Can Sports Betting on Track and Satellite Save Racing?

[Cangamble]

Originally Posted by andymays

I agree with you so why isn't anyone here doing it?

And what makes you think they will do it?

It takes the whole industry to do it, or at least about 5 or 6 major tracks to do it.
And I never said it would be done. The industry is far too dysfunctional to erase their mindsets and move into the future.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

The vig (house edge) on the line at a typical footbal game at Pinnacle was (what?) 10 percent? Again, that equates to 10 percent takeout, right?

Huh?

Pinnacle deals football at -104/-104. That is a hold/takeout of 1.92%.

Now add in a little line shopping (finding -6 when a game is -6.5, or going to matchbook and seeing that they have most games at -101/-101 or less) and you should be able to easily lower your takeout to 0% unless you are betting huge amounts.

[Cangamble]

Originally Posted by Irish Boy

Those are some mighty big assumptions you are making.

Based on what we've seen at Betfair, I think my assumptions are on the conservative side.

[andymays]

Originally Posted by Cangamble

It takes the whole industry to do it, or at least about 5 or 6 major tracks to do it.
And I never said it would be done. The industry is far too dysfunctional to erase their mindsets and move into the future.

It seems to me that at this point in time that Sports Betting is a viable solution. A case could be made that because of the situation all the States are in makeing it happen in the next year or so isn't that much of a stretch.

On the other hand what you're suggesting is a stetch in my opinion. We can go on theory and argue till we all die or we can take what might be a half assed solution and run with it!

[rwwupl]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Allow me to suggest something completely out there.

Why should racing have to even think about resorting to gambling games other than racing to save racing?

Do gambling games other than racing have the ability to kick racing's ass when it comes to creating new customers and growing handle?

If so, why?

Hint: takeout.

Slots are immensely popular. But then aren't most slot machines in this day and age programmed to return more than 90 cents for every dollar wagered? And that equates to (what?) less than 10 percent takeout, right?

The vig (house edge) on the line at a typical footbal game at Pinnacle was (what?) 10 percent? Again, that equates to 10 percent takeout, right?

Instead of using other forms of gambling (that offer lower takeout than racing) to "save" racing...

Is it too much of a stretch to think maybe it's time for racing to stand up and COMPETE with the other forms of low takeout gambling that have been kicking racing's ass for more than a decade?

Color me blind deaf and dumb if you want. But I happen to think that racing offered at 9 to 10 percent takeout every pool everywhere every day (marketed as the best gambling game on the planet) very quickly turns things around and finds itself kicking the collective asses of every other gambling game known to man.



-jp

.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

I have nothing against sports betting,and maybe that is a possibility.

But Jeff makes a good point. Horse racing has operated at an economic disadvantage for too long concerning the competition,so that is the real problem. The people do love racing,but the gambling public has been driven away by greedy legislators(They set the rates) and poor leadership( They refuse to recognize the fans voice).

If you analyze the take out in California, it has gone from 10% to 20% over time ,and if you knew how many projects that the take out and breakage (another 1.25%) supports, you could see where a 10% across the board take could be achieved and actually provide more revenue .

The take supports several organizations, including the TOC( would it be out of line to ask the TOC members pay DUES?),the take supports A Van and Stabling Program at each track so that Horsemen who get stall space get a free ride. The State expects a healthy number over and above costs for the General Fund.The take supports various charity programs ,like retired horses,Breakage has outlived its day because we do business by computer now and on and on.

There is a lot to be examined, but the point is lower take would mean more fans and betting and we would be in a growth pattern and be equal with the competition, and only then would the true facts about "popularity" with the public be meaningful.

Horse Racing is not dead, it is being poorly managed.

[Irish Boy]

Originally Posted by Cangamble

Based on what we've seen at Betfair, I think my assumptions are on the conservative side.

I'd love to think you are right. I think what's going on there is self-selection of a very particular group, which you shouldn't use to extrapolate to the whole. I'll tell you what though... if tracks drop takeout to 10% and it more than doubles handle, I'll buy you a coke. A man can dream, right?

[Relwob Owner]

Originally Posted by Cangamble

I think you are having a hard time grasping the fact that if 1 billion is bet during a specific period at a 20% takeout, most likely 2.5 to 3 billion would be bet if takeout was 10%.

10% of 2.5 billion is greater than 20% of 1 billion for the industry.

Owners and trainers would have more money to split up.

You are saying that if takeout dipped from 20 percent to 10, the betting would double or triple? ?That seems like a huge leap in terms of assumptions.....I know that the "whales" have a huge impact but what proof would there be that they would bet that much more? Plus, I know and respect your stance on takeout but to the average fan/bettor who isnt a "pro" or a "whale", do you really think that they have that intimate of a knowledge of takeout???? I doubt it.....

[DeanT]

Originally Posted by Irish Boy

If that's true- and it might be- horse racing is dead. You can only be sheltered from competition for so long.

It is here pretty much. Live handle is cut about in half since before slots. Yep, half! We are getting killed by alternative gaming.

As for attention span (which you call action), I can't find anyone to play chess anymore. It's too slow. Baseball ditto. Too slow. Those of us that have focus and concentration, and like this kind of stuff are just a different lot.

