cutting back in distance

[bucksboy]

Question for the pros....I hear a guy on tvg who always seems to include
horses on his tickets who are "cutting back in distance". I have really never
considered this angle in my handicapping. I look at the babies going long for
the first time with Tomlinsons and breeding, but I can't get a handle on this
"cut back" angle. I guess I am asking for an explanation. What is the benefit
of this angle and how much weight do you put into it when handicapping ??
I hope this is not a stupid question. I'm just trying to get a handle on it.
Thanks in advance for any help.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all

[GaryG]

It helps to know your trainer. There are several who use a route race as a tightener for a winning effort in a sprint. Look at the overall record and see if the trainer has a plan or is just grasping at straws. If a router has a 2nd call pace fig that is competitive with others sprint figs he may be an excellent play. Prior success sprinting and sharp tactical speed are necessary. By reading pp's this way you will soon see why some trainers almost never win. Thiis angle is even better at 7F and at tracks without a severe speed bias. Hope this helps you.

[green80]

more horses win that have been running short and go long than horses that have been running long and shorten up.

[john del riccio]

Buck,


If you have access to solid pace figures, I have an angle that has worked very well for me over the years. Here it is, Merry XMAS.

Dirt races only.

Horse must have run within 5 weeks.

Horse must be cutting back from a TWO-TURN route (1 Mi - 1 3/16 Mi)
to a one turn race (6f-1mi).

Horse must have shown a solid race within a 1/2f of todays distance.

The pace figure the horse earned in its last race must be NO MORE than two lengths slower than the speed figure earned by the horses running within a 1/2f of todays distance in their last two tries within a 1/2f of todays distance.

Note the last race must be over a FAST track.

Thats the golden goose.

John

PS If you want a higher win% you can add the following.

Either the trainer or the jock must have a win% of 15% or more.

This last criteria will take yu off some very large priced horses but it will also
protect you from poor connections who don't have it togther from hurting you.

Originally Posted by bucksboy

Question for the pros....I hear a guy on tvg who always seems to include
horses on his tickets who are "cutting back in distance". I have really never
considered this angle in my handicapping. I look at the babies going long for
the first time with Tomlinsons and breeding, but I can't get a handle on this
"cut back" angle. I guess I am asking for an explanation. What is the benefit
of this angle and how much weight do you put into it when handicapping ??
I hope this is not a stupid question. I'm just trying to get a handle on it.
Thanks in advance for any help.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all

[onefast99]

Originally Posted by john del riccio

Buck,


If you have access to solid pace figures, I have an angle that has worked very well for me over the years. Here it is, Merry XMAS.

Dirt races only.

Horse must have run within 5 weeks.

Horse must be cutting back from a TWO-TURN route (1 Mi - 1 3/16 Mi)
to a one turn race (6f-1mi).

Horse must have shown a solid race within a 1/2f of todays distance.

The pace figure the horse earned in its last race must be NO MORE than two lengths slower than the speed figure earned by the horses running within a 1/2f of todays distance in their last two tries within a 1/2f of todays distance.

Note the last race must be over a FAST track.

Thats the golden goose.

John

PS If you want a higher win% you can add the following.

Either the trainer or the jock must have a win% of 15% or more.

This last criteria will take yu off some very large priced horses but it will also
protect you from poor connections who don't have it togther from hurting you.

Does this method work as well on the inner at Aqueduct, and a Merry Christmas to you and your family!

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by green80

more horses win that have been running short and go long than horses that have been running long and shorten up.

i like the answer you gave most of the time. it seems that horses that are not stake horses are weaker the longer they go. lots of times the reason why sprint horses go short is because of breathing limitations. they put out a great effor for say 5 eighths of a mile and hang on to win. by the time they have gone that distance they have knocked out the rest of the competion. the most dificultdistance to figure is 7/8, i try to bet on horses that have already performed well at the distance vs horses that look like they might have some upside either stretching out or cutting back.

the most important thing to consider on any distance change is that the starting gate is in a new position for the horse. a good trainer will have his horses prepped for the change. its not as simple as just running in a new distance without adapting.

[the little guy]

In my opinion, there is no better money making angle than turnbacks.

[Harvhorse]

Trainers often use turn backs on sprinters that run out of stamina in the strech. A strech out is used to give the horse more bottom when he is cut back.

[bucksboy]

Little guy,

Can you elaborate ???

[Harvhorse]

I really cna not elaborate, It's pretty straight forward, a strech out builds stamina, so that when the horse is cut back he has more stamina to continue to the finish line in front.

[classhandicapper]

I think John's angle is a very good one.

I tend to look for any early speed horse coming out of route whose 6F pace fraction is comparable or better to the speed figures of the other contenders.

The one thing you want to be careful about is how the pace figures are calculated relative to final times.

For example:

A final time of 112 for 6F is typically not rated the same as 6F in 112 when it's the fraction of a route. The route fraction will have a higher rating because it's part of a longer race and the horses are generally not all out.

I try to adjust them to equality. I believe the DRF Moss pace/final time ratings are already adjusted to be equal because his figures are calculated differently than most people make them.

I also tend to insist that the horse be a speed horse. Some of the horses that get to the 6F point of a route in decent time get outrun badly in sprints and can't reproduce that time in a sprint.

[098poi]

I like a horse who has run on or near the lead for the first 2 calls in one race and then cuts back to a distance where he has been successful in the past and the horse is the type who wins from the front or leading group. If he tails off after the second call and loses by many lengths (in the longer race) that's O.K. because this can be a workout within a race.

[point given]

Good question. I too find that I don't have as good a handle on the cutbacks as the stretchouts. Trying to look for it more this year since TLG put it out there a while back. I look for patterns of possible trainer intent, but sometimes get screwed up by stats that don't support the angle. Someone mentioned about knowing your trainers on the circuit and I think that is key as well as what meet the trainer is aiming his stock for, which changes. As you stated, its a more difficult feel angle and hope TLG answers your question witha more elaborate answer. Happy Holidays !

[Overlay]

I never eliminate any horse entirely from consideration, but a horse cutting back generally will be at longer odds in my line (especially if not having been forwardly placed early in its last race).

[whyhorseofcourse]

Look out for speed jocks in this angle.
There are plenty of jocks that love to be on the front end. And I will give you a hint, most of them are very underbet.