Del Mar meet is set to open July 18, 2020

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't understand the incremental risk of opening a track without fans UNLESS horses, trainers, and backstretch workers are shipping in.

The trainers and backstretch workers taking care of the horses at SA are already there and the number of people required beyond that to run the races is apparently a small number that can be equipped with masks and generally socially distance.

The question becomes how many horses and horse related workers will be shipping in and can they be tested in a quick enough turnaround.

But if you can run a limited schedule with the horses already on the grounds there's virtually no incremental risk above what's already occurring just taking care of the horses and training them.

What am I missing?

Even with horses, trainers, and backstretch workers shipping in it shouldn't be a problem. Test them to see if they have a current infection and test them for antibodies. Any decisions made will be political and not based on safety or science.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't understand the incremental risk of opening a track without fans UNLESS horses, trainers, and backstretch workers are shipping in.

The trainers and backstretch workers taking care of the horses at SA are already there and the number of people required beyond that to run the races is apparently a small number that can be equipped with masks and generally socially distance.

The question becomes how many horses and horse related workers will be shipping in and can they be tested in a quick enough turnaround.

But if you can run a limited schedule with the horses already on the grounds there's virtually no incremental risk above what's already occurring just taking care of the horses and training them.

What am I missing?

There are a couple of arguments that have been made publicly. (I will reiterate, I have no idea why they are slow-walking Santa Anita's application. Any number of things might be going on internally to the health department, including policy choices.)

1. Even with all the protocols (and the protocols are great IMO!), there's still some risk of transmission at the track. There are still people coming into the ecosystem from the outside, who may transmit the virus. There are still situations where people have to come within 6 feet of each other as part of the operation of the track. The horses themselves provide surfaces where the virus can be transmitted.

Personally, I don't buy this argument at all. But it's out there.

2. There's a modeling issue. And this argument has a LOT to do with why X business that you might want to be open is closed.

Basically once the government gets into the exception business, the granting of exceptions breeds public and interested party demand for more exceptions. "You allowed those guys to do something, why can't we?"

And public health officials who are trying to stop the spread of the virus don't want to deal with a lot of special interest pleading on exceptions.

There was an incident in Vermont and Michigan that might clue you in somewhat on the thinking here. In both those states, Walmarts were prohibited from selling general merchandise, only groceries and drugs. Why would the government do that? After all, it isn't as though once the Walmart is open, there's any additional danger from selling other merch.

But the reason they imposed that restriction is because other competitors of Walmart who don't sell groceries were declared "non-essential" and required to be closed. So they didn't want to hear a bunch of special pleading from those stores about what Walmart was doing.

That's the mentality with this.

[cj]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Even with horses, trainers, and backstretch workers shipping in it shouldn't be a problem. Test them to see if they have a current infection and test them for antibodies. Any decisions made will be political and not based on safety or science.

Bingo!

[Andy Asaro]

They made the announcement to force the public officials to point out which protocols are insufficient. They won't be able to. It's a smart move and it help set up a legal argument should they shut them down. Was on with Mike Willman on Thoroughbred LA last Saturday hour two to discuss this very thing.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

......

2. There's a modeling issue. And this argument has a LOT to do with why X business that you might want to be open is closed.

Basically once the government gets into the exception business, the granting of exceptions breeds public and interested party demand for more exceptions. "You allowed those guys to do something, why can't we?"......

Absolutely agree, however the government is already in the exception business.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

They won't be able to. It's a smart move and it help set up a legal argument should they shut them down.

Let's get out of fantasyland here:

1. The power of the County health department to shut down businesses in a pandemic is plenary. It doesn't matter how Santa Anita "sets up" its arguments. The County has a rational basis for its actions, and that's the ballgame. There's not going to be any litigation, and if there is litigation, Santa Anita will very quickly lose.

2. Even if Santa Anita somehow were able to establish a right to run races, people are forgetting a kind of important matter: Santa Anita holds a government charter to accept wagers. THAT exists solely based on the permission of the government.

That puts Santa Anita in an even weaker legal position than even some average business challenging a shutdown order. One of the conditions on Santa Anita's right to accept wagers is compliance with all local health and safety regulations. If they aren't in compliance and open anyway, they can't accept any bets.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Even with horses, trainers, and backstretch workers shipping in it shouldn't be a problem. Test them to see if they have a current infection and test them for antibodies. Any decisions made will be political and not based on safety or science.

I mentioned testing the shippers, but turnaround time might be an issue.

Let's a few people want to ship from NY to run a stake and show up with 3 horses and handful of people. How do you test them and know if you can let them on track fast enough for that to be viable?

You can test them and wait a few days for the results, but what do you do with the horses and people while you are waiting a few days?

I've heard there are some quick turnaround tests out there. So maybe that's an option, but they'd have to have that technology.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I mentioned testing the shippers, but turnaround time might be an issue.

Let's a few people want to ship from NY to run a stake and show up with 3 horses and handful of people. How do you test them and know if you can let them on track fast enough for that to be viable?

You can test them and wait a few days for the results, but what do you do with the horses and people while you are waiting a few days?

I've heard there are some quick turnaround tests out there. So maybe that's an option, but they'd have to have that technology.

There is supposed to be a test from Abbot that takes only 5 minutes.

[Andy Asaro]

Santa Anita schedules 29 stakes, including four Grade 1's

https://www.drf.com/news/santa-anita...-four-grade-1s


Santa Anita releases condition book; what about the Derby?

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne..._the_Derby_123

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Dr. Fauci anounced some good news on the treatment front this morning.

If you want to be an optimist about getting back to some semblance of normal, this is where you want to focus your attention.

Has Fauci been right about anything? We need second opinions

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Afleet

Has Fauci been right about anything? We need second opinions

This is pretty bad. He's pretty much "right" about everything. He's the voice of reason and this country is damn lucky to have him.

[HorsemenHeist]

Originally Posted by the little guy

This is pretty bad. He's pretty much "right" about everything. He's the voice of reason and this country is damn lucky to have him.

He said that Tinder hookups are acceptable if you are willing to take the risk but is unwilling to sign off on baseball.... What science justifies this?

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by the little guy

This is pretty bad. He's pretty much "right" about everything. He's the voice of reason and this country is damn lucky to have him.

You couldn't be more wrong...bad handicapping on your part, Fauci's a bad little pony.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

You couldn't be more wrong...bad handicapping on your part, Fauci's a bad little pony.

Being told you are wrong by you is the highest compliment anyone can be paid.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Being told you are wrong by you is the highest compliment anyone can be paid.

Crushing reply Sport, you really haven't done your homework at all....

Get back to me when you get some new material....What you got ain't good enough.