Santa Anita Derby PPs

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

really wonder how much authentic was affected for being left in the gate, breaking sideways and racing wide early.

Some people didn't like Authentic's race, but I thought he ran well. It's not easy break awkwardly, be rushed a little 3 wide into the pace, and stay hung out there the whole way. Despite that, he ran the same Beyer (98) he did in his prior start. If you can knock him, you might say he didn't finish like a 10F horse for the Derby. But just because he "may" not turn out to be as good a 10F horse as some of the others or as Honor AP, doesn't mean he's not a good horse.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Some people didn't like Authentic's race, but I thought he ran well. It's not easy break awkwardly, be rushed a little 3 wide into the pace, and stay hung out there the whole way. Despite that, he ran the same Beyer (98) he did in his prior start. If you can knock him, you might say he didn't finish like a 10F horse for the Derby. But just because he "may" not turn out to be as good a 10F horse as some of the others or as Honor AP, doesn't mean he's not a good horse.

We have this mentality that a loss is a dagger and an indictment. Its interesting how differently they look at in europe where ground and trip easily provide excuses for runs and in no way sends horses off to the "not all that" bin.

I suspect that 9f and beyond is probably beyond his best distance, as I think it is for Improbable, but when they are facing lesser horses they certainly can win at those distance or be grade 1 types at their preferred distance.

Authentic is a very nice horse.

[Robert Fischer]

Authentic ran fine. Had some adversity in his trip.
Layed over that field, w/ exception of the winner.

Deep on the backstretch, was patiently handled, but didn't have the electricity.

Wins that race, if Honor A.P. hadn't fired.

[cj]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

We have this mentality that a loss is a dagger and an indictment. Its interesting how differently they look at in europe where ground and trip easily provide excuses for runs and in no way sends horses off to the "not all that" bin.

I suspect that 9f and beyond is probably beyond his best distance, as I think it is for Improbable, but when they are facing lesser horses they certainly can win at those distance or be grade 1 types at their preferred distance.

Authentic is a very nice horse.

This is a very good post. I'd love to pin down when losing a race became so taboo. Even Cigar eventually lost a few and nobody thought less of him for it. But somewhere between then and now, losing has become something to be avoided at all costs. Some really great horses may have run best in defeat, like Seattle Slew and Zenyatta.

Hell, just last week people were retiring Got Stormy because she didn't run particularly great a race after being beaten a nose against males in a G1. I don't get it and it is not good for the sport.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Some people didn't like Authentic's race, but I thought he ran well. It's not easy break awkwardly, be rushed a little 3 wide into the pace, and stay hung out there the whole way. Despite that, he ran the same Beyer (98) he did in his prior start. If you can knock him, you might say he didn't finish like a 10F horse for the Derby. But just because he "may" not turn out to be as good a 10F horse as some of the others or as Honor AP, doesn't mean he's not a good horse.

The most disconcerting thing about Authentic (beyond likely distance limitations) is his trainer's failure to get the horse to mature. Baffert has had over 6 months to get this colt to perform professionally and either he has been ignoring the obvious or simply can't figure the horse out.

Although much has been made of his awkward start yesterday, the reality is the horse has broken poorly in 3 of his 4 starts. He missed the break in his debut last November, bobbled at the start of the San Felipe, and now went sideways in the SA Derby. The only time he broke running (in the Sham), the horse ran off and was nearly uncontrollable rounding the first turn. Later in the stretch he tried to prop more than once and probably was an awkward stride or two away from dumping his rider.

Arguably, his start in the San Felipe was much worse than yesterday but nonetheless he recovered quickly (as he did yesterday) and was allowed to grab an uncontested lead. Rounding the first turn, he nearly ran off again but was well held by his rider. Honor A.P. might have got him that day, too, if he had managed to get a prep race in beforehand and if there was any kind of pace rival(s) as there were yesterday.

On top of all that, Authentic had a conspicuous gap in activity (30 days without working between late March and April despite two strong works after the San Felipe) that Baffert claimed was simply due to the COVID hiatus. Not sure if that's the full story given the subsequent outcomes for his other two top colts.

Long story short, I wouldn't call Authentic failing to overcome pace pressure and an awkward break viable excuses for failing to win the Santa Anita Derby. He clearly has talent but has not put it all together. His so-called quirks are starting to look like fundamental flaws. Unless they plan on staying in CA to run against more 5-horse, Grade 3 caliber fields or pulling the plug and starting from scratch later in the year, he seems like a sitting duck going forward.

[GMB@BP]

Certainly with 3yo's there also could be those that were never that good, maybe they were just ahead of their age group, and got very good setups, so they went to the head of the class.

I feel like Authentic is ok after his last two races. Around a mile he will probably bounce around the G2/G3 level and win races.

[classhandicapper]

Spalding No,

I don't disagree with anything you are saying.

I just don't think finishing 2nd in the SA Derby to a horse that could wind up being the leader of the division before it's all over is something to be overly upset about or to call a poor performance (like some on Twitter were doing), especially when he didn't get an ideal trip for his style.

He's a horse with some issues to work out that will wind up wherever his development takes him. If I had to guess, I think he'll eventually figure it out and become a very good miler.

Despite the issues, I sure wish I owned him.