effect of takeout - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Form W-2G · 10-29-2007, 07:28 PM

How much does takeout affect the bottom line? That is, if I exclusively make win wagers at a track with 15% takeout and my ROI is 5%, would my ROI be 20% (15% + 5%) if there were no takeout? Since there would be 15% more money in the win pool, I would think the answer would be yes. For some reason however, my brain is telling me that it may not be as straightforward as it appears.

FORM W4-G
(who has second-guessed himself away from more long-priced, winning horses than he cares to admit)

Form W-2G · 10-29-2007, 08:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Form W-2G

For some reason however, my brain is telling me that it may not be as straightforward as it appears.
FORM W4-G
(who has second-guessed himself away from more long-priced, winning horses than he cares to admit)

Opps, I meant to write ... FORM W-2G

It has been a long day. Besides, it has been such a long time since I've had a "signer," I forgot what they are called.

Tom Barrister · 10-29-2007, 10:32 PM

It depends on how well you do at each track. The low-takeout tracks usually have tougher players. For example, it doesn't do much good to bet at a track with a 15% takeout if you can only get a 10% advantage over the public. Your ROI is 0.95 I don't mind paying an 18% takeout if I can get a 25% edge over the public as a whole. The ROI on that is 1.07.

Overlay · 10-30-2007, 12:00 AM

Say you're hitting 30% winners at average odds of 5-2 (2.50-1) for your 5% profit. If the 15% take were removed, your average winner would pay 2.94-1, and your rate of profit on your 30% winners would increase to 18.2%. So, the new rate of return would be less than if you just added the percentage of the take to your original profit percentage.

badcompany · 10-30-2007, 02:49 AM

Seems like a percentage inc/dec problem.

You're starting w/ $100. The track takes 15$. You're turning the remaining $85 into $105.

105/85 = 1.235 or 23.5%

1st time lasix · 10-30-2007, 11:41 AM

I have seen the light myself. As an exotic player in a simulcast era....I now try to restrict all my play to takeouts under 20%. If a race I want to play somewhere has a higher vig....I try to stick to win or exacta plays which are usually lower. if a track has a take out below 20%on deeper exotics...i prefer to combine two keys in the tri....super or pick fours. I should probably also do all business with a rebate shop as well but I still prefer to go in person to my venue.

Overlay · 10-30-2007, 07:31 PM

Let me try that again:

If your average winner is at after-take odds of 5-2 with a 15% take for your original 5% profit, that means that the horse has 24-2/7% of the pre-take pool bet on it. (100%-15% = 85%. Dividing 85% into a 5/2 ratio yields 60-5/7% to 24-2/7%.) Adding the take back in would result in a ratio of 75-5/7% to 24-2/7%, which translates to odds of 3.11-1, or a payoff of $8.22 on each of the 30% of winning bets. After 100 wagers, you would have bet $200 and gotten back (30 x $8.22) for a return of $246.60, or an overall profit percentage of 23.3%, meaning that your profit percentage would have increased by an amount greater than the sum of the original profit percentage and the percentage of the take (which would be only 5% + 15%, or 20%).

BillW · 10-30-2007, 10:53 PM

Here is a page that should give you an idea ...

http://www.trackthieves.com/Takeout2.html

badcompany · 10-31-2007, 08:01 AM

People here seem intent on turning a circle into a circus.

Here are the breakeven points for the the most common takeouts. In other words, the percentage by which you have to beat your fellow cappers in order to break even.

Takeout Breakeven
15% 17.6%
20% 25%
25% 33.33%

advancedcapper · 10-31-2007, 10:21 AM

Take the total in the pool and take the 18% from it. Subtract your horses monies and divide into the remainder. DO it again with 0% and see the difference.

For place, take the 18% and subtract the top two finishers and divide your horses into half the remainer. For show, do the same, except take out for 3 horses and divide into 1/3 the remainder.

ac.

Foolish Pleasure · 11-10-2007, 10:54 AM

Quote:

if I can get a 25% edge over the public,if I can get a 25% edge over the public as a whole. The ROI on that is 1.07.

ROTFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If my dick grows to three feet!

anyone holding 7% has absolutely zero idea how to bet and is not making enough to pay for a big mac and a tank of gas.

people selling products like to use ROI's and similar,
real people use money.

Takeout is overrated within reason,
field size, in essence the number of combos or permutations, if the inherent error on any particular favorite can overcome a 25% takeout there is a good chance it will overcome a 30% takeout,
lower the takeout obviously the sharper the content of the pool on top of it all.

Seeking out the lowest take bets and thinking that somehow is optimally solving the problem is very short sighted.

Tom Barrister · 11-10-2007, 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Foolish Pleasure

ROTFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If my dick grows to three feet!

anyone holding 7% has absolutely zero idea how to bet and is not making enough to pay for a big mac and a tank of gas.

people selling products like to use ROI's and similar,
real people use money.

Takeout is overrated within reason,
field size, in essence the number of combos or permutations, if the inherent error on any particular favorite can overcome a 25% takeout there is a good chance it will overcome a 30% takeout,
lower the takeout obviously the sharper the content of the pool on top of it all.

Seeking out the lowest take bets and thinking that somehow is optimally solving the problem is very short sighted.

And exactly what does that rambling sermon of misinformation have to do with what I said?

skate · 11-10-2007, 06:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by badcompany

Seems like a percentage inc/dec problem.

You're starting w/ $100. The track takes 15$. You're turning the remaining $85 into $105.

105/85 = 1.235 or 23.5%

nice show.

and if w-2 would stop giving away the long shots, hed not have to worry.

advancedcapper · 11-12-2007, 08:58 AM

Are you referring to me, and if so, what sermon?

ac

vegasone · 11-12-2007, 09:10 AM

Always interesting how someone could ridicule a 7% return. Of course when you bet $2 it doesn't amount to much. Some people in Vegas would kill for that edge, they are making do with much less and making a ton of money. It all depends on how much money you are able to churn.