Del Mar meet is set to open July 18, 2020

[Saratoga_Mike]

It sounds like the Montana lab was practically drowning (in the air) the rhesus macaque monkeys in virus exposure, and they all stayed healthy (small sample size). I believe those type monkeys are used b/c the similarity in their gene makeup and immune systems relative to humans. Give the TV media a day or two, and this study will get a lot of air time, I suspect.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by AndyC

That would be great but it would be the first coronavirus vaccine ever. The last time there was a big push for a vaccine was during the AIDS crisis. Still waiting. The good news is that the smartest scientists in the world are all trying to make this happen sooner than later.

My uninformed guess would be that better treatments are available before a vaccine and then the risk of catching it and having severe complications or dying will be reduced enough that attitudes will change.

[hopbet]

ALCON:
IMO, if both tracks open in July they will be WITHOUT the attendance of the general public. The ability of a racetrack to maintain "social distancing" is NOT feasible , the normal course of business from standing in line to wager, concession stands even using the rest room are FACTORS that will cause local,state and other health officials to recommend racing without the general public. The governor of New York CUOMO has stated "New York will open in phases , with at LEAST 14 days between each phase". The widely recognized incubation period of coronavirus is 14 days. Saratoga opening in July (since we all are offering our opinion/guess) , based on CUOMO plan , my guess/opinion is NO. I do not have an guess/opinion on Del Mar, however even if I'm WRONG on Saratoga both (Saratoga and Del Mar) will run without the general public

HOPBET

[Tom]

Originally Posted by AndyC

What number do you consider a "massive movement of people"?

Anyone who agrees with him!

[Ocala Mike]

Unconfirmed report - Santa Anita will be opening for racing soon, as their petition was approved. Can anyone confirm?

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

Unconfirmed report - Santa Anita will be opening for racing soon, as their petition was approved. Can anyone confirm?

Not sure if Santa Anita's particular petition was approved (or even directly considered) at today's board meeting. What was approved was a plan for economic recovery in LA county. It appears that some people are jumping to the conclusion that Santa Anita will be one of the first places in line to reopen. Not sure that's the case, but positive news nevertheless.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

My uninformed guess would be that better treatments are available before a vaccine and then the risk of catching it and having severe complications or dying will be reduced enough that attitudes will change.

This is right. If something comes a long that significantly reduces the death rate, social distancing will become unnecessary. Until then, it is.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

This is right. If something comes a long that significantly reduces the death rate, social distancing will become unnecessary. Until then, it is.

There were some good results announced from Gilead on their trials for a drug that I believe treats late stage very serious cases.

I listened to an interview with Mike Milken yesterday (the junk bond guy). He's doing a ton of work tracking all the investment going into treatments and vaccines and how much promise they are all showing. He was very optimistic that some good treatments are on the horizon and not nearly as far off as people think.

[Ocala Mike]

class, did he say anything about vaccine maker, Novavax?

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

There were some good results announced from Gilead on their trials for a drug that I believe treats late stage very serious cases.

I listened to an interview with Mike Milken yesterday (the junk bond guy). He's doing a ton of work tracking all the investment going into treatments and vaccines and how much promise they are all showing. He was very optimistic that some good treatments are on the horizon and not nearly as far off as people think.

Dr. Fauci anounced some good news on the treatment front this morning.

If you want to be an optimist about getting back to some semblance of normal, this is where you want to focus your attention.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

class, did he say anything about vaccine maker, Novavax?

He didn’t in the address this morning, where he focused on Remdesivir. The danger of buying into Remdesivir too much is that the trial did not include a placebo and the main effect was shortening the lengthiest hospital stays. So, it was looked at as effective in treating the patients with the most dire condition.

If there was some amount of confidence that a treatment plan could keep people from dying while stronger antibody tests are developed and implemented that continue to show a lower mortality rate then we’ll be OK for things in the fall IMO.

On this topic, it’s a HUGE long shot that Dmr or Sar runs with fans present.

[TMQ]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

Unconfirmed report - Santa Anita will be opening for racing soon, as their petition was approved. Can anyone confirm?

The condition book comes out the 30th for Santa Anita. Track plans on opening for live racing on the 15th, without fans of course.

[Andy Asaro]

Santa Anita making plans for May 15, still needs county approval

https://www.drf.com/news/santa-anita...ounty-approval

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

Santa Anita making plans for May 15, still needs county approval

https://www.drf.com/news/santa-anita...ounty-approval

The fact that county officials are taking so long is probably an indicator that they don't buy the industry's basic argument, i.e., that there's some special reason having to do with the industry's employment of thousands of people and its care for horses, that justifies reopening before other businesses can reopen.

Instead, they are not treating this with any urgency. They are basically judging racing as no different than any other business arguing its status as an "essential" business.

The worst case scenario is even worse than that, by the way- that basically the officials don't really buy horse racing's social distancing arguments and won't reopen the track until they start reopening restaurants and other businesses.

As of now, the county officials are saying very little publicly. Obviously, we don't know what the racetrack officials are really hearing behind closed doors. But at the very least, this has been slow-walked. Santa Anita had its protocols written a couple of weeks ago. We would have seen a reopening announcement by now from the county if it was just a matter of getting the protocol right.

(One other thing. The horse racing media is paying too much attention to the Board of Supervisors, and how they are being lobbied and protested. Yes, ultimately, they could overrule the county health officials. In theory. In practice, Kathryn Barger wants to remain an elected official, and that means she's risk averse. If she overrules her health officials and guesses wrong, it's a career ender. If she sticks with their advice, whatever it is, she can say she did her job and relied on the best advice.

Santa Anita has to convince the County health department. Insiders may not like that because it probably has a more skeptical attitude about racing than the Board of Supes does, but at the end of the day there isn't going to be an opening of the track over the objection of the health department.)

[classhandicapper]

Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't understand the incremental risk of opening a track without fans UNLESS horses, trainers, and backstretch workers are shipping in.

The trainers and backstretch workers taking care of the horses at SA are already there and the number of people required beyond that to run the races is apparently a small number that can be equipped with masks and generally socially distance.

The question becomes how many horses and horse related workers will be shipping in and can they be tested in a quick enough turnaround.

But if you can run a limited schedule with the horses already on the grounds there's virtually no incremental risk above what's already occurring just taking care of the horses and training them.

What am I missing?