my take on the bel-most stakes

[boys at tosconova]

the way i see this race is tiz has one horse as his main competition.. tap it to win. tap it's last race makes was more spectacular than almost every 3yr old to date.

would it really surprise anyone if he won this on the engine bottoming the field. those 2 route races last year look like an ez toss the way the horse just ran destroying a good allow group @ 1-1/16 in almost track record fashion.

after those you basically have 2 horses. dr. post and pneumatic..both could be sitting on a big race..and back in the weeds there is solo volante who could be a threat. but i'm a little less optimistic with him due to his running style and him being overvalued. he's gonna have to pass some good horses this race. it wouldn't surprise me that much if he did run his race and close well again. so 2nd is within his reach. but in order for that to happen tap it goes backwards on the lead and dr post and pneumatic just aren't classy enough..and to be honest, volante still kind of has to answer that question himself.

dr post is dangerous and on the upward tick but not having been class tested presents some questions. it's ez to see he's getting better as well. the same exact thing could be said about pneumatic. much like dr post this horse will have built in plausible excuses for the foreseeable future being lightly raced if he makes modest gains. last race was pretty good arguing the lead, and the horse took a crap load of $$$ as well....he could be better in here, but they both still need to be tested for class. tap it and tiz are ahead of them imo..but it wouldn't surprise completely me that if either stepped up and ran a giant race either....but both will need to much better in order to win.

[Suff]

I don’t know if its been mentioned. But when I look for a reason to not bet Tiz The Law its the post.

He’s never had a clean trip and from that post another rough trip spells trouble for him & others. Iffy-trips might catch up to him.

[Immortal6]

TTL could romp here BUT, who has he beat his last couple races? Ete Indien? Who has come back to do what exactly? I’m beginning to wonder if TTL can just stalk and pounce on mediocre speed types. Is Tap It to Win a mediocre speed or is he developing into a real G1 horse? Is Pneumatic going to break on top of TTL and clear him for better position? Pneumatic might be much better suited for the 1 turn race here. Then there is of course Sole Volante who you can also say, who has he really beaten? But man, his last race closing kick was impressive visually and going by fractions.

I’m against Dr Post and of the others I think Modernist and Max Player have a shot a 3rd or 4th with a great trip/setup.

I would love to TTL to be a monster and run through the triple crown. I bet him in his maiden for a few bucks and have had a soft spot for him but I’m just not sold on “singling” him on top at even money or less just yet.

[Robert Fischer]

---Contenders---
Tap It to Win will be asked to run his brilliant Allowance race, back. If he does, he wins or gets 2nd.
I don't think he will. It's asking a lot of the 3yo, and his price is going to be terrible.

Tiz the Law is a legit Grade 1 3yo. Cream rises to the top here. Plenty of time for the best horse to stalk in position, but the flow should be forward-favoring in general.


Fore Left, Modernist, and Pneumatic all benefit from the setup.
Fore Left is obviously the most interesting of the three at 30/1, but all are reasonably interesting to be a part of exotics.


Dr Post is a wildcard. He looks like a nice animal. The more brilliant of the two Pletcher entrants. Morning line feels a little low, but he's a wildcard who could compete with


---Tossing---
Sole Volante from the exacta. Anyone can run 3rd or 4th in this race, but this guy is 9/2 second-choice ml, and I don't like anything about him other than being a fundamentally sound closer. Today, the 'flow' is against him, and the rivals are better.


Tentative bet = / exacta, maybe the tri w/ same #s, maybe play around with the long shot in some underneath slots in a dime superfecta as well?

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Immortal6

TTL could romp here BUT, who has he beat his last couple races? Ete Indien? Who has come back to do what exactly? I’m beginning to wonder if TTL can just stalk and pounce on mediocre speed types. Is Tap It to Win a mediocre speed or is he developing into a real G1 horse? Is Pneumatic going to break on top of TTL and clear him for better position? Pneumatic might be much better suited for the 1 turn race here. Then there is of course Sole Volante who you can also say, who has he really beaten? But man, his last race closing kick was impressive visually and going by fractions.

I’m against Dr Post and of the others I think Modernist and Max Player have a shot a 3rd or 4th with a great trip/setup.

I would love to TTL to be a monster and run through the triple crown. I bet him in his maiden for a few bucks and have had a soft spot for him but I’m just not sold on “singling” him on top at even money or less just yet.

i duuno,....2 G1 wins.....135mile second lifetime race winning by 3L..

142 @ 1/16. drawing away.....imo the horse may not even have shown his best yet.

