What have you learned lately?

[Robert Fischer]

I've been trying to fully develop my video review of replays. Seeking out the knowledge. Going through the basic processes, rather than free-forming everything, and really trying to have a strength where in the past I've had some success but haven't been focused and organized. This carries over into the watch-list, as your video review will be what supplies you with horses who have run exceptional races.


hmmm... what else??
I've kind of gravitated into pick3's from doubles and exactas. This hasn't been intentional, and the doubles and exactas fit my bankroll better at this point. On the bright side, developed some confidence in the pick3 for the times when it is appropriate.

[dartman51]

Originally Posted by CBedo

What have you learned recently (or had forgotten and recently had it reintroduced) that has helped improve your handicapping and your results?

I am constantly evolving (and sometimes devolving) as a handicapper, and am always learning (lots from you guys and gals here at PA) or trying to learn. I was thinking tonight about things I've come up with lately.

One thing I've learned lately is that jockeys suck! That's a bit of an overstatement, but not a total exaggeration.

THE BEFORE: Having for the most part emphasized So Cal and NY in the past, for the most part, the jockeys are all pretty competent (or they don't make it there). Maybe because of that, I have long been of the opinion that for the most part, the jockey didn't matter. They were mainly passengers along for the ride, just guiding their mounts to the right spots.

WHAT'S CHANGED: As I have gotten more engrossed in developing models to play large numbers of tracks, I have begun to watch some much smaller tracks with some not so hall of fame jockeys. I have seen some horrendous rides (some on my horse, some not). I've seen jockeys on the seemingly clearly the best horse decide he needs to pace duel with a hopeless 50/1 shot. I've seen jockeys use just enough horse coming out of the gate to park their mounts 5 wide going into the turn. I've seen natural front running athletes being strangled back "to save energy."

THE LESSON: I still do not upgrade horses based on having a good jockey, but I have learned (or relearned) that a terrible jockey can most definitely hurt the chances of my horse, and I have to pay more attention to that factor.

WHAT HAVE YOU LEARNED LATELY?

There is 1 FACT with JOCKEYS. A good jockey CAN'T make a BAD horse win, BUT a BAD jockey CAN make a GOOD horse lose.

[andicap]

Not to get on the bad side of Slewis.

[Steven Kolb]

To make millions, baseball players DREAM of hitting .350
'
If a horseplayer hits that... he's broke
'
sk

[LottaKash]

Originally Posted by Steven Kolb

To make millions, baseball players DREAM of hitting .350
'
If a horseplayer hits that... he's broke
'
sk

SK, I don't know about that...With a 35% hit rate, if you get the right prices, you can make a ton of money....

best,

[brdman12]

I have learned that although ( for me) pace, speed, form, trainer, jockey are important, that I have been underestimating the value of class.

[jayfree41]

yes if you win 35% of your bets you are definitely profitable.

I find that when I am batting .220 or higher I am in the black.

as far as my lessons of late:

1. It's important to take breaks from handicapping. I am currently on a two week break. Last time I took a break - I came back and nailed two 100k pick 6 payoffs in a week.

2. The Arlington poly track is very very hard to read...hence the consistent pick 6 carryovers.

3. Norberto Arroyo at Belmont is a stud. Check out his R.O.I. this year!!! Astronomical.

[LottaKash]

Originally Posted by jayfree41

yes if you win 35% of your bets you are definitely profitable.

I find that when I am batting .220 or higher I am in the black.

as far as my lessons of late:

1. It's important to take breaks from handicapping. I am currently on a two week break. Last time I took a break - I came back and nailed two 100k pick 6 payoffs in a week.


.

Where did you say you live ???.....

best,

[CBedo]

Originally Posted by Steven Kolb

To make millions, baseball players DREAM of hitting .350
'
If a horseplayer hits that... he's broke
'
sk

If you aren't making money at 35%, then I don't know what to tell you.

[formula_2002]

Not so lately .

your Actual winners / public's Expected winners = roi

(1/(Sum 1/(odds+1)))-1= track take out

Study results based on incremental odds analysis.
The smaller the increment and the greater the amount of data, the more predictable and usefull the results.

Keep this chart in mind (and do the work to understand it);
http://www.jcapper.com/messageboard/...&forum=General

Accepting your handicapping powers, makes horse race betting an easy game.

[ryesteve]

Originally Posted by CBedo

If you aren't making money at 35%, then I don't know what to tell you.

I would tell him "stop betting even money shots"

[jayfree41]

I live in Seattle - not a handicapping mecca. But there are horse race lovers - out here.

[Steven Kolb]

HOWEVER >>>>

Re: 35% winners...say at 5-2 avg. and you need to win $300/day to pay your living expenses/bills - 5 days a week. That's earning roughly $75,000/yr.
_________
Properly handicapping 25 races (w/ video & all) to find 10 to wager on - - betting $200 per race creates a $500 profit each win X 3.5 wins = $1,750 in winnings, then minus your loses of $1,300 = a $450 profit for the day.
_________
$450 - taxes (wiggle room here) and expenses = $370 net for the day! Yes!!! (I guess)... but you're doing little more than paying your bills!

The negative is that it's more than a twelve hour day - all by yourself. No fun.
If you hit a winning streak - awesome! If you hit a long losing streak - - ouchie / oochie / eachie crappola!
_________
Pick no winners 12 consecutive days and your down $24,000 !! ouch!
_________
You'd probably need a bankroll of at least $80K - double that would be better - and you are running a very high risk business.
_________
IT'S NOT FOR ME!
_________

sk

[CBedo]

Originally Posted by Steven Kolb

HOWEVER >>>>

Re: 35% winners...say at 5-2 avg. and you need to win $300/day to pay your living expenses/bills - 5 days a week. That's earning roughly $75,000/yr.
_________
Properly handicapping 25 races (w/ video & all) to find 10 to wager on - - betting $200 per race creates a $500 profit each win X 3.5 wins = $1,750 in winnings, then minus your loses of $1,300 = a $450 profit for the day.
_________
$450 - taxes (wiggle room here) and expenses = $370 net for the day! Yes!!! (I guess)... but you're doing little more than paying your bills!

The negative is that it's more than a twelve hour day - all by yourself. No fun.
If you hit a winning streak - awesome! If you hit a long losing streak - - ouchie / oochie / eachie crappola!
_________
Pick no winners 12 consecutive days and your down $24,000 !! ouch!
_________
You'd probably need a bankroll of at least $80K - double that would be better - and you are running a very high risk business.
_________
IT'S NOT FOR ME!
_________

sk

1) If you really are a 35% handicapper, the odds of missing 10 in a row (your 10 per day) is 1.3%ish; the odds of doing that 12 days in a row is basically 0.

2) $80,000 bankroll for $200 a bet? This is overkill on safety big time.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Lately that East Coast is being more consistent with my type bets (lowest 2 odds- situational).