Calling The Top

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Hoofless_Wonder

Raybo, I don't make a living trying to predict fads or trends. I thought VMware was a fad, so what do I know?

I will say this though - most of the bikers I know, myself included, would not be caught dead in a three-wheeler. They are for Grandmas. There are some older bikers who like them, and the obvious advantage for driving one down to the bar (and back home) is not to be overlooked. But a guy has to be in touch with his feminine side to be seen in one (men can be quite vain), and other men will not want their woman to drive a vehicle that provides little more safety than a motorcycle.

It'll be interesting to see how the marketing goes. It's one thing to be caught between two jacked-up pickups on the freeway when you've got a loud, macho Harley between your legs. It's a bit different experience to be on a scooter - or a three-wheeled go-cart.

Do the research, that's all I can suggest. And, as for "men will not want their woman to drive a vehicle that provides little more safety than a motorcycle", you need to check out the safety equipment and collision survivability features of this vehicle. It is much safer than any motorcycle ever built, and rivals medium sized traditional cars in that regard.

I too, am a bike guy, have been since the 70s, both street riding and MX racing, and I can't wait to get my hands on one. One of my neighbors is the president of a motorcycle club (The Sabres), who all drive Harleys and fly their colors, go on "runs" and support various charities through fundraisers, and all that other stuff that we see on TV and in the news, and he's almost as excited about the Elio as I am. I wouldn't want to say to his face, or any of their members, that "a guy has to be in touch with his feminine side to be seen in one", that probably wouldn't be good for your health, these guys are all "real" bikers, not "wannabe" bikers.

[_______]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QQh56geU0X8

The very best show ever on television did a segment on 3 wheel cars. Based on it, I will probably not be an investor.

Still can't believe they fired Jeremy.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by _______

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QQh56geU0X8

The very best show ever on television did a segment on 3 wheel cars. Based on it, I will probably not be an investor.

Still can't believe they fired Jeremy.

LOL - I saw that episode, unreal. But, as bad as that episode was, it is nowhere near the worst of them, there are many more that make even less sense and more poorly conceived. One of the worst shows on TV, IMO. Jeremy needed firing!

[raybo]

One last post, showing a couple of concepts from someone who is doing design concepts for reservation holders. Several Elio clubs are already reality and are planning club cruises. "Wraps" are being seriously considered by Elio as an add-on to the stock colors.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Originally Posted by raybo

Do the research, that's all I can suggest. And, as for "men will not want their woman to drive a vehicle that provides little more safety than a motorcycle", you need to check out the safety equipment and collision survivability features of this vehicle. It is much safer than any motorcycle ever built, and rivals medium sized traditional cars in that regard.

I too, am a bike guy, have been since the 70s, both street riding and MX racing, and I can't wait to get my hands on one. One of my neighbors is the president of a motorcycle club (The Sabres), who all drive Harleys and fly their colors, go on "runs" and support various charities through fundraisers, and all that other stuff that we see on TV and in the news, and he's almost as excited about the Elio as I am. I wouldn't want to say to his face, or any of their members, that "a guy has to be in touch with his feminine side to be seen in one", that probably wouldn't be good for your health, these guys are all "real" bikers, not "wannabe" bikers.

There's thousands of failed products and companies that had plenty of "research" to support their viability, so there's limited use of it. It does not provide good insight to quality or execution. At the same time I did not believe, nor can I still believe, how the popularity of overpriced iPhones and Harleys came about. That's why I'll be interested in their marketing approach, and if they can create a moat to make the Elio "hip". Otherwise it may go the route of the Betamax.

As for safety, you can't stand next to an Elio and medium sized car and believe it's just as safe. It may be, but when it comes to automotive safety, size matters, if only in the eye of the buyer and not in reality.

The price point also had me doubtful - it seems awfully good to be true, cheaper than Kaw 650 Versys, though not as fast. I can't believe the current three-wheeler market today $30K+ is all profit padding beyond $7K.

As for taunting the owners of Elio with their cute "girly" car, I won't have to do that - I'll predict the average Harley biker will be happy to do that for the rest of us. And I can just see the Elio owner coming out of his favorite restaurant to find he's been pranked - and his vehicle picked up and moved on top of the concrete flower pots on the sidewalk.

Don't get me wrong - I'm all in favor of smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles, having owned one all my life - starting with my new 1979 Dodge Omni I bought my last year of high school through the Mazda 3 I drive today - plus the 10 motorcycles I've owned as well. Maybe the U.S. and the world are ready for this kind of vehicle for popular adoption. We'll see.....

