Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkH45
I'm in desperate need of a money managment system. I pick horses on a consistent basis that are ITM but I need to get this money thing under control. Any help would be great. THANKS what kind of systems do you full time handicappers use??
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Here's my suggestion for beginning bettors - use fixed percentage betting until you are good enough to confidently use Kelly wagering
(
http://www.dmtc.com/handicapping/tools/wt_kelly.php ).
Some obvious questions arise:
Q: When am I good enough to use Kelly wagering?
A: When you are a consistent, long-term profittable player.
Q: What percentages should I use?
A: IMO, you should use the following percentage formula, which I derived from the Poisson distribution where I set the probability of tapping out at
1,000,000::1 (assuming my probability of winning is accurrate).
Bet percentage = [-(1/6) * log {1-P(w)}] * 100%
where P(w) is what odds you give yourself of winning
For real even money selections bet no more than 5% of your betting bankroll. You will have to determine the percentages from your records as Dutchboy recommended above.
P(w) Bet percentage
0.500 5%
0.250 2%
0.125 1%
Just one man's opinion from a break-even bettor.
Stu