Bayesian Probability

[maddog42]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem

Sir Harold Jeffreys put Bayes' algorithm and Laplace's formulation on an axiomatic basis. Jeffreys wrote that Bayes' theorem "is to the theory of probability what Pythagoras's theorem is to geometry".[1]

[Robert Goren]

We have been down the Bayes road before here and I doubt many of us want to revisit it.

[SchagFactorToWin]

That link's footnotes led me to download 'The Theory That Would Not Die'. Looks like a good read.

[maddog42]

From the Wikipedia article above:"By modern standards, we should refer to the Bayes–Price rule. Price discovered Bayes' work, recognized its importance, corrected it, contributed to the article, and found a use for it. The modern convention of employing Bayes' name alone is unfair but so entrenched that anything else makes little sense."

[maddog42]

I have been obsessed about finding hidden value in various exotic pools and have found that most of my miniscule profits have come from higher odds horses in the place position. My Win bets have shown a very slight loss, but on the bottom end of exactas a small profit. I am trying to use bayesian probability to analyze this. My sample is only 600 races, so this may be an illusion.

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by maddog42

I have been obsessed about finding hidden value in various exotic pools and have found that most of my miniscule profits have come from higher odds horses in the place position. My Win bets have shown a very slight loss, but on the bottom end of exactas a small profit. I am trying to use bayesian probability to analyze this. My sample is only 600 races, so this may be an illusion.

Horse racing is off topic in the Off Topic Forum.

[maddog42]

Originally Posted by Clocker

Horse racing is off topic in the Off Topic Forum.

Funny. Maybe the the "thought police" will let me sully the pure math of this forum with a little horse racing applications.

[maddog42]

What got me started on this Bayesian probability kick was a video called "What are the chances". A notorious tight wad, I picked this up at the thrift store for 1.99. It is a lecture by professor Michael Starbird at the University of Texas and has a chapter on Bayesian Probability and even more interesting is the chapter called Conundrums of Conditional Probability.