SWINGS:
7.12.5.1.9.4.10

A race I'm weary of. As the main form lines of this race comes from 2 days when HV ran very slow times...in truth I still don't know how to treat those days...But if things go according to my plan both the VB and LS will FLY HOME.

RACE 4:
2.11.6.10.1.4.7

TB = 2***
VB = 11*

SWINGS:
2.11.6.10.1.4.7

THE TB will get all the favours here and has a SWC with the champion jock up. The VB will be running on strongly but will need things to go his way in order to make a serious impact here.

RACE 5:
11.6.7.8.4.5.2.3

POTD = 11*****
LS = 2

The POTD gets a better draw here and should run a smashing race...Will be very hard to beat today.The are lucky here...if this LS had a good draw...we would've been all over it ekse.Unfortunately it has a very bad draw...with luck can place.

RACE 6:
2.8.11.1.5,10.12.6

LS = 5

SWINGS:
2.8.11.1.5.10.12.6

OPEN RACE...
The LS has Small place chance. Nothing special abt him but with luck he will place.

RACE 7:
9.7.1.5.8.11

POTD = 9***
LS = 5

SWINGS:
9.7.1.5.8.11

The POTD should run a smashing race.The LS will be running on late.

RACE 8:
6.10.9.3.7.2

TB = 6***

PA:
6.9.11.1.3/7.12.5.10.9.4/2/11/2.8.11.1.5.10/9.7.1.5.8/6

BONUS PA:
6.1.11.9/7.5.12.10.9.4/2/11/2.8.11.1.5.10/9.7.1.5.8/6.10.9.3.7

[Nitro]

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting some pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value.
There will 8 races at Happy Valley ALL on the Turf: (from top to bottom) -
(3)-Class3, (3)-Class4 & (2)-Class5

Post Time Race #1 – 6:15 AM WED EST

Current Hong Kong Weather: https://www.google.com/search?q=Hong...hrome&ie=UTF-8

TVG is offering live video for all these races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who might appreciate the value of the LIVE tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url...ng=en&dv=local

I’ve already taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and using a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will shed more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause substitutions among the Top 3 picks, but these selections generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1 - 1800M C5 (9F)T….....…1-7-2 W/ 5-9-4 ….....….6:15 AM EST –

R#2 - 1000M C5 (5F)T….......3-6-1 W/ 11-2-9 …....…6:45 AM EST –

R#3 - 1200M C4 (6F)T…...…..1-9-12 W/ 10-4-5 .......7:20 AM EST -

R#4 - 1200M C4 (6F)T…….....2-4-6 W/ 10-5-11 …....7:50 AM EST –

R#5 - 1650M C3 (8.25F)T...…6-3-11 W/ 2-8-4 …......8:20 AM EST –

R#6 - 1650M C4 (8.25F)T…...6-2-8 W/ 12-5-4 …..…8:50 AM EST –

R#7 – 1650M C3 (8.25F)T…..7-1-3 W/ 6-8-4 .........9:20 AM EST –

R#8 - 1200M C3 (6F)T…..…...6-9-3 W/ 1-10-2 …..…9:55 AM EST –

[Nitro]

R#1 - 1800M C5 (9F)T…..…1-7-2 W/ 5-9-4 ….….6:15 AM EST –

1-4-5-7 – Dutch Win 55% Profit Margin / $58.30 Quin & $367.40 Tri

R#2 - 1000M C5 (5F)T…....3-6-1 W/ 11-2-9 …..…6:45 AM EST –

3-11-10-12 – Dutch Win 81% Profit Margin / $30.10 Quin

R#3 - 1200M C4 (6F)T……..1-9-12 W/ 10-4-5 .......7:20 AM EST - Changed To - 1-9-10 W/ 4-5-12 – Heavy betting on #10

10-1-6-4 – Dutch Win 83% Profit Margin / $24.80 Quin

R#4 - 1200M C4 (6F)T……...2-4-6 W/ 10-5-11 …....7:50 AM EST –

1-10-5-6 – Dutch Loss 83% Profit Margin /

R#5 - 1650M C3 (8.25F)T.…6-3-11 W/ 2-8-4 …....8:20 AM EST –

11-6-12-8 – Dutch Win 70% Profit Margin / $21.30 Quin

R#6 - 1650M C4 (8.25F)T….6-2-8 W/ 12-5-4 ……8:50 AM EST –

2-11-7-5 – Dutch Win 87% Profit Margin /

-----------------------Dutch Win Bet Race Quota Met--------------------------

R#7 – 1650M C3 (8.25F)T…..7-1-3 W/ 6-8-4 ......9:20 AM EST –

5-7-4-11 – Dutch Loss 78% Profit Margin - Passed /

R#8 - 1200M C3 (6F)T……....6-9-3 W/ 1-10-2 ……9:55 AM EST –

2-1-8-10 – Dutch Loss 49% Profit Margin - Passed / $247.20 Quin Box

It was another fun and profitable card. My Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Profit margin of 47% and came from hitting 5 of 6 playable races. There were a few decent Verticals as well especially in the last race.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong at Sha Tin. November 25, 2018 23rd race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 73 degrees Cloudy 70% of Rain Wind: NNE 5 to 10 mph.

Post time: 11.45pm ET, 8.45pm PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20181125_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 6 Noble De Love (7-2) Has been away since last March when he was lame in his front right leg, and he is only 1 for 16 at this class level and at Sha Tin.

