Best Exacta Startegy ?

[douglasw32]

Okay-

So I can pretty much narrow it down to who will win or come 2nd and who the contenders are.

Doing pretty good with my KEY over 3 others and 3 others over my key horse.

But get burned sometime laying out $12.00 and having the exacta hit but only pay $7 something.

Is there a simple way to DUTCH exacta bets ?

[teddy]

Yes, premier has a thing that works well for small dutches like that. Beware it can get thrown off if you are only beting small amounts, due to difference in exacta payoffs. If you are betting a 2 increment I suggest you put in a bet of $2,000 so it gives you more accurate data. Just move the decimal and round the dollar amount. Other wise it can leave bets off your dutch due to the payoff being way more than the bet amount. Sorry if I am not clear but it sucks when u think u have the horse covered and it does not make the wager for u. That is if u are using thier service. Otherwise there are plenty of manual dutch calcs.

[teddy]

On strategy, my work with my data base says on exactas to use the top horses and leave off the overbet low quality horses. I think optimal is based on field size but usually top pick with the next 4 pics is pretty good. But in small fields that might be top with next 2. I love to reverse the chalk second, seems to pay way more than u would think.

[TrifectaMike]

Originally Posted by douglasw32

Okay-

So I can pretty much narrow it down to who will win or come 2nd and who the contenders are.

Doing pretty good with my KEY over 3 others and 3 others over my key horse.

But get burned sometime laying out $12.00 and having the exacta hit but only pay $7 something.

Is there a simple way to DUTCH exacta bets ?

I'm assuming you want to do this with software.

Let's state the problem in the following way:

You have exacta combinations e (e1,e2,e3, ...) and the odds associated with each exacta combination o (o1,o2,o3, ...).

Now define the profit you want to achieve p (p1,p2,p3, ...) on each exacta combo.

Set the problem up as a system of equations, and solve it.

Let's set up an example of three exacta combinations.
(this is a 3 by 3 matrix, let's name it A)

[o1 -1 -1]
[-1 o2 -1]
[-1 -1 o3]

and the profit vector (let's name it p)

[p1 p2 p3]

and what we are solving for (the amount to bet on each exacta combo,
let's name it b)

[b1 b2 b3]

This is the system of equations you will solve (using the Math package included with the program language):

Ab = p

If you want to implement this and need further help, let me know.

Mike

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by douglasw32

But get burned sometime laying out $12.00 and having the exacta hit but only pay $7 something.

Is there a simple way to DUTCH exacta bets ?

The simplest is to buy an extra exacta or two of the lowest-priced contender over your key, particularly if that contender is the favorite, which I presume it is if it's paying $7 on a $2 exacta. If, heaven forbid, you're keying the favorite, you'd buy extra part wheels with the fave on top. Otherwise you'll likely have to raise the investment considerably in order to level out the dutch across several contenders, not to mention collect data from the tote, which may change significantly after you bet. Those are prudent approaches, but they're less simple.

What's maddening about this is that you're throwing a large proportion of the investment at low-odds horses, possibly the favorite, but that's how dutching works. Since even modest exacta wheels like the ones you (and I) play will lose if the fave wins without dutching and escalating the bet size, I concluded that if I must play a favorite, I should cut the play way down, say, F/AB, but even that requires some value in A or B—that is, if A or B are the second fave, you're still likely stuck with an underlay. An $8 payout on the F/AB exacta just gets you back to an even-money proposition at $2 units, which I guess is an improvement over 3/5 win or whatever, but probably still an underlay unless you really believe in all your contenders. Trying to improve the odds with a cold exacta or tiny trifecta wheel really reduces the likely hit rate.

So most of the guys will probably say just don't play $8 propositions on $2 exactas because they're hopeless underlays (i.e., don't play favorites). You'll have a lower hit rate, but higher payoffs on lower investment. I don't mean to question your knowledge by trotting out the whole favorites thing, but it seems pertinent to a discussion of $8 exacta payouts on $12 investments with $2 units, and I've certainly observed the same thing in my humble experience and tried to reckon with it.

[xfile]

Overlay key horse going off at 8-1 or higher on top with ALL underneath. Frequently catch some big exactas.

[pandy]

It sounds like your playing too many low paying exactas. If you do not have a longshot key, betting 6 exactas is too much. Cut down your contenders from 3 to 2 and play your key in a $4 exacta box with your 2nd ranked horse, then play another $4 using your key horse on top of your 3rd ranked horse. That is also a $12 bet but if you hit, you get the exacta twice instead of once. Your hit percentage will drop a bit because you are playing less combos, but I guarantee you that this will increase your R.O.I.

If you have a longshot key horse, that's different, then you may be able to get away with what you're doing now, although the method I laid out will probably work better with longshot keys as well. Read Steven Crist's book on Exotic wagering. He shows you how to smash it, rather than nibble. The bottom line is, when you are right, you need to have it more than once.

