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04-29-2021, 08:21 PM
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#46
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Missouri
Posts: 2,190
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I will be betting slightly less than Mac on the race 
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04-30-2021, 05:10 PM
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#48
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,800
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04-30-2021, 10:38 PM
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#49
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 1,955
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
I know its difficult for many Stateside players to rationalize the betting comparisons between the size of the local betting pools and those in Hong Kong. It’s like night and day!
A typical handicap race in HK on average generates any where between 5 to 6 Million US$ in just the Win pool.
Now multiply that by a 9 or 10 race card.
A typical Graded stakes race could generate up to 8 Million US$. In just the Win pool.
So that KY Derby Win bet of 2 to 4 Million $ is a big bet no matter how you look at it even from a HK betting perspective.
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A seven figure wager is a big bet, even for me. But the point I'm trying to make is that Mack's bet is on the chalk, in what is probably the biggest win pool of the year in North America, so he's not going to cut the odds in half or anything.
It looks like he did make the bet, and Essential Quality dropped from 5-1 to 3-5. Hot Rod Charlie was actually the favorite early on, and I won't be surprised if the odds continue to drift up on Essential Quality - he may still be the chalk, but I think he goes off closer to 3-1, as he's "live" in the Oaks-Derby double pool, and won't need to be bet down any more.
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04-30-2021, 11:11 PM
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#50
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Sometimes it's not what you imply
Quote:
Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate
A seven figure wager is a big bet, even for me. What are you trying to say, "even for me"?
But the point I'm trying to make is that Mack's bet is on the chalk, in what is probably the biggest win pool of the year in North America, so he's not going to cut the odds in half or anything.
It looks like he did make the bet, and Essential Quality dropped from 5-1 to 3-5. For now, it looks like it's more than cut in half.
Hot Rod Charlie was actually the favorite early on, and I won't be surprised if the odds continue to drift up on Essential Quality - he may still be the chalkHe's 100% the chalk, not "may still be".
but I think he goes off closer to 3-1,Only if he cancels at least half his bet
as he's "live" in the Oaks-Derby double pool, and won't need to be bet down any more.
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I've commented on some of your good posts in the past....Now we have the flipside.
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05-01-2021, 07:52 AM
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#51
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,800
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https://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-de...riday-wagering
Excerpt:
Churchill Downs publicity announced Friday that McIngvale had made the first of several wagers that could total $3 million or $4 million Friday afternoon, placing a $500,000 bet that knocked Essential Quality’s odds down to 3-5. His price rebounded somewhat thereafter but Essential Quality at 7:15 p.m. Eastern was the 1-1 favorite in a prospective field reduced to 19 with the Friday scratch of King Fury.
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05-01-2021, 09:27 AM
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#52
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 310
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So basically Mac is making the market on Essential Quality with his bets
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05-01-2021, 06:09 PM
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#53
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,610
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One thing that few are considering is that Mattress Mack may be impacting the pools, but the resultant prices are also impacting the betting strategies of computer models and sharp handicappers that use odds lines. So they are offsetting and correcting his impact to some degree.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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05-01-2021, 06:45 PM
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#54
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,549
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
One thing that few are considering is that Mattress Mack may be impacting the pools, but the resultant prices are also impacting the betting strategies of computer models and sharp handicappers that use odds lines. So they are offsetting and correcting his impact to some degree.
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If these handicappers are really "sharp"...then they will make allowances for the betting antics of a billionaire businessman who is hedging against an advertising promotion.
__________________
Live to play another day.
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05-01-2021, 07:04 PM
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#55
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Don't bet millions of dollars on horses who hang in the stretch.
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05-01-2021, 07:11 PM
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#56
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,549
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
Don't bet millions of dollars on horses who hang in the stretch.
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Or even hundreds...
__________________
Live to play another day.
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05-01-2021, 07:42 PM
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#57
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,610
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
If these handicappers are really "sharp"...then they will make allowances for the betting antics of a billionaire businessman who is hedging against an advertising promotion.
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I think we are agreeing, but I'm not sure.
Imagine some computer guys have a certain horse at 5-1 on their fair odds line.
Imagine he would have been 9/2 without Mack's betting.
They would not bet.
Now imagine Mack's betting caused him to be above 5-1.
Now they would bet. Their bets would then tend to pull the price back down towards that 9/2 it might have if Mack never got involved.
You can't view Mack's betting in a vacuum without considering that OTHER people are changing their betting because of Mack. Basically it's not as simple as subtracting Mack's bet from the pool and then recalculating the odds. Of course, we don't have enough information to know who did what differently because of his betting.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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05-01-2021, 07:48 PM
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#58
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,610
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
Don't bet millions of dollars on horses who hang in the stretch.
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Maybe I misunderstood.
I have no idea how he made out, but wasn't he just hedging a bunch of potentially free mattresses he would have had to give away if Essential Quality won?
He probably generated a lot of extra sales of mattresses from people hoping for a freebie, lost the bets, gets paid for the mattresses, and got loads of publicity out of it all.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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05-01-2021, 07:55 PM
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#59
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,549
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Maybe I misunderstood.
I have no idea how he made out, but wasn't he just hedging a bunch of potentially free mattresses he would have had to give away if Essential Quality won?
He probably generated a lot of extra sales of mattresses from people hoping for a freebie, lost the bets, gets paid for the mattresses, and got loads of publicity out of it all.
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Yes. But if he was as good a handicapper as me, he would have said that he is betting Essential Quality while leaving this horse totally off his tickets. Then...he would have gotten the free publicity...he would have gotten paid for the extra mattressess...AND he would have saved a couple of million dollars, after losing his smaller bet on the  . 
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Live to play another day.
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05-01-2021, 08:09 PM
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#60
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 269
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Had $60 on the 7 and a $4 exacta wheel on top.
The one time i didnt play win/place.
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