2019-2020 HONG KONG

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

UPDATE:
R#9- 1200M C3 (6F)T….…….. 4-7-9 W/ 10-8-2………..…5:15 AM

7-9-8-12– Dutch WIN 22% Profit Margin – Passed / $130.00 Quinella & $991.40 Triple Bx

[Nitro]

UPDATE:
R#10-1400M C3 (7F)T….….… 1-8-13 W/ 6-14-2….……5:50 AM

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

UPDATE:
R#10-1400M C3 (7F)T….….… 1-8-13 W/ 6-14-2….……5:50 AM

9-1-14-13– Dutch Loss 47% Profit Margin -Passed / No action on the LS Winner #9

It turned out to be a good race card with some nice results. The limited Dutch Win bets produced a healthy 65% O.A. Profit margin hitting 1 of 1 race. There were also many nice Verticals as well !

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

1-3-4-5– Dutch Win 0% Profit Margin – Passed / $16.50 Quinella & $144.80 Triple Bx

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/thoroughbred-racing/beauty-generation-brushes-off-younger-rivals-in-chairmans-trophy/

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Jockey Club at Happy Valley. April 8, 2020… 60th race meeting of the 2019-2020 year.
Weather report: 65 degrees Partly cloudy 20% of rain Wind: ENE 5 to 10mph.

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20200408_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://thoroughbrednews.com.au/news/story/live-streaming-of-hong-kongs-meetings-116841?section=livestreaming

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 4 Simply Fluke (9-5) Drew in with the 12 post with the short run to the crooked turn going 6 on the backside, also has started to show a tendency to not want to past the front runner in the stretch, he’ll be there at the finish but going to play he continues that issue.

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
None

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 6 Allied Agility (4-1)

Horses for courses running tonight:
Race 6 Very Sweet Orange (7-2)
Race 8 This Is Class (7-1)

Distance specialists running tonight:
Race 8 Moment Of Power (27-1)

Class specialists running tonight:
None

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 3 Harmony N Home (5-1) Was coming off the Vets' list when Purton who rode him in his last was concerned with his action, was bumped coming out of the gate losing 2L, proceeded to race in the rear then moved to the middle of the track in the stretch and was really moving at the wire while just missing out against the high weight runner who will be racing in Class 3 next time out.

Race 4 Amazing (9-2) Was 1 for 22 in Hong Kong heading into the race and broke from gate 12, leaped out of the gate losing 4L, ran well afterwards while in on the rail.

Past watch list runners running tonight:
Race 1 Fantastic Boy (6-1)

Key Play:
Race 2 Let’s Take It Easy (2-1)

Longshot:
Race 1 Flame Lily (19-1)
Race 6 4 Be Ready (10-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Jockey Club at Sha Tin. April 26, 2020… 65th race meeting of the 2019-2020 year.

Weather report: 77 Degrees Partly Cloudy 0% of rain Wind: NW 4 mph.

Post time: 12.45 am ET, 9.45 pm PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20200426_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
https://www.thoroughbrednews.com.au/news/livestreaming

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 3 Good Luck Friend (9-5) Second time out and picked up Purton, fought for the early lead with two others that eventually stopped badly while on the rail, drew clear at the top of the stretch and didn't allow the slight favourite to get close enough to him to seriously challenge for the win and was helped when that one began to tire and then switched off his proper lead with 140 metres to go, picked up 8 points so he'll get to go at Class 4 again. Drew in here with the 12th post with the short run to the turn going 6 furlongs and an 8 extra pounds,

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 9 Styling City (50-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 6 Fantastic Show (7-1)
Race 9 Computer Patch (5-2)
Race 10 Preciousship (4-1)

Horses for courses running tonight:
Race 6 Wellington (4-5)
Race 10 Band Of Brothers (17-1)

Distance specialists running tonight:
Race 9 Country Star (12-1)
Race 9 Shining Ace (9-1)
Race 10 Preciousship (4-1)

Class specialists running tonight:
None

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 3 Judy's Star (4-1) Was bet down as the 7-5 favourite after big close in his previous at 16-1 while finishing second a half-length back to Ping Hai Bravo who has since come back and won at Class 3. At the start he reared and was left back by at least 7 lengths, finally came into the picture with 750 metres to run, Shinn did the right thing and kept him on the rail for the stretch run instead of swinging him out to the middle of the track. He finished well in the stretch being beaten by a longshot who closed in the middle of the track, has since come back in a barrier trial and broke well from the gate. The main concern with him is that he is starting to look like he would prefer to run second than pass the leading runner in the stretch and is teaming up again with a very poor rider.

Race 4 Cheerful Leader (2-1) Won for fun in his previous in Class 4 after being bumped at the start, picked up 6 rating points which moved him up to Class 3 for the first time, but drew an outside post but was still bet down as the 5-2 crowd choice with leading rider Moreira staying on board. Broke well and was settled in the third flight while Moreira spending most of his time trying to find a hole closer to the rail, unfortunately he was unable to do so and was three wide in the turn without any cover. Was 5 wide entering the stretch while moving to the front runners with 450 metres to the wire, quickly drew clear and looked like the winner at the 300 mark, but 50 metres later started to drift in when Moreira struck him on his left side. At the 140 metre mark his succumbed to his tiredness and switched off his proper lead and gave up the lead at the 50 mark to the second betting choice Lakeshore Eagle in his third win in Class 3.

