If Saratoga is hard, why play?

[Redboard]

Some one here recently posted the average win payouts for the major tracks last year, and the SPA was at the bottom. Surprising in one sense because it's supposed to be the "graveyard of favorites," but I'm not surprised because I've noticed the last few years that it's harder and harder to find value. One reason for this, IMO, is Andy. The guy used to be terrible but has gotten better in recent years that people actually listen to him, which knocks down the value.
Also, IMO the super trainers have also reduced value, as well as the general decline in value in the game due to the advancement in handicapping science(computers, speed figures, databases, etc.).

[ronsmac]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

You want to show a profit for the year, right? If you think Spa (or DMR)is Hard why would you spend one minute on their races? Since 'everyone' is playing the Spa, that shows me people think they can beat it.

95 to 99% can't beat any track before rebate but people still bet. That's a conservative number, it's probably closer to 99.9%.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Grits

How often do you attend Saratoga's meet?

I believe you have some exaggerated misconceptions--from the backyard to the clubhouse.

Hey Grits,

Please don't take my list as an insult to the Saratoga attendees. 30 years ago there were a ton of people who played birthdays, numbers, etc at many tracks. That crowd has moved on to slot parlors/lotto. However, at the spa you get something that is rare these days. A series of tourists who are not everyday horseplayers and who do have spouses/friends who do play numbers or at the very least make uneducated plays. At the spa you will see more younger people vs. Aqueduct. You will see more people drinking a lot vs. Aqueduct. These people probably dont bet as much as seasoned dedicated players but they still add some value into the pool with their random money as opposed to the hard core 3000 who are playing aqu in the winter. Yes, the back yard is filled with many awesome intelligent horseplayers. Not saying otherwise to answer your question I first went to the spa in 88 or so. Have made 25 trips up or so in the last decade. The spa is also a place where every horse owner really wants to win and many times their hopes of winning are more wishful thinking as opposed to realistic hopes as many outfits are out to seriously win today's race. Just believe there's more dead money at the spa vs. Other tracks for the aforementioned reasons.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

It's nice having money in the pools from people who are

1) Once a year players
2) Hammered from alcohol
3) People who are not familiar with the circuit
4) People who are playing birthdays, favorite numbers, etc.
5) Dreamers-Owners of horses that shipped in thinking they have a shot and bet on their horses as well. Meanwhile their horses are almost hopeless longshots.

You are absolutely right.

Money from the above players is not always wrong money. Wouldn't a big player just swoop in and capitalize on the mistakes made by your listed players? Based on the high percentage of money bet offtrack, I doubt that the listed players would affect the payoffs to a degree that it would be way out of line. Large competitive fields are the real drivers of the longer prices.

[Grits]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

Hey Grits,

Please don't take my list as an insult to the Saratoga attendees. 30 years ago there were a ton of people who played birthdays, numbers, etc at many tracks. That crowd has moved on to slot parlors/lotto. However, at the spa you get something that is rare these days. A series of tourists who are not everyday horseplayers and who do have spouses/friends who do play numbers or at the very least make uneducated plays. At the spa you will see more younger people vs. Aqueduct. You will see more people drinking a lot vs. Aqueduct. These people probably dont bet as much as seasoned dedicated players but they still add some value into the pool with their random money as opposed to the hard core 3000 who are playing aqu in the winter. Yes, the back yard is filled with many awesome intelligent horseplayers. Not saying otherwise to answer your question I first went to the spa in 88 or so. Have made 25 trips up or so in the last decade. The spa is also a place where every horse owner really wants to win and many times their hopes of winning are more wishful thinking as opposed to realistic hopes as many outfits are out to seriously win today's race. Just believe there's more dead money at the spa vs. Other tracks for the aforementioned reasons.

You've made 25 trips since 88. Ok. I've been there, daily, the month of August since 2003, with the exception of 2009 (another time that my son was sick.)

Still, we don't agree and I'm not a heavy hitter like you. I've done something else for a living--and now I don't have to do anything.

Anyway, I think the majority of the people at Saratoga, are there, and have been, year after year. I don't think there's as much drunkeness during the races as you believe--after the races, yes, quite possibly. But not during. Too, I'm not convinced a racetrack is a "tourist destination" spot, certainly, not for an entire week.

If there was as much uninformed money as you believe, the favorites and near favorites wouldn't be doing as well. With the understanding of trainers that point for this meet... too, Andy Serling may have a whole lot to do with this--along with Eric, Jason, Mike Beer and Maggie.

In all the years that the PA crowd was gathered in the festival tent, I don't recall a single member of the group being drunk, there, during the days of betting. Maybe afterwards, but I wouldn't know about all that. Drunks usually lose. These guys don't like to lose.

No, its not November and Aqueduct, but the people, the majority of them are seasoned; they can read a set of past performances. The only ones that can't? The chicks who turn out scantily clad looking for a hook up. And they're a dime a dozen, Emd. They're everywhere.

[letswastemoney]

Every racetrack is hard, but it's nicer to follow one with the best horses and trainers, rather than trying to figure out an impossible 4k claimer in a smaller circuit.