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Hoofless_Wonder

There's thousands of failed products and companies that had plenty of "research" to support their viability, so there's limited use of it. It does not provide good insight to quality or execution. At the same time I did not believe, nor can I still believe, how the popularity of overpriced iPhones and Harleys came about. That's why I'll be interested in their marketing approach, and if they can create a moat to make the Elio "hip". Otherwise it may go the route of the Betamax.

As for safety, you can't stand next to an Elio and medium sized car and believe it's just as safe. It may be, but when it comes to automotive safety, size matters, if only in the eye of the buyer and not in reality.

The price point also had me doubtful - it seems awfully good to be true, cheaper than Kaw 650 Versys, though not as fast. I can't believe the current three-wheeler market today $30K+ is all profit padding beyond $7K.

As for taunting the owners of Elio with their cute "girly" car, I won't have to do that - I'll predict the average Harley biker will be happy to do that for the rest of us. And I can just see the Elio owner coming out of his favorite restaurant to find he's been pranked - and his vehicle picked up and moved on top of the concrete flower pots on the sidewalk.

Don't get me wrong - I'm all in favor of smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles, having owned one all my life - starting with my new 1979 Dodge Omni I bought my last year of high school through the Mazda 3 I drive today - plus the 10 motorcycles I've owned as well. Maybe the U.S. and the world are ready for this kind of vehicle for popular adoption. We'll see.....

Well, that's the problem with all startups, you either get in or you wait and see. You have to weigh the risk against the possible reward of getting in at the beginning. I only posted it here because this is an investment forum.

Personally, I can't wait to get mine and drive the 1300 miles to visit my wife's family in Arlington, Va. Less than $3 per gallon, 8 gallon tank, over 600 miles per tank, that's about $24 per tank, about two tanks gets us there and two more gets us back, $96+ round trip. Beats the heck out of $700 round trip airfare for the two of us!

[badcompany]

From what I've read, they've had funding problems as well as production delays.

Does this not concern you, Ray?

[raybo]

Originally Posted by badcompany

From what I've read, they've had funding problems as well as production delays.

Does this not concern you, Ray?

Yes, the funding was of concern to me along with the delays encountered since 2013, but it appears they have things in place now and momentum has built tremendously recently. Their federal loan appears to be on track, they have recently started offering both qualified investors and non-qualified investors the opportunity to get involved, at last word they have over 43,000 reservations from future owners (almost 7000 in just the last 30 days alone). The former GM plant they obtained came with the production equipment included, they are now in the process of selling millions of dollars of surplus equipment not needed for the production of the Elio. And, the news about the activity to get standardized laws in place, both federally and state to state, as well as the introduction of the bill to create the new vehicle category, has relieved much of the confusion by the public regarding those issues.

All this recent "movement", and all the exposure they have received at the various auto shows, interviews, magazine and newspaper articles, and popularity gained via the current Elio Team US tour, many highly ranked global suppliers coming on board, and the commitment by Pep Boys to manage the servicing and warranty work, etc., gives me added confidence that production will indeed start in mid 2016.

IMO, Elio just needs to finalize the funding needed to hire and make payroll for the workers so production can begin. Once these things start hitting the roads I think the project takes off.

[whodoyoulike]

Sorry for changing the direction of the recent posts but, today (06/24/15) the transport index dropped almost 2% (8310.01... -157.87 ...-1.86%). This is one of the more important indexes which I follow.

What does anyone think it means?

[Ocala Mike]

Economic weakness ahead?

Did anything happen with oil today? Maybe it's got something to do with that PPA trade bill passing.

[whodoyoulike]

The index has been dropping since late last year compared to the other indexes rising.

[badcompany]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

Sorry for changing the direction of the recent posts but, today (06/24/15) the transport index dropped almost 2% (8310.01... -157.87 ...-1.86%). This is one of the more important indexes which I follow.

What does anyone think it means?

IMO, that index had been artificially inflated. Because of the Shale Oil Boom, the rails were making big bank transporting oil. Now, with oil @ $60 and looking range bound, a lot of that money figures to dry up.

Moreover, the Airlines had been "Flying High," and we're due for a correction.

Before the pullback, Delta had quintupled in price in just a couple of years.

[PICSIX]

Originally Posted by PICSIX

The following chart demonstrates how well an ADX peak has been at predicting a complete market reversal in the DJI. Now would be a good time to take a low-risk, long-term short entry.....

After posting, it looks like the chart is a little hard to see...It is a monthly chart beginning in 2006 to current.

This top is taking a long time but it feels like we are due for a correction.

[badcompany]

Originally Posted by PICSIX

This top is taking a long time but it feels like we are due for a correction.

You know, there is the possibility it's not a top.

[PICSIX]

Originally Posted by badcompany

You know, there is the possibility it's not a top.

Yes, that's very true. I'm expecting a run-up in the market here with earnings reports, after that I don't see anything left to push it any higher.

You might want to fade my opinion