Race 5 Aethero (6-5) After running third a beaten neck to the now 4 time GI winner Beat The Clock he showed a fever the next morning and was taken off the track for four months. Was bet down as the 4-5 betting favourite, was a step slow from the gate and then was forced to be taken up when the two runners on both sides of him came together taking him out of his preferred running style near the front. He then dragged Purton on the backside to get a little closer but became rank when he was running behind the pace setters, then at the 850 metre mark (entering the turn) he had to grabbed by Purton when he got in tight, then fought the rider again for the next 150 metres. At the top of the stretch was bumped a couple times by Thanks forever when his rider was trying to herd him behind one of the pace setters, after all that there was nothing left when Purton asked for a run at the 300 metre mark, and was wrapped up on when Zac came to the conclusion there was nothing in there.

Race 8 Glorious Dragon (4-1) Was dropping from a GI to Class 2 where he's 2 for 2 at, and picked up Ryan Moore for the ride too. Raced mid-pack, then was blocked entering the stretch and then had to be taken up with 250 left to go and still closed on the leaders nearing the wire just missing on a head bob. He picked up 3 rating points moving him up to 99 which will allow him to run at Class 2 again. Millard has decided to skip Class 2 for Grade I again and drew in a race with very little pace and would be stunned if he can get up against Exultant and Time Warp.

Past watch list runners running tonight:
None

Key Plays:
Race 4 Cheerful Leader (2-1)
Race 10 Butterfield (5-1)

Longshot:
Race 9 Shining Ace (9-1)

[Nitro]

Good Luck this morning Woody!

I had a feeling you might be posting for this BIG race card.

[jay68802]

Hang with you guys tonight?

Thanks.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyyhm1D7zlI

[Nitro]

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!

On this Special morning I’m posting my pre-race selections for another quality & very competitive race card that looks to offer some decent value.
There are 10 races at Sha Tin with all 10 races on Turf:
(Class top to bottom) - (3)-Class-GR1 STK, (2)-Class-2, (3)-Class-3, (2)-Class-4,

Post Time Race #1 – 12:45 AM SUN EST

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.

The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores. A few of the races this morning look wide open!

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

For those of you that have the resources to bet more than $2 per race you might want to consider the following in terms of betting:
1) Win Dutching 3 entries means betting each of the 3 entries so that no matter which one wins the return is the same. (Recommend waiting until 4 mins to post for final odds calculations).
2) For Quinellas there are many options:
a) Using all 3 of the top Keys with all the others = 12 bets
b) Boxing all 6 selections = 15 bets
3) Triples there also many options:
a) Using any Key in the top position w/All others = 20 bets
b) Using all 3 Keys in the top position w/All others = 60 bets
c) Using Top 4 selections in the top position w/All others = 80 bets
d) Boxing all 6 selections = 120 bets
(Warning: The odds of the selected entries @ 7 mins to post should determine playability by comparing the combined value of each group of 3 that may complete the triple with the amount to be bet).
Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1-1400M C4 (7F)T….…..…12-1-3 W/ 8-6-10…….…….12:45 AM

R#2-1200M C3 (6F)T……..….2-9-6 W/ 11-12-1……………..1:15 AM

R#3–1200M C4 (6F)T……..….1-11-6 W/ 4-8-10….…………1:45 AM

R#4- 1600M C3 (8F)T……..…13-4-10 W/ 6-11-3 …………2:15 AM

R#5- 1200M GR1 (6F)T….…..1-11-7W/ 6-5-3 ………………2:50 AM

R#6- 1400M C3 (7F)T….…..….1-3-10 W/ 13-6-2……….…3:25 AM

R#7– 1600M GR1 (8F)T…..…1-2-3 W/ 6-5 …………………....4:00 AM

R#8- 2000M GR1 (10F)T…...1-2-4 W/ 3-6………….….…...…4.40 AM

R#9- 1200M C2 (6F)T….……. 4-7-6 W/ 10-1-11………..…5:15 AM

R#10-1600M C2 (8F)T…..…. 13-1-3 W/ 4-7-10….……..…5:50 AM
.
.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Hang with you guys tonight?

Thanks.

Morning Jay! The more the merrier!
Let's make some money!
GL

[jay68802]

?

[jay68802]

Don't mind the music.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hIaS_vYIQ_A

[woodbinepmi]

Here are my notes that I have on a few in the first from their last race:

#1 Chairman Lo Has shown a dislike for passing the front runners near the wire and it's his second race after an extended rest, raced mid-pack 2ET 3T 6E tried to make a run to the lead but wasn't fast enough to chase down the heavy favourite who had a perfect trip... 95

#3 Charge On Drew in with the 13 gate with the hood coming off and replacing it with blinkers, raced in the rear while the high weight was setting the pace, moved to the 7 path entering the stretch and passed the entire field in the stretch while racing in the middle of the track, just got up in the last few metres while racing the last 150 on his wrong lead... 96

#13 City Legend Is 0-25 lifetime and all of them in this class level, does have 8 seconds though and is moving down to the rail, raced mid-pack while chasing the lone speed winner on the rail, closed on him in the stretch but never got close enough to put any kind of pressure on him... -93

[Nitro]

UPDATE:
R#1-1400M C4 (7F)T….…..…12-3-1 W/ 10-4-8…….…….12:45 AM

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

UPDATE:
R#1-1400M C4 (7F)T….…..…12-3-1 W/ 10-4-8…….…….12:45 AM

1-14-4-12– Dutch Win 84% Profit Margin – Played / No action on the LS Winner #14