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by Grits

If there was as much uninformed money as you believe, the favorites and near favorites wouldn't be doing as well. With the understanding of trainers that point for this meet... too, Andy Serling may have a whole lot to do with this--along with Eric, Jason, Mike Beer and Maggie.

That is why I, and probably some others here, opt not to play the Spa. Especially for an ADW player, it is hard to find value there. I think that to find value, you need to know which trainers and horses do well there year after year. And you need to know the track. The Spa 5 1/2 F turf sprint is unique. And for the first half of the meet, virtually every field is made up of shippers.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Grits

In all the years that the PA crowd was gathered in the festival tent, I don't recall a single member of the group being drunk, there, during the days of betting.

cough...cough...you must have missed the first couple of years...

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Grits

You've made 25 trips since 88. Ok. I've been there, daily, the month of August since 2003, with the exception of 2009 (another time that my son was sick.)

Still, we don't agree and I'm not a heavy hitter like you. I've done something else for a living--and now I don't have to do anything.

Anyway, I think the majority of the people at Saratoga, are there, and have been, year after year. I don't think there's as much drunkeness during the races as you believe--after the races, yes, quite possibly. But not during. Too, I'm not convinced a racetrack is a "tourist destination" spot, certainly, not for an entire week.

If there was as much uninformed money as you believe, the favorites and near favorites wouldn't be doing as well. With the understanding of trainers that point for this meet... too, Andy Serling may have a whole lot to do with this--along with Eric, Jason, Mike Beer and Maggie.

In all the years that the PA crowd was gathered in the festival tent, I don't recall a single member of the group being drunk, there, during the days of betting. Maybe afterwards, but I wouldn't know about all that. Drunks usually lose. These guys don't like to lose.

No, its not November and Aqueduct, but the people, the majority of them are seasoned; they can read a set of past performances. The only ones that can't? The chicks who turn out scantily clad looking for a hook up. And they're a dime a dozen, Emd. They're everywhere.

I must say hello the next time I'm there! Won't be this year as I'm playing nurse and home attendant this year.

I haven't just made 25 trips since 88, I wasn't clear enough. I meant 25 trips (of 3-5 days) in the last decade. Anyway, YOU have me beat!

I don't know if you were kidding about the girls looking for a hook up but yes there are many young people who are to say the least rookies at this game.

I usually hang out all over both levels of the grandstand and make walks around the cavernous backyard as NYRA doesn't have a player rewards room up at the SPA. I can't help but people watch, especially when I'm at the machines waiting to punch through a thousand bucks worth of bets and the person in front of me is taking 5 minutes to pick the horse (via who has their favorite color or name) to wager $2 bucks on. I don't see much of that in December at Aqu, hence my thought. I wasn't talking about the people who are loyal to Saratoga and attend year after year and spend so much money on tourism/meals/lodging. They are the stalwarts of the meet.

My main point is that there might not be much but there is definitely some money, that in the long run is definitely losing money in the pools that differs from a pool at AQU in December. A horse might pay $16.40 as opposed to $15.80 due to the "rookie" money. That's all.

Wish you the best of luck at the SPA this year and safe travels! Hope the weather is more than good most of the meet.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Money from the above players is not always wrong money. Wouldn't a big player just swoop in and capitalize on the mistakes made by your listed players? Based on the high percentage of money bet offtrack, I doubt that the listed players would affect the payoffs to a degree that it would be way out of line. Large competitive fields are the real drivers of the longer prices.

Oh, I agree, the smart money & BIG money many times (not all the time) does take that rookie money. However, they get $6.40 instead of $6.00, which does make a huge difference when they're betting $5000 to win or $10,000 to win.

I may be totally wrong but I definately think there's at least a small dent upward made by the rookie money. As Ainsle said, an average player should lose no more than the vig. I would say it's safe to say that in the long run, people who are rookies at this game are losing more than the vig. Hence, prices being a bit better thanks to 2% or 5% of the pool being "rookie" money.

Like I said, I could be wrong. No way to prove the theory.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Clocker

That is why I, and probably some others here, opt not to play the Spa. Especially for an ADW player, it is hard to find value there. I think that to find value, you need to know which trainers and horses do well there year after year. And you need to know the track. The Spa 5 1/2 F turf sprint is unique. And for the first half of the meet, virtually every field is made up of shippers.

That's why I love formulator. I pluck out all detailed stats that are track specific. Can't bet without it.

For example: I had no idea Terri Pompay is 8/38 at the SPA the last 5 years. 6/18 on Dirt and 2/5 with First Time Starters at the SPA till I looked it up.

To me, that's a nice nugget to know...Especially since Pompay has a 2 year old FTS running in Friday's second.

[badcompany]

I go mainly for the pool at the Gidean Putnam:

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by badcompany

I go mainly for the pool at the Gidean Putnam:

Is that the show pool?

[badcompany]

Originally Posted by Clocker

Is that the show pool?

The women do tend to wear skimpy bikinis

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by badcompany

The women do tend to wear skimpy bikinis

Are those the ones that Grits says are a dime a dozen?

Gimme a dollar's worth.