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12-23-2021, 02:06 PM
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#1
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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is a puzzlement
Is a puzzlement!
There are times, perhaps in the range of 60% to 70 % of the time, my overlay exacta board does not produce a winning combination.
When those overlay combinations are excluded from my underlay exacta board, the underlay wins perhaps in the range of 60% to 70%. While the one winning singular combination is an underlay it returns a value that exceeds the probability of the entire underlay exacta board
HERE MY TWO EXACTA BOARDS, AN OVERLAY AND UNDERLAY EXACTA FOR TODAYS 3RD RACE AT SA VAAL
THE SHORT DESCRIPTION:
UNDERLAY EXACTA BOARD USED 88% OF THE EXACTA PROBABILITIES, REQUIRING A MIN $1 RETURN OF $1.14, THE 5/14 EXACTA RETURNED $1.63, WHILE A SINGULAR BET OF THE 5/14 PRODUCED A 67% UNDERLAY.
WHAT I AM NOTICING, A WIN BET ON THE FAVORITE USING THE SUM OF ITS LINE BETS MAY OUT PERFORM A STRAIGHT WIN BET ON THE FAVORITE
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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12-23-2021, 02:22 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,649
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I have noticed the same thing with daily doubles
with my odds line, the underlays have a higher hit rate than the overlays
so much so, now I use the underlayings on my win bets of the second race
but I am not in puzzlement, I just figure the bigger bettors have better information than me
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12-23-2021, 05:58 PM
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#3
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
Turf Paradise* Race 8
EACH HORSE FORMULA'S OVERLAY EXACTA BOARD BET SIZES SHOWN THE TOP ROW PGNO ARE WIN HORSE
WIN PROBABILITY pgno 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 LINE SUM
6% 1 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
2% 2 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
7% 3 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
0% 4 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
2% 5 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
3% 6 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
14% 7 ---- ---- $12 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 12
33% 8 $28 ---- $34 ---- $11 $16 $73 ---- ---- $79 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 241
17% 9 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
16% 10 ---- ---- $13 ---- ---- ---- $27 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 40
0% 11 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
0% 12 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
0% 13 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
0% 14 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
0% 15 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
0% 16 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
100% 292 28 0 59 0 11 16 99 0 0 79 0 0 0 0 0 0 292.49
FAV 2ND FAV 3RD FAV winning TRACK PAYOUT TRACK PAYOUT WINING NORMALIZED* $1 WIN RETURN NORMALIZED* % OF EXACT REQUIRED MIN $1
TRACK PGNO PGNO PGNO EXACAT COMBINATION $1 win return $1 exacta return TOTAL $ BET IN EXACTA POOL EXACTA RETURN EXACTA $1 RETURN USING SUM OF COLUMNS AS BET SIZE WIN $1 RETURN POOL PLAYED EXACTA RETURN
Turf Paradise* Race 8 8 9 10 $292.49 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 29% $3.42
INPUT INPUT INPUT CALCULATE CALCULATE
NORMALIZED: EACH BET SIZED SUMMED BY ITS TOTAL
0 0 FORMULA'S UNDERLAY EXACTA BOARD BET SIZES SHOWN. TOP ROW PGNO IS THE PLACE HORSE, THE COLUMN THE WIN HORSE
pgno 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 LINE SUM
1 ---- $1 ---- ---- $1 $2 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 4
2 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
3 $4 $1 ---- ---- $2 $2 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 9
4 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
5 ---- $0 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
6 ---- $1 ---- ---- $1 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1
7 $9 $3 ---- ---- $4 $5 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 22
8 ---- $10 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- $84 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 94
9 $11 $4 $14 ---- $4 $7 $29 ---- ---- $32 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 100
10 $10 $4 ---- ---- $4 $6 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 24
11 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
12 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
13 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
14 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
15 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
16 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- $0 $0 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
254 35 24 14 0 15 22 29 0 84 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 254.48
FAV 2ND FAV 3RD FAV winning TRACK PAYOUT TRACK PAYOUT WINING NORMALIZED* $1 WIN RETURN NORMALIZED* % OF EXACT REQUIRED MIN $1
TRACK PGNO PGNO PGNO EXACAT COMBINATION $1 win return $1 exacta return TOTAL $ BET IN EXACTA POOL EXACTA RETURN EXACTA $1 RETURN USING SUM OFLINE SUM AS BET SIZE WIN $1 RETURN POOL PLAYED EXACTA RETURN
Turf Paradise* Race 8 Race 8 8 9 10 $254.48 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 71% $1.41
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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12-23-2021, 08:36 PM
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#4
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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this was a winner
underlay excata 1/10 returned $2.03 on the dollar where the required minimum was $1.22
also the fav #1 had a win bet size of $241 returning $530
this was a winner, exceeding the losses on the previous posted race when nither overlay, underlay or fav won.
underlay excata 1/10 returned $2.03 on the dollar where the required minimum was $1.22
also the fav #1 had a win bet size of $241 returning $530
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 12-23-2021 at 08:42 PM.
