Hong Kong Sep. 21st Happy Valley

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong for September 21st at Happy Valley.
Weather report: 76 degrees partly cloudy with a 10% chance of rain wind: ENE 15mph.
Post time: 7.15am ET 4.15pm PT Rail: “C” Course, track listed: Good to Yielding

Links to past performances:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/conten...tarter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html
http://www.drf.com/hk (With a link to a live video feed)

Vulnerable favourites:
Race 1 Glory Star (4-1) Trained by a 2 percenter and the rider still hasn’t killed the duck. Was outrun by a longshot who didn’t finish all that impressive.
RACE 4 Super Sweet Orange (7-2) Trainer had a horrible win percentage with favourites last year and is starting the new meet in that same fashion. Runner has a bad habit of moving into contention and then just flattening out.

Races with runners coming out of key races (multiple winners that have come back out of those races and won at or higher class than today's).
None

Horses off my watch list:
Race 3 Supreme Flight (13-1): Race 15 Flat-footed at start, ridden to make up ground, settling in box seat. Disappointed for run 500m, blocked top of straight, switched out 180m to get run, boxed on.
Race 8 Little Island (11-1): Race *743 Close up in 4th, always within striking distance, loomed 250M, beaten off by first two 100M but held 3rd comfortably. Race *685 Raced against rail in midfield, pushed along 400M, responded moderately, tight for room mid-straight and late stages, never a serious threat.

Longshots:
Race 3 Supreme Flight (13-1)
Race 4 Entrusting (11-1)
Race 6 Presidentparamount (10-1) and Happy Surveys (16-1)
Race 8 Sharp Sailor (16-1)

[Nitro]

Good morning Woody!
It looks like another value packed day at Happy Valley with big fields in ALL 8 Turf races.

I won’t be posting live selections at Hong Kong any longer for a number of reasons.
But I took a look at the M/L’s and the early odds and came up with some preliminary picks for each race. Hopefully the live tote action will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. Later tote action (by 5 mins to post) may cause Key pick alterations, but they all look pretty solid for some nice Quinella & Tri scores. The most competitive race seems to be #8.
Good Luck today!

R#1 – 1800M (9F) Turf...... 2-4 W/ 1-3-9.............7:15 AM EST

R#2 - 1800M (9F) Turf...... 3-1 W/ 9-5-6-12........7:45 AM EST

R#3 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 3-4 W/ 7-5-1-2...........8:15 AM EST

R#4 - 1650M (8.25F) Turf...... 4-9 W/ 3-7-12-10...8:45 AM EST

R#5 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 8-3 W/ 5-2-11-9.........9:15 AM EST

R#6 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 4-2 W/ 12-11-3-9.......9:45 AM EST

R#7 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 3-2 W/ 1-5-12-4........10:15 AM EST

R#8 -1650M (8.25F) Turf..... 6-8 W/ 12-7-2-9....10:50 AM EST

[kevb]

hello Woodbine

[kevb]

R1:

Q /

[woodbinepmi]

Race 1 Class 4 1800 Metres

Golden Dragon (8-1) Was bet down after the break in meets, chased a lone speed winner and was just not fast enough to catch him. Will need pace, so hopefully the , and hook up on the front end. Not all that keen on the favourite Glory Star (3-1) Chased a quitter but was outrun by a longshot who finished up on his wrong lead .

Over

Morning Kevb

[woodbinepmi]

Race 1 results:

- - Winner paid $ 156

Didn't see that one coming, lone speed kills.

[woodbinepmi]

After the first 2 races, looks like the best place to be is close to the front. The times have been fast by a little over a length so far, with both races pretty weak fields for their classes. Haven't seen anything that has caught my eye for their next race out. Still enjoying Moreira being out.

[woodbinepmi]

Race 3 Class 4 1200 Metres

Supreme Flight (12-1) Ran into serious trouble while being blocked in the stretch in his first race after the break while being beaten by the favourite (#3 in here) who had a much easier trip. Worried about the weight allowance but willing to take the plunge at the price.

Over

[woodbinepmi]

Race 3 results:

- - Winner pays: $ 15.40

Tough beat, lost by 3/4 of a length at 11-1, no excuse just got outrun in the lane.

[kevb]

R4:

WP

[woodbinepmi]

Race 4 Class 4 1650 Metres

Taking a flyer on the Entrusting (9-1) ran into some trouble on the dirt in his last, if he can run to his race 3 back he could be there close at the wire, not all that keen about playing a maiden after 22 races.

[woodbinepmi]

Race 4 results:

- - Winner pays: $ 10.40

[woodbinepmi]

Race 5 Class 4 1200 Metres

Got to nothing here.

[kevb]

R5:

Sets up for a closer

WP

[Nitro]

It turned out to be a pretty good morning! The final tote analysis confirmed some of the early picks as well as pointing to a few other entries getting good action. The only real surprise came in Race #1 where a big LS scored.

R#1 – 1800M (9F) Turf...... 2-4 W/ 1-3-9
Results: 10-5-3-8

R#2 - 1800M (9F) Turf...... 3-1 W/ 9-5-6-12
Results: 9-12-3-4

R#3 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 3-4 W/ 7-5-1-2
Results: 7-3-1-4

R#4 - 1650M (8.25F) Turf...... 4-9 W/ 3-7-12-10
Results: 1-7-6-5

R#5 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 8-3 W/ 5-2-11-9
Results: 5-1-9-11

R#6 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 4-2 W/ 12-11-3-9
Results: 4-10-1-12

R#7 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 3-2 W/ 1-5-12-4
Results: 1-8-3-4

R#8 -1650M (8.25F) Turf..... 6-8 W/ 12-7-2-9
Results: 7-10-12-8