[Immortal6]

I’m just playing devils advocate here...again I love the horse and do think he is the one to beat...but, I’m not talking times here. Tell me, who is the best horse he has finished in front of?

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Immortal6

I’m just playing devils advocate here...again I love the horse and do think he is the one to beat...but, I’m not talking times here. Tell me, who is the best horse he has finished in front of?

if you want to knock him by minimizing two G1 wins and several fast times because none of the 2yr olds he faced came back to be dominant the following year, bmg. you can only beat who you face. that's pretty much reaching to find knocks.

but,...i hope he runs 2nd/3rd. how can you not like 6-1 fixed odds on casse right now.

[clicknow]

At 9F, this isn't the Belmont. If this were the actual Belmont, Tiz would have zero chance. This is just like wagering one of the prep races that happens every year in advance of the KY Derby. This time there's an excuse for shortening the distance, but we've been on this trajectory for quite some time, so I look to other jurisdictions in the world that value the breed to provide a more robust spectrum of races so the breed can express itself on the track --- which would include a true classic distance thoroughbred. Horses here cannot express ability at those distances if the races aren't offered and/or are offered very seldom. For anyone looking for clues in pedigree, considering the lack of classic distance races in the US and 95% of the races being under 9F, there's no real way to judge that.

We aren't watching Siskin or Stradivarius here, that's for sure.

My thought was to at least be able to use this race to give some indication of who can get 1-1/4 KY Derby, but the Derby is a chaos race so I can't go by that, either.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by clicknow

At 9F, this isn't the Belmont. If this were the actual Belmont, Tiz would have zero chance. This is just like wagering one of the prep races that happens every year in advance of the KY Derby. This time there's an excuse for shortening the distance, but we've been on this trajectory for quite some time, so I look to other jurisdictions in the world that value the breed to provide a more robust spectrum of races so the breed can express itself on the track --- which would include a true classic distance thoroughbred. Horses here cannot express ability at those distances if the races aren't offered and/or are offered very seldom. For anyone looking for clues in pedigree, considering the lack of classic distance races in the US and 95% of the races being under 9F, there's no real way to judge that.

We aren't watching Siskin or Stradivarius here, that's for sure.

B!tch much?

[Fightingirish51195]

I love the . No disrespect to tiz the law (who I expect to be in the exacta).

[boys at tosconova]

i'm so sick of hearing "this isn't a real triple crown", or "this isn't a a real belmont stakes"

it's nauseating after the 100th time...suck it up, or go follow colin kap's twitter.

horse racing is the only game in town.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195

I love the . No disrespect to tiz the law (who I expect to be in the exacta).

i'm going to use him underneath. i just don't think it's his time for the whole enchilada...

horse is still learning to race, don't know where the horse is gonna be, don't like the post, don't think he's seasoned enough, might not be classy enough

will prolly use modernist a lil underneath as well. at least you know he'll be up close sucking along, hoping to have some kick. tactical speed and positioning play.

[Fightingirish51195]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

i'm going to use him underneath. i just don't think it's his time for the whole enchilada...

horse is still learning to race, don't know where the horse is gonna be, don't like the post, don't think he's seasoned enough, might not be classy enough

will prolly use modernist a lil underneath as well. at least you know he'll be up close sucking along, hoping to have some kick. tactical speed and positioning play.

I actually love the post. Should have more than enough speed to get out and sit a really nice trip.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195

I actually love the post. Should have more than enough speed to get out and sit a really nice trip.

well,...i don't know about that. maybe wishful thinking. the more i looked at the race the more it seemed like it was going to be harder for him imo.

you know the 1 is jetting out....the 4 is gonna leave as well.....6 has some pretty quick opening quarters as well, and did just wire a 16 horse field.

tiz the law is going to leave for position, and even dr post even looks faster early than pneumatic....imo he has to try an not argue the lead or even push for it. a wide journey or country fried chicken seems inevitable if he does.

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

i'm so sick of hearing "this isn't a real triple crown", or "this isn't a a real belmont stakes"

it's nauseating after the 100th time...suck it up, or go follow colin kap's twitter.

horse racing is the only game in town.

I totally agree and posted such in another thread. Only to have two goobers shoot me down immediately. My question to these people. What are you gonna do? There’s a natural disaster occurring. It is what it is. Like I said in the other thread , you could be handicapping two roaches racing across the floor at this point. We all know the deal, the sport , that crap doesn’t tell me a thing . I’ve been betting horses for 42 years now. I got money to make and top notch racing to enjoy. In these times, that’s good enough.