We are a unique breed arent we?

[andymays]

Originally Posted by rwwupl

----------------------------------------------------------------------

I have nothing against sports betting,and maybe that is a possibility.

But Jeff makes a good point. Horse racing has operated at an economic disadvantage for too long concerning the competition,so that is the real problem. The people do love racing,but the gambling public has been driven away by greedy legislators(They set the rates) and poor leadership( They refuse to recognize the fans voice).

If you analyze the take out in California, it has gone from 10% to 20% over time ,and if you knew how many projects that the take out and breakage (another 1.25%) supports, you could see where a 10% across the board take could be achieved and actually provide more revenue .

The take supports several organizations, including the TOC( would it be out of line to ask the TOC members pay DUES?),the take supports A Van and Stabling Program at each track so that Horsemen who get stall space get a free ride. The State expects a healthy number over and above costs for the General Fund.The take supports various charity programs ,like retired horses,Breakage has outlived its day because we do business by computer now and on and on.

There is a lot to be examined, but the point is lower take would mean more fans and betting and we would be in a growth pattern and be equal with the competition, and only then would the true facts about "popularity" with the public be meaningful.

Horse Racing is not dead, it is being poorly managed.

Being on the backstretch at Del Mar yesterday was an eye opener. Lowering the take is not an option at this time. It may be down the road but I'm telling you many of these guys are a month away from walking away!

[cj]

Originally Posted by andymays

Being on the backstretch at Del Mar yesterday was an eye opener. Lowering the take is not an option at this time. It may be down the road but I'm telling you many of these guys are a month away from walking away!

Then so be it really. I don't know any serious bettors that concentrate on SoCal anymore outside the occasional P6. NoCal, does it even exist? They'd be better off running simulated computer races than that crap they have put on the last decade or so.

[Relwob Owner]

Originally Posted by andymays

It seems to me that at this point in time that Sports Betting is a viable solution. A case could be made that because of the situation all the States are in makeing it happen in the next year or so isn't that much of a stretch.

On the other hand what you're suggesting is a stetch in my opinion. We can go on theory and argue till we all die or we can take what might be a half assed solution and run with it!

I am not sure that it is the complete answer but I really dont seeing it hurting at all. The idea of losing race fans to sports betting seems to be the biggest concern and that just doesnt make sense to me. People betting racing already know about sports betting and they either do both or just like betting on racing more......I see both the sports and the horse bettors making bets on the other during a day and definitely see the potential for a bigger handle on each end and definitely dont see either side suffering as a result.

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by andymays

I believe that allowing Sports Betting on Track and Satellite only (not online so we can get people to the facilities) will get people to go to the Track in droves to make a sports bet.

The thing about having a Casino at a Track is that these people like a different kind of action. A machine player needs action every 5 seconds.

A Sports Bettor has action every 3 or 4 hours so Horse Racing is a natural fit. The Sports Bettor will embrace Horse Racing because it is a game of skill where he has action every half hour. I would imagine more than a few people will stay at the Track to watch their game. They will eat, drink, and maybe play a few races!

This will attract a new group of people to the Track (young people included)!

I think this makes too much sense so they will never try it!

I am sure this will work and save Racing if they give it a try.

What do you think?

Great idea but ther are so many groups opposed to this. Sports leagues, NCAA, chrurch groups.
PLus I believe it is a violation of federal law for any state to legalize sports betting.
THe only state that is an exception is Oregon. After many court fights, that State proved their system was a lottery. Or something like that.
ANyway, I think it's good idea, but at least as far as I know, it's non-starter

[Irish Boy]

Just remember that however much fun it is to propose this as a solution, you can't do it anywhere except Nevada without a change in federal law, and good luck changing that.

[andymays]

Originally Posted by thespaah

Great idea but ther are so many groups opposed to this. Sports leagues, NCAA, chrurch groups.
PLus I believe it is a violation of federal law for any state to legalize sports betting.
THe only state that is an exception is Oregon. After many court fights, that State proved their system was a lottery. Or something like that.
ANyway, I think it's good idea, but at least as far as I know, it's non-starter

I think it was a non-starter two years ago but not today. Everyone and everything is on the table if you ask. The problem is that nobody is asking.

[DeanT]

Originally Posted by Relwob Owner

You are saying that if takeout dipped from 20 percent to 10, the betting would double or triple? ?That seems like a huge leap in terms of assumptions.....I know that the "whales" have a huge impact but what proof would there be that they would bet that much more? Plus, I know and respect your stance on takeout but to the average fan/bettor who isnt a "pro" or a "whale", do you really think that they have that intimate of a knowledge of takeout???? I doubt it.....

Too bad you are not in TO. You could come and bet with a friend of mine. He bets UK races on betfair, and during the day might put 150-$200,000 thru at 5% takeout. Later we head to the track. His handle is about $20. Sometimes $40. He can not find an edge at the track betting into the teeth of 22% takes, so he has a beer, makes one or two $20 bets, chats with his friends and has something to eat.

Betting would triple or more within 5 years if we went to 10% takeouts. There is no doubt in my mind.