Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 10-20-2021, 08:19 AM   #1
Andy Asaro
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,789
Breeders' Cup Short priced (3-1 or less) Vulnerable or Throw outs?

I need to see post positions and the PP's before I toss but off the top of my head I'd say Knicks Go is vulnerable because of fast pace and the distance and most importantly he's never had a race over the Del Mar Surface that I can remember.

Del Mar's main track isn't as extreme as the one at Santa Anita but it's still different than what the horses coming in have run over. And works or jogs over the track can be deceiving IMO. You can't really tell if they like it till they are set down in a real race.

Good luck
Andy Asaro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-20-2021, 11:02 AM   #2
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
I don't like Corniche at all. Not sure he'll be favored, but he'll be 3-1 or less I think.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-20-2021, 11:15 AM   #3
LemonSoupKid
Registered User
 
LemonSoupKid's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 930
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy Asaro View Post
I need to see post positions and the PP's before I toss but off the top of my head I'd say Knicks Go is vulnerable because of fast pace and the distance and most importantly he's never had a race over the Del Mar Surface that I can remember.

Del Mar's main track isn't as extreme as the one at Santa Anita but it's still different than what the horses coming in have run over. And works or jogs over the track can be deceiving IMO. You can't really tell if they like it till they are set down in a real race.

Good luck
I agree, the Del Mar surface is a real wild card. I do believe it was even more questionable in 2017, and likely faster now, but still I recall being at the BC at that time and not only was it typical Breeders Cup in terms of randomness and upsets, it was beyond what I even expected. What's funny is that I think what supports this is that I did well on the Early Pick 5, as the form was much easier to predict given more local runners. Prat was just coming out to be the top jockey at that time, incidentally, too.
LemonSoupKid is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-20-2021, 12:23 PM   #4
outofthebox
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 647
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
I don't like Corniche at all. Not sure he'll be favored, but he'll be 3-1 or less I think.
I agree. But i need him to take the starch out of Jack Christopher. I'm tossing both of them....
outofthebox is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-20-2021, 12:27 PM   #5
the little guy
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,324
Quote:
Originally Posted by outofthebox View Post
I agree. But i need him to take the starch out of Jack Christopher. I'm tossing both of them....
Maybe you should watch the Champagne again....or for the first time.
the little guy is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-20-2021, 01:11 PM   #6
outofthebox
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 647
Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy View Post
Maybe you should watch the Champagne again....or for the first time.
I did watch it. Probably to many times. I'm just not crazy about his last 1/4 in 27 and weak gallop out. He can be a superstar, but i also thought that of Complexity.
outofthebox is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-20-2021, 01:15 PM   #7
the little guy
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,324
Quote:
Originally Posted by outofthebox View Post
I did watch it. Probably to many times. I'm just not crazy about his last 1/4 in 27 and weak gallop out. He can be a superstar, but i also thought that of Complexity.
So you watched the Champagne ("to many times" ) but think he's a need the lead horse? I'm confused.
the little guy is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-20-2021, 01:33 PM   #8
outofthebox
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 647
Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy View Post
So you watched the Champagne ("to many times" ) but think he's a need the lead horse? I'm confused.
Obviously he is not a need the lead. My feeling is the two favorites are going to hook up by the far turn, and like i said in my reply to CJ, i hope it takes the starch out of both of them. That's the stand i'm taking. Enjoy your work on FS!.
outofthebox is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-20-2021, 01:46 PM   #9
the little guy
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,324
Quote:
Originally Posted by outofthebox View Post
Obviously he is not a need the lead. My feeling is the two favorites are going to hook up by the far turn, and like i said in my reply to CJ, i hope it takes the starch out of both of them. That's the stand i'm taking. Enjoy your work on FS!.
Thanks. Good luck. Waiting for the race to be drawn but, at this point, hard to take a big stand against the first two in the Champagne. We'll see.
the little guy is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-20-2021, 07:10 PM   #10
MJC922
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,506
Pappacap not too bad really, got tag-teamed by Bob to be parked three on both turns, the usual. I'm not all over him by any means but he did run an honest race.
__________________
North American Class Rankings
MJC922 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-20-2021, 09:38 PM   #11
taxicab
Registered User
 
taxicab's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 3,601
Knicks Go: Distance/Strong Field/Thinking the DMR surface gives him problems.
Jackie's Warrior: With the exception of Life Is Good,don't like the horses he's been beating.
Gamine: Always wonder about her legs......beat her you get paid nicely.
taxicab is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-20-2021, 11:49 PM   #12
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
Given the baffert cant juice in training, or the day of the races, arnt all his horses tosses? I dont like any of them to begin with.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-21-2021, 06:13 AM   #13
Andy Asaro
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,789
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
Given the baffert cant juice in training, or the day of the races, arnt all his horses tosses? I dont like any of them to begin with.
The extra scrutiny won't do anything to stop his horses. That's why he was happy to submit to it.
Andy Asaro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-21-2021, 11:26 AM   #14
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
Given the baffert cant juice in training, or the day of the races, arnt all his horses tosses? I dont like any of them to begin with.
It came too late, the hard training is already done.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-21-2021, 02:09 PM   #15
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
It came too late, the hard training is already done.
thanks, did not realize the timeframe for when juicing matters.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:22 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.