Horses coming out of key races running today (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *699 (Winners: 2nd, 5th & 8th, Second: 3rd, 9th & 10th) Class 4
Race 2 Royal Prerogative (6-1)

Race 099 (Winners: 2nd & 12th, Second: 11th)
Race 3 Bravo Watchman (9-1)

Race 052 (Winners: 3rd & 7th, Second: 5th)
Race 4 Gold Velvet (12-1)

Race 077 (Winners: 1st & 11th, Second: 7th)
Race 6 Majestic Endeavour (23-1)

Race *796 (Winners: 2nd, 4th & 8th, Second: 6th)
Race 8 Falcon Turbo (8-1)

Race 107 (Winners: 3rd, 9th & 10th)
Race 9 Amazing Satchmo (9-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 Jumbo Luck (5-1)
Race 7 Rattan (5-1)
Race 7 Morethanlucky (12-1)
Race 9 Starship (15-1)
Race 10 Superich (3-2)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running today:
Race 1 Excel Delight (3-1)
Race 5 Big Bully (23-1)
Race 6 High Rev (7-2)
Race 7 Rattan (6-1)
Race 7 Rise High (5-2)
Race 7 Morethanlucky (12-1)
Race 10 Superich (3-2)


Horses for courses running today:
Race 3 Bravo Watchman (9-1)
Race 7 Rattan (6-1)
Race 7 What Else But You (8-1)
Race 7 Simply Brilliant (5-1)
Race 10 Superich (3-2)
Race 10 Lean Perfection (16-1)


Distance specialists running today:
Race 3 Not Listenin’tome (3-1)
Race 3 Bravo Watchman (9-1)
Race 3 Keep Moving (32-1)
Race 7 Rattan (6-1)
Race 7 Rise High (5-2)
Race 7 What Else But You (9-1)
Race 7 Morethanlucky (12-1)

Class specialists running today:
None

Last race watch list horses running today:
Race 1 Multimillion (9-5) Was bet down as the 2-1 favourite in his debut going 1000 metres at Sha Tin, took a left turn at the break and bumped Ocean Elite but soon recovered and quickly took the lead. Looked like he was going to coast home for the easy win but at the 350 metre mark he switched off his proper lead step and commenced to travel very greenly throwing his head to the side and was passed near the wire by the seasoned veteran Diamond Master, he outran the third place runner Lightning Speed by three lengths and should improve with a race in him. Gets a favourable draw for the straight 1000 metre race with the 13 post which is one post off the inside rail, will have to deal with a Size first time starter just underneath him.

Race 4 Sunny Power (9-1) In his first race of the season he was bet down as the even money favourite with Purton on for the ride. Purton settled him mid-pack while chasing the eventual winner Cheerful Boy was loose on the lead, heading into the turn Zac wasn’t allowed over by Callan on King Kanaloa and had to make the turn three wide without any cover. It looked as if he was going to get a place position mid-stretch but being away from the track for three months and racing wide took its toll and Zac eased him home in the last 150 metres.

Race 6 High Rev (7-2) First time starter for the David Hall barn and was able to secure the rights for the leading rider Zac Purton. Was played heavily at the windows after drawing the 3 post going off as the second choice at 7-2, was a tab slow from the gate and was taken straight to the rail soon afterwards, Zach settled him mid-pack in the third flight on the backstretch. When he entered the stretch he found himself an opening and quickly got thru for the run home, but lacked the final kick and was out finished in the final 100 metres only to miss by ¾ of a length to the third betting choice Smiling Pride who was coming off a 8 month layoff. He was allowed to gallop out past the winner soon after the wire.

Race 10 Easy Go Easy Win (10-1) Was bet down as the 2-1 chalk in his first race of the season for the Moore barn, was taken back after break well from the gate and when taken back became rank for Purton. He finally settled down when he headed into the turn while going three wide, looked full of run at the 350 metre mark but was all bottled up with nowhere to run, When room became available at the 200 mark he responded well for zac but his race had already been decided.

Race 10 Coby Boy (16-1) In his second race after the seasonal break where he ran a game second beaten by 1 ¼ lengths to Morethanlucky, was slightly bumped out the gate and then was forwardly placed by bug-boy Yeung but was unable to stay with the pace and soon found himself racing mid-pack. Yeung was unable to find himself any room at the rail and was three wide without cover in the turn, looked full of run entering the stretch and tried to split a couple slower runners at the 350 mark but the hole soon closed up and was found without an exit plan and was never asked to run in the stretch, the stick was never brought out.

Race 10 Superich (3-2) His first try at Class 2 after two impressive wins at the Class 3 level, and Purton thought enough of him to stay on him with the class rise. Broke well from the 2 post and settled mid-pack on the backside racing on the rail, Zac moved him off the rail entering the stretch trying to find some running room he was bumped at the 350 metre mark by Infinity Endeavour who was trying to get through underneath him, he then had to wait for a hole and when it became available he shot thru it but the winning move by Dragon General was being made at the same time. He was gaining at the wire only to run out of real estate, he galloped out well past the winner after the wire.

Past watch list runners running today:
Race 4 My Winner (5-1)
Race 7 Simply Brilliant (5-1)
Race 8 Raging Blitzkrieg (6-1)

Key Plays:
Race 2 Supreme Witness (5-1)
Race 6 High Rev (7-2)


Longshots:
Race 4 Sunny Power (9-1)
Race 5 Fun Times (9-1)
Race 9 Diamond King (15-1)