What have you learned lately?

[CBedo]

What have you learned recently (or had forgotten and recently had it reintroduced) that has helped improve your handicapping and your results?

I am constantly evolving (and sometimes devolving) as a handicapper, and am always learning (lots from you guys and gals here at PA) or trying to learn. I was thinking tonight about things I've come up with lately.

One thing I've learned lately is that jockeys suck! That's a bit of an overstatement, but not a total exaggeration.

THE BEFORE: Having for the most part emphasized So Cal and NY in the past, for the most part, the jockeys are all pretty competent (or they don't make it there). Maybe because of that, I have long been of the opinion that for the most part, the jockey didn't matter. They were mainly passengers along for the ride, just guiding their mounts to the right spots.

WHAT'S CHANGED: As I have gotten more engrossed in developing models to play large numbers of tracks, I have begun to watch some much smaller tracks with some not so hall of fame jockeys. I have seen some horrendous rides (some on my horse, some not). I've seen jockeys on the seemingly clearly the best horse decide he needs to pace duel with a hopeless 50/1 shot. I've seen jockeys use just enough horse coming out of the gate to park their mounts 5 wide going into the turn. I've seen natural front running athletes being strangled back "to save energy."

THE LESSON: I still do not upgrade horses based on having a good jockey, but I have learned (or relearned) that a terrible jockey can most definitely hurt the chances of my horse, and I have to pay more attention to that factor.

WHAT HAVE YOU LEARNED LATELY?

[ManeMediaMogul]

Someone posted a lengthy study on recent action:

Horses who have 45-day or more layoffs only win 10% of the time. That is a very valuable stat in my handicapping/line making scenario.

[rusrious]

blood lines.. The breeding of the race horse is improtant,

[lamboguy]

stay away from horses that were in the OBS sale this year no matter how matter how much someone paid for the horse.

[rokitman]

There are not many things less common than common sense.

[classhandicapper]

Horses are a llittle more versatile across the various surfaces than I previously thought. I think a lot of the fluctuations in form we see have more to do with "energy profile" of the surface/distance than the horse's surface preference. Also, speed figures are not comparable.

[ryesteve]

I learned that, despite a thread mocking it a month or two ago, the LIRR is actually a pretty nice and convenient way to get in and out of Belmont Park.

[Tampa Russ]

I've learned that I am almost always better off downgrading any horse that drifted and recently added front wraps. It's easy for me to get a bit careless playing 6 or 7 tracks at once. Good preparation is a must.

[markgoldie]

Let's see... I ordered and subsequently cancelled a subscription to Full Card Reports. Even though I know a lot of members here use it for spot plays, etc., I found it badly deficient for my purposes.

I found that the new post-time odds for any horse with a Bris Prime Power that is 9 points or more higher than the rest of the field is 1-5. However, the good news is that they seem to be paying $2.60 more than $2.40, so the average may be above $2.50. This reinforced my belief that "negative" handicapping skills are far more important than positive handicapping skills.

Learned to give thanks for harness racing or else these Monday and Tuesday offerings would be completely unbearable.

Learned that unlike fmolf, Cadillakin will not post every day of the week. In fact, his absence has me wondering if he is busy preparing his next ROI report for us.

I must admit, not much of substance...

Mark

[KidCapper]

I have learned that I cannot win betting every race. I have also learned that I think I can win every race..

[DeanT]

I learned that I can't pick a winner if my life depends on it lately.

I recently read a jock chapter in a UK book Cbedo. You might be happy to know that statistical modeling actually shows that jockeys can make a difference - in jump races. It does not help me much, but when Kentucky Downs runs some jump races I am betting jockeys. I am looking for the jock with the springiest legs.

[fmolf]

Originally Posted by KidCapper

I have learned that I cannot win betting every race. I have also learned that I think I can win every race..

I have learned some nice ways to structure trifecta tickets and how to determine when their is value present.
I have learned maybe i should post less!

[cj]

Originally Posted by ManeMediaMogul

Someone posted a lengthy study on recent action:

Horses who have 45-day or more layoffs only win 10% of the time. That is a very valuable stat in my handicapping/line making scenario.

Do you know the win percentage of horses that are coming off less than a 45 day break?

I have the following over the last few years, excluding 1st timers...

<45 days, 12.81% win percentage, ROI 75.79% (based on 100% break even)
>45 days, 11.01% win percentage, ROI 72.13%

Personally, I wouldn't put too much stock into that single factor.

[Bison]

Originally Posted by CBedo

THE BEFORE: Having for the most part emphasized So Cal and NY in the past, for the most part, the jockeys are all pretty competent (or they don't make it there).

You'll also get garbage rides at So Cal and NY. Just watch Desormeaux long enough, and you'll get the idea.The only time he Goes to the front is when he shouldn't. He also generally strangles anything with early speed.

[Bison]

Originally Posted by ManeMediaMogul

Someone posted a lengthy study on recent action:

Horses who have 45-day or more layoffs only win 10% of the time. That is a very valuable stat in my handicapping/line making scenario.

How does this stat help you? This isn't much different than the norm of 11%.