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12-24-2021, 09:46 AM
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#5
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
SA Fairview* Race 8
EACH HORSE FORMULA'S OVERLAY EXACTA BOARD BET SIZES SHOWN THE TOP ROW PGNO ARE WIN HORSE track
WIN PROBABILITY pgno 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 LINE SUM WIN ODDS pgno
13% 1 ---- ---- ---- $6 ---- ---- ---- ---- $4 ---- ---- $8 ---- ---- ---- ---- 18 6.48 1
18% 2 ---- ---- ---- $9 ---- ---- ---- $13 ---- $15 $15 $12 $16 ---- ---- ---- 80 4.56 2
14% 3 ---- ---- ---- $6 $15 ---- ---- $9 ---- $11 ---- $9 $12 ---- ---- ---- 62 6.29 3
4% 4 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- $3 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 3 23.51 4
10% 5 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- $6 ---- $7 $7 $6 $8 ---- ---- ---- 35 9.33 5
0% 6 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 ---- 6
6% 7 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- $4 ---- ---- ---- ---- 4 14.41 7
6% 8 ---- ---- ---- $3 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- $3 ---- ---- ---- ---- 6 15.75 8
2% 9 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 39.67 9
7% 10 ---- ---- ---- $3 ---- ---- ---- $4 $2 ---- ---- $4 ---- ---- ---- ---- 13 13.98 10
7% 11 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- $4 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 4 13.71 11
5% 12 ---- ---- $8 $2 ---- ---- ---- ---- $1 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 12 17.52 12
7% 13 ---- ---- $11 $3 ---- ---- $5 $5 $2 $5 ---- $4 ---- ---- ---- ---- 36 12.59 13
0% 14 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 ---- 14
0% 15 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 ---- 15
0% 16 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 ---- 16
100% 272 0 0 19 33 15 0 5 45 9 38 22 50 36 0 0 0 271.51
FAV 2ND FAV 3RD FAV winning TRACK PAYOUT TRACK PAYOUT WINING NORMALIZED* $1 WIN RETURN NORMALIZED* % OF EXACT REQUIRED MIN $1 % OF WIN POOL
TRACK PGNO PGNO PGNO EXACAT COMBINATION $1 win return $1 exacta return TOTAL $ BET IN EXACTA POOL EXACTA RETURN EXACTA $1 RETURN USING SUM OF COLUMNS AS BET SIZE WIN $1 RETURN POOL PLAYED EXACTA RETURN PLAYED
SA Fairview* Race 8 2 3 1 $271.51 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 27% $3.68 27%
INPUT INPUT INPUT CALCULATE CALCULATE
NORMALIZED: EACH BET SIZED SUMMED BY ITS TOTAL
0.177241176364615 0.0243507021582016 FORMULA'S UNDERLAY EXACTA BOARD BET SIZES SHOWN. TOP ROW PGNO IS THE PLACE HORSE, THE COLUMN THE WIN HORSE
pgno 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 LINE SUM 1
1 ---- ---- ---- ---- $15 ---- $10 $9 ---- $10 $10 ---- $11 ---- ---- ---- 66 1
2 $29 ---- $30 ---- $21 ---- $14 ---- $5 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 100 1
3 $21 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- $10 ---- $4 ---- $11 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 46 1
4 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- $1 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 1
5 ---- ---- ---- $4 ---- ---- $7 ---- $3 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 14 1
6 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 1
7 ---- ---- ---- $3 ---- ---- ---- $4 $2 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 9 1
8 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- $2 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 2 1
9 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 1
10 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- $5 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 5 1
11 ---- ---- ---- $3 ---- ---- $5 ---- $2 $5 ---- $4 ---- ---- ---- ---- 18 1
12 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 1
13 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- $5 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 5 1
14 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 1
15 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 1
16 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- $0 $0 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 1
267 51 0 30 10 36 0 51 13 18 15 27 4 11 0 0 0 266.54 $1 EX $1
FAV 2ND FAV 3RD FAV winning TRACK PAYOUT TRACK PAYOUT WINING NORMALIZED* $1 WIN RETURN NORMALIZED* % OF EXACT REQUIRED MIN $1 % OF WIN POOL
TRACK PGNO PGNO PGNO EXACAT COMBINATION $1 win return $1 exacta return TOTAL $ BET IN EXACTA POOL EXACTA RETURN EXACTA $1 RETURN USING SUM OFLINE SUM AS BET SIZE WIN $1 RETURN POOL PLAYED EXACTA RETURN PLAYED
SA Fairview* Race 8 Race 8 2 3 1 $266.54 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 27% $3.75 0%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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12-24-2021, 10:41 AM
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#6
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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here is a better view of the race's winning underlay exacta board.
results are good, but i did find a clinker in the works.
the % of pools were not previously applied corectly..
the bet sizes on the favorite may be more promissing.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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12-31-2021, 09:01 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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_____________
just my personal opinion or preference - but anyway
I much prefer betting exactas when there is a cold fave going off at around 5/2
payouts should be pretty decent even if the fave is involved
for me - betting an exacta when the fave is 3/5 is out of the question
yes, if he's out the payoff will be nice - but so often he's in 1st or 2nd
and yes, if he comes with a shot it could be halfway decent too
but if he comes over the 2nd or 3rd fave or underneath one of them
forget about it
you're going to make a sour face when you see the payout
.
__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
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