[fmolf]

Originally Posted by pandy

It sounds like your playing too many low paying exactas. If you do not have a longshot key, betting 6 exactas is too much. Cut down your contenders from 3 to 2 and play your key in a $4 exacta box with your 2nd ranked horse, then play another $4 using your key horse on top of your 3rd ranked horse. That is also a $12 bet but if you hit, you get the exacta twice instead of once. Your hit percentage will drop a bit because you are playing less combos, but I guarantee you that this will increase your R.O.I.

If you have a longshot key horse, that's different, then you may be able to get away with what you're doing now, although the method I laid out will probably work better with longshot keys as well. Read Steven Crist's book on Exotic wagering. He shows you how to smash it, rather than nibble. The bottom line is, when you are right, you need to have it more than once.

the way i have been playing it for years,is as follows:
I have an overlay exacta chart that shows which combos are paying overlaid prices and which are underlaid.I then look up my combos odds on the chart to see what they are paying and crosscheck that to the exacta willpays.Sometimes the first two favs. are overlaid,mostly this combo seems to bean underlay though.By insisting you bet only overlaid combos you are assured of covering your bets when you hit.Dick Mitchell wrote a great chapter on exacta strategies in his book "Common Sense Betting " I highly recommend reading this book........the exacta chart canbe found in barry Meadows books.

[jfdinneen]

TrifectaMike,

I endorse your approach (using matrix solution to set of simultaneous linear equations). In Excel,B is {=MMULT(MINVERSE(A),P)}.

Perhaps, you would outline a worked example for clarity.

John

[pandy]

You method of using the overlay chart is perfectly logical. But sometimes you just want to bet a particular number. For instance, in harness racing I often bet two horse exacta boxes on horses that appear likely to line-up (race 1-2 all the way around). In those situations I don't care if the exacta pays $9.00 or $39.00, I'm betting it because I'm confident it's going to come in. I'm not going to pass on a winner because the exacta is paying 10% less than my "perfect price." Nobody really knows what the correct odds are, you are just taking a guess.

I've found that any bet that I feel has a strong chance of winning, whether it's an exacta or a win bet, is usually an overlay. I hit an exacta today that paid $8.80, looked like a lock. If you had asked me what I think it should pay before the race I probably would've said $10.00, but after the two horses ran 1-2 far ahead of the rest of the field I realized that $8.80 was actually an overlay.

[RaceBookJoe]

Originally Posted by pandy

You method of using the overlay chart is perfectly logical. But sometimes you just want to bet a particular number. For instance, in harness racing I often bet two horse exacta boxes on horses that appear likely to line-up (race 1-2 all the way around). In those situations I don't care if the exacta pays $9.00 or $39.00, I'm betting it because I'm confident it's going to come in. I'm not going to pass on a winner because the exacta is paying 10% less than my "perfect price." Nobody really knows what the correct odds are, you are just taking a guess.

I've found that any bet that I feel has a strong chance of winning, whether it's an exacta or a win bet, is usually an overlay. I hit an exacta today that paid $8.80, looked like a lock. If you had asked me what I think it should pay before the race I probably would've said $10.00, but after the two horses ran 1-2 far ahead of the rest of the field I realized that $8.80 was actually an overlay.

Was that the LBJ heat...think the top 2 were 4-5 and even. Since you cashed your ticket, i guess you could say that you got "over" what you "layed"

[CincyHorseplayer]

Pandy makes a great point.You should be betting the exacta because you like 2 horses in a race or 1 horse with 2 others and expect it to run that way.Or it really isn't worth messing with.

I have been guilty of trying to force less combinations in an attempt to bang up a race,when it's wide open,but I hardly go through and think in terms of "let's line up Horse A with the 3rd and 4th choices because they are overlays" etc etc.

If a race is truly wide open beyond the single horse you like,bet to win or horizontally or don't bet at all.I'd have a base denomination and box all contenders with your key horse.Then assign your own denominations to specific combinations according to the strength of your own opinion.There is no mechanistic way of doing that.Unless eliminating thought is the objective!!

[douglasw32]

Wow, okay thanks everyone, lot to think about.

It seems the simplest would be to look for any that will not pay 50% more than I am betting, and use a different combo with the key.

May miss a few but wouldn't it pay off in the long run.

[xfile]

This chart might be helpful to someone on the topic of overlay exactas. You will need to use an oddsline with it:
http://www.fullcardreports.com/CAP/o_e_c.asp

[CincyHorseplayer]

Just don't believe the myth that the exacta is a low probability sucker bet.That's one of the biggest pieces of BS I hear on a regular basis.Picking a horse to win or place with logical contenders,if you have even a rudimentary knowledge of the game is a high cash situation.

But beyond that it presents one of the best ROI situations in the game.Don't force it,but get aggressive on races where YOU think you know what is going to happen and the payoffs are solid.