Trading Thread

[barn32]

I thought I'd start a trading thread where you can post trades, ideas about trades, questions about stocks, options, trades etc. Anything to do with trading.

I'll start it off. I bought 1 Apr 17th 100 Call Option as a proxy for 100 shares of AAPL. It was 23 points in the money. My cost basis this way is ~$2300 vs $12,300 for 100 shares of stock. (1/2 of that if you're on margin.)

You give up a little bit in premium, but not too much.

I think this is as decent a long term entry point as any, and I was waiting for AAPL to pull back to 123, so I'm in.

I paid $23.25 for the call.

[Ocala Mike]

OK, I'll play. I'm not currently in the market, but I used to have pretty good success SELLING calls on stock that I owned. I don't know if this is a viable trading technique with a volatile stock like AAPL, but I will make a contrarian (to you) play of a purchase of 100 shares of AAPL at the market, close of business today, and a corresponding SALE of a June 125 call, again price at close of business today.

Good luck, as this is only a "mind" bet just to have a little fun.

[barn32]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

OK, I'll play. I'm not currently in the market, but I used to have pretty good success SELLING calls on stock that I owned. I don't know if this is a viable trading technique with a volatile stock like AAPL, but I will make a contrarian (to you) play of a purchase of 100 shares of AAPL at the market, close of business today, and a corresponding SALE of a June 125 call, again price at close of business today.

Good luck, as this is only a "mind" bet just to have a little fun.

I like it.

[Tape Reader]

I’m buying ES on a new low for a quick bounce.

[barn32]

The David Sklansky Stock Tip

Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc. (OREX) ($6.93)

This is a drug company with one drug--Conclave. It's a weight loss drug. Apparently it's well known that most if not all weight loss drugs increase the risk of stroke and heart attack. This drug, Conclave, was studied against a placebo and found to reduce the risk of stroke and heart attack by a significant amount.

However, the company released the findings prematurely much to the consternation of the FDA. There are potential violations pending.

After the release the stock shot up from around $5 to around $9. It was the highest volume stock traded that day-around 19 million shares. After the FDA, and possible violations backlash, it fell back down to around $7.

David's analysis is that if the studies are true then the stock could easily quadrupple to around $28. If it isn't true, or the backlash becomes serious, then the stock could easily cut in half.

The risk reward is there, you make the call. (I'll probably buy 100 shares just on spec.)

Orexigen: What Happened And What's Next

[Tape Reader]

Originally Posted by Tape Reader

I’m buying ES on a new low for a quick bounce.

Order cancelled. Missed new low by 2 pts.

[barn32]

OREX was up around 60¢ yesterday on high relative volume.

"Trade-Ideas LLC identified Orexigen Therapeutics ( OREX) as a strong on high relative volume candidate. In addition to specific proprietary factors, Trade-Ideas identified Orexigen Therapeutics as such a stock due to the following factors:

• OREX has an average dollar-volume (as measured by average daily share volume multiplied by share price) of $149.1 million.

• OREX has traded 880,682 shares today.

• OREX is trading at 3.36 times the normal volume for the stock at this time of day.

• OREX is trading at a new high 8.02% above yesterday's close.

'Strong on High Relative Volume' stocks are worth watching because major volume moves tend to indicate underlying activity such as M&A events, material stock news, analyst upgrades, insider buying, buying from 'superinvestors,' or that hedge funds and momentum traders are piling into a stock ahead of a catalyst. Regardless of the impetus behind the price and volume action, when a stock moves with strength and volume it can indicate the start of a new trend on which early investors can capitalize. In the event of a well-timed trading opportunity, combining technical indicators with fundamental trends and a disciplined trading methodology should help you take the first steps towards investment success..."


Full Article (Jim Cramer rates it a sell so that is good news)

[barn32]

Sold my 300 shares of OREX for a $31 profit this morning. Why? The stock was slowly drifting up the past week or so and then this morning when I checked it was up 24¢...and then the next time I looked, about fifteen minutes later, it was down 25¢. Not the kind of price action I like to see on such a cheap, speculative stock.

I'm just going to observe it on the sidelines for a while. If it ends up making a big move without me so be it.

[PICSIX]

Originally Posted by barn32

Sold my 300 shares of OREX for a $31 profit this morning. Why? The stock was slowly drifting up the past week or so and then this morning when I checked it was up 24¢...and then the next time I looked, about fifteen minutes later, it was down 25¢. Not the kind of price action I like to see on such a cheap, speculative stock.

I'm just going to observe it on the sidelines for a while. If it ends up making a big move without me so be it.

Trading Rules:
1. Protect your capital.
2. Protect your capital.
3. Protect your capital.

[badcompany]

Went short OIL@10.60. It was looking like a big winner until Yellen opened her mouth. I added to the position @10 on the pullback. If it goes back to 10.5, I'll take the small loss.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by badcompany

Went short OIL@10.60. It was looking like a big winner until Yellen opened her mouth. I added to the position @10 on the pullback. If it goes back to 10.5, I'll take the small loss.

Welcome to the club of Ol' Yellen despisers......

[badcompany]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Welcome to the club of Ol' Yellen despisers......

It was like getting taken down by the Stewards at the Fed

[reckless]

This is what's wrong with the markets these past years.

The markets now trade on every stupid statement made by Yellen and by her last 3-4 predecessors. Then we now have these hucksters that go on CNBC, Fox Business and Bloomberg and comment of her remarks by belching out what they think Yellen really meant to say, for crissakes.

This isn't investing; this is worse than going to the track or a casino. Why? Because those institutions are playing with our money -- pensions, IRAs, etc.

And, in every previous generation, if there was any Quanitative Easing done by central banks as we have now, the markets would tank, not race higher. And, if there were multiple QEs world-wide as we're seeing now, some real market sage such as B. M. Baruch or John Templeton would say: this isn't working and it must be stopped now. And don't get me started by negative interest rates and flat yield curves.... signals of a depression and market crash. But no, we get record highs on a regular basis.

Everything is upside-down and inside-out. Very little makes sense to me.

[PaceAdvantage]

I thought it was very interesting that at the 2:00pm FED announcement last week, there was no initial head fake, like there usually is...it just went straight up after 2:00pm...that almost never happens...there is usually at least one head fake, and usually more than one before the market takes off in one direction after a FED meeting announcement....

Is anyone but me reading into that at all?

[reckless]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I thought it was very interesting that at the 2:00pm FED announcement last week, there was no initial head fake, like there usually is...it just went straight up after 2:00pm...that almost never happens...there is usually at least one head fake, and usually more than one before the market takes off in one direction after a FED meeting announcement....

Is anyone but me reading into that at all?

I noticed that as well, Mike... it was pretty obvious to me too and I don't have your discerning eyes and ears.

I am not a doom and gloomer by any means and actually have aligned myself in the perma bull camp for ages, but, when 'that time comes', so to speak, it will get very nasty very quickly.

But, sadly, when bankers named Goldman or Citi take a real hit, ol' Yeller, err ol' Yellen will come to the rescue. You can bet on that!