Knicks Go

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by mountainman

I think we agree on this. Wayne. But it comes down to word semantics. ie your definition of "pace" and "flow." I suspect your statement covers unexpected strategies and early positions.

This is the way I view it.

The pace is the fractions.

The flow is whether the lead horses collapse worse than their form indicates they should or outrun what their form indicates they should.

Those two things will usually be in sync, but sometimes the fractions are clearly very fast and all the front horses keep running and sometimes the fractions are clearly slow but the front runners fall apart worse than expected.

I can guess some of why that is.

Sometimes the track is biased and changes the normal relationships. It can even change during the course of the day depending how they maintain it.

Sometimes it's the amount of pressure the horses are under as opposed to just the fractions.

Sometimes one of the speeds is superior and dominates the pace in fast fractions. All the chasers will fall apart, but he'll go on to run his usual figure because he's relaxed up front despite going fast.

Sometimes a race is loaded with speed, but most of them are strangled back. The fractions wind up being slower than expected, but the horses that were strangled back kind of fall apart.

Sometimes the fractions are wrong or wind aided.

Sometimes a quick 1/8th mile move could take a toll and not really show up clearly in the overall fractions.

I'm sure there are things I've never thought of.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by BIG RED

One suggestion, he has never ran at the distance. 1 1/4, and in a field of proven distance winners. That's a long race

We see this in the Derby every year. If you are the best horse at 1 1/8 miles going into the Derby, you are the horse to beat. The final furlong rarely is the reason a horse like that gets beat.

I think the reason the crowd was luke warm on Knicks Go was they automatically assumed he and Medina Spirit would duel thru brutal fractions. I don't know if there's a rider who's better equipped to sit second than JRV.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Valuist

We see this in the Derby every year. If you are the best horse at 1 1/8 miles going into the Derby, you are the horse to beat. The final furlong rarely is the reason a horse like that gets beat.

I think the reason the crowd was luke warm on Knicks Go was they automatically assumed he and Medina Spirit would duel thru brutal fractions. I don't know if there's a rider who's better equipped to sit second than JRV.

This was mildly different though.

In the Derby, no one is tested at 10F yet. They are all on equal footing as to their chances of getting 10F other than your own analysis of their potential based on pedigree, what you've seen on the track at 9F, and maybe the trainer's aptitude.

In this race, we already knew a few of the contenders were going to handle 10F and a couple might even appreciate the extra ground. That wasn't the case with Knicks Go.

How much that should have counted for may have been overrated in the odds, but it had to be a risk for a speed horse that had shown a tendency to back up when pressed.

[Tom]

And Derby horses are not fully developed yet and probably have only run once at 9 furlongs.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Valuist

We see this in the Derby every year. If you are the best horse at 1 1/8 miles going into the Derby, you are the horse to beat. The final furlong rarely is the reason a horse like that gets beat.

FWIW, it used to be we saw more speedy 3 year olds who had won preps with their early speed go into the Derby and get done in by the distance. The point system has the effect of keeping out a lot of the hopeless sprinters who used to go to the Derby and set super-fast paces.

[Maximillion]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

FWIW, it used to be we saw more speedy 3 year olds who had won preps with their early speed go into the Derby and get done in by the distance. The point system has the effect of keeping out a lot of the hopeless sprinters who used to go to the Derby and set super-fast paces.

You mentioned Black Tie Affair earlier and think it was pretty much the same scenario...at least for me.There was some concern about the horses he was beating up on...maybe not so much the distance.

It often looks obvious after the race....I stiffed Knicks Go for my own reasons.
Just move on to the next race.

[rastajenk]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

FWIW, it used to be we saw more speedy 3 year olds who had won preps with their early speed go into the Derby and get done in by the distance. The point system has the effect of keeping out a lot of the hopeless sprinters who used to go to the Derby and set super-fast paces.

I see this come up regularly, and I've never bought in to it. Who are some of the hopeless sprinters of recent vintage that might have sneaked in on the money won but were kept out by the points system? What's wrong with some 'cheap speed,' at least by G1 standards, to set the table early once in a while?

The money-won metric worked just fine, as far as I can tell. It was also more democratic, or confederated, or something like that in that the various tracks can do what they want with their purses for the preps, as opposed to The Derby dictating which races are worth this or that. If Hawthorne wanted to make their derby a million-dollar event, why would you deny that winner a spot?

[thaskalos]

Knicks Go was obviously the best horse in the BCC field...and anyone who couldn't see that shouldn't be handicapping thoroughbreds. That's why I am thinking of switching to the harness game.

[cj]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Knicks Go was obviously the best horse in the BCC field...and anyone who couldn't see that shouldn't be handicapping thoroughbreds. That's why I am thinking of switching to the harness game.

This is like going from three card monty to the shell game.

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Knicks Go was obviously the best horse in the BCC field...and anyone who couldn't see that shouldn't be handicapping thoroughbreds. That's why I am thinking of switching to the harness game.

From the frying pan straight into the fire!

[Tom]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

From the frying pan straight into the fire!

I can just see it now.....

YouTube

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Tom

I can just see it now.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L90uDzDbdV0

When Joe Pesci's character jumped on the track and started beating up the rider, I had this brief thought that EMD4ME might do that to a jockey in NY some day. No one pays more attention to riders and their mistakes than him.

[Tom]

Knicks Go not so hot....I see that American Revolution got a BRIS speed fig of 118 - KG never got close to that!

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by metro

For a horse known to dislike being behind and inside other horses Saez sure had no problem with dropping EQ on the rail, behind and inside his rivals. Rail being deader as the day went on to boot.

For the record, Thorograph made both Friday and Saturday dead rails.

One of the problems I'm running into is that there are no head on replays for some races. It's tough to tell which path certain horses were running in without head on replays.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

For the record, Thorograph made both Friday and Saturday dead rails.

One of the problems I'm running into is that there are no head on replays for some races. It's tough to tell which path certain horses were running in without head on replays.

There should be a head-on for every race here:

https://www.calracing.com/live-video/replays/