Passing the last race

[oddsmaven]

An observation about the emotions of betting.

I try to be selective in which races to bet but I've noticed something about myself...I have great patience early in the card, but not at the end...particularly the last race...it's usually a big field with tempting prices...I often get sucked in on a stab that I hadn't planned on betting in these...something in my mind is saying, "you waited around - don't let it be for nothing...the "action" is coming to an end, don't miss out!"

Lately, I've been able to tell myself that there's tomorrow or the next day...hopefully that restraint will continue.

Does anyone else find passing the last race of the day tougher than others?

[ryesteve]

Originally Posted by oddsmaven

Lately, I've been able to tell myself that there's tomorrow or the next day...

Yeah, that's the thing. I don't even think in terms of "the last race"... there's never a "last race" (at least not anytime soon, I hope!)

[BlueShoe]

Very good point,this is a trap that I often fall into.On trips to my otb site,early in the day am disciplined and pass races that I should.Later on,as the wins and losses accumulate,find myself passing fewer races.The last race of the day take a shot stab play is almost always a given,usually a medium priced horse in a bad race.As a rough estimate,would say that the first race on the days menu is passed about three times as often as the last race.This is not wise wagering,and I know it.Like so many other players,including some very good handicappers,my major weaknes is playing too many races,and not passing races that I have no business in.

[Tom]

I like to do the last race on a card - too many people trying to get even and you can find overlays sometimes. I do the last races first, so that if I start running short of time, I have X number ready to bet and just pick up the card wherever that is. If I do races 1,2,3 and then run out of time, I still can work later races sloppily. Going the other way prevents me from betting races I have haven't looked at properly.

[jonnielu]

Usually, I'm passing early because the feature and last race are often the most opportune races of the day. The feature, because it is a race where ability is the single most dominant factor, and a pointed focus on the part of all stables can be depended on.

The last of the day, because it is usually wide open, and the odds are virtually meaningless. If you have had a tough day, just bet against the handicapper here, 180 degrees opposite.

It is impossible for you to miss anything in horse racing, what just happened will always have some influence on what is going to happen next. Passing the whole first half of a card just gives you more opportunity to observe what is happening now, and what will be likely to happen in the later races of the day.

jdl

[Robert Goren]

I have discovered that in the last race the favorites are way under bet. I have seen horses if they were in an earlier race they would have been even money or less go off at 5/2. Even exactas with lower odds horses can be good values. True it is usually a maiden claimer, but there can real value found on some very likely winners. A plus is that if there is some sort of track bias I should have found it by then.

[macguy]

Originally Posted by Tom

I like to do the last race on a card - too many people trying to get even and you can find overlays sometimes.

This is very true.
Often times there are really good overlays in the place and show pools, because by the end of the card many people are playing the tri's and supers in an attempt to make a big hit, or perhaps try and get even by the end of the day.

I often see horses paying some decent prices to show in the last race (even lower priced horses) because people just tend not to make those kinds of wagers late in the day.

That being said, I usually pass the last race or two on the card. The last races are usually the cheap ones with the big fields, with horses that tend not to run to form. I prefer to beat the crowds out of the parking lot and just head home.

[DanG]

I believe most single track players would improve their bottom line if they handicapped starting with the last race. If nothing else for the reason most people don’t.

As was stated before in this thread; the last race has all types of inefficiencies built in…

• People chasing losses.
• People stabbing with (the worst phrase in racing) “house money”.
• People who are on their 19th adult beverage.
• People who used their premier concentration in the early races.
• People who haven’t adjusted to a short term bias.
• People who have built up such an irrational rage against TVG their ready to strangle the next poor schmuck who knocks on their door.

We like to think we attack each race with the same intensity; but if you take a comprehensive approach there are only so many hours before your on fumes and human nature has your mind channel surfing and / or posting on the net.

[Charli125]

Originally Posted by Tom

I like to do the last race on a card - too many people trying to get even and you can find overlays sometimes. I do the last races first, so that if I start running short of time, I have X number ready to bet and just pick up the card wherever that is. If I do races 1,2,3 and then run out of time, I still can work later races sloppily. Going the other way prevents me from betting races I have haven't looked at properly.

That is excellent advice, that I've never thought of. I have often fallen victim to rushing later races, and have historically done better earlier in the card.

[fmolf]

Originally Posted by Charli125

That is excellent advice, that I've never thought of. I have often fallen victim to rushing later races, and have historically done better earlier in the card.

yes it is.I have been playing nyra for 35 yrs and i always play the last race.The overlays are usually so fat on the first and second choices in the win pools that i sometimes bet them both.After the second choice when you start to get around 9/2 you begin to see them as underlays.The overlays used to be better before simulcasting.

[Robert Goren]

I know I would be lot more profitable if I only played the last race. Only 1 torn up ticket instead of 10!

[Overlay]

Originally Posted by oddsmaven

Does anyone else find passing the last race of the day tougher than others?

No, because I use objective criteria for my odds determination, as I do with any other race. That removes emotion from the equation, and lets the toteboard determine my course of action as far as passing or playing.

[NY BRED]

actually, playing the first race on an agressuve basis can be
equally dangerous as ther may be a bias which isn't apparent.

Flip side is the odds can be equally as advantegous as the last
race for the various reasons already stated in the above postings.

[brdman12]

Although I agree, I think I play the last race more because in the later races there are usually more horses running, thus hopefully better odds.