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Old 06-02-2020, 12:31 PM   #16
Secondbest
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Originally Posted by CheckMark View Post
Can you elaborate on this please?
See Mhaney’s posts in the Valuecapper thread.
In one post he shows his wagers. 29 bets 10% winners or 3 winners 26 losers.
And he made money. That’s what counts.

Last edited by Secondbest; 06-02-2020 at 12:35 PM. Reason: Adding something
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Old 06-02-2020, 12:37 PM   #17
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You forgot how old you are?
It was past my bedtime lol

Jk just a typo
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Old 06-02-2020, 12:39 PM   #18
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I'm going to add one more thing. Tools are great, and each person should figure out what fits his or her style. But that is a small part of the game. The vast majority of people are going to lose. It is a game that takes about 20% off the top. Overcoming that is not something many are going to do.

You can read all the chess books in the world, it won't make you a grandmaster. You gotta play the game with real money to get to the next level.
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Old 06-02-2020, 01:00 PM   #19
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1. You are in a good spot. Keep reading this board and you'll pick up some good ideas.

2. Keep records and notes. Reviewing PPs after the day's races with your bets/selections against the Charts is very valuable, IMO. It first will tell you how good you are at selecting contenders. Then it can also you clue you in on valuable data by trying to figure out how you could include the horse that hit the board but wasn't on your contender list.

3. I've gotten to the point, I ignore Prime Power until reviewing PPs the day after. I use them as a guide to judge how well I'm selecting contenders.

All the data points from Bris PPs are useful. I typically start with trying to figure out how the race will look at 2nd call. Then go through the exercise of which horse benefits etc.

4. Specialize is a good idea. Either by type of race, track or bet. This goes along with keeping records. What bets are you good at? Then you can mold your contender selection towards that.

At the end of the day everyone has similar information. You are basically trying to smash several data points together in a useful way to find contenders that don't figure to the majority. (Point being there isn't a magic bullet data point on the PPs and the more unique you develop your style of handicapping the better it will be)

With favorites ITM nearing 40% it's clear the game has gotten tougher.

Last edited by AMPHAR; 06-02-2020 at 01:04 PM.
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Old 06-02-2020, 01:03 PM   #20
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It isn't about which horse is going to win, it is about which horses are good bets. Figures those out and you'll get enough winners to make a profit.
CJ is correct. Its about finding which horse or horses offer value in relationship to their chance of winning. For this you are going to need an oddsline that is reasonably accurate. First you need to look at that oddsline and the pps and determine which horse/s is underbet in relationship to its chance of winning (your odds). So if I have a horse at 5-1 on my oddsline and I think he has a chance to win, then I am looking to get at least a 50% overlay in the case of a 5-1 Id want 8-1 (always round up). If you have a decent oddsline and you have a good sense of contenders then you should be able to come out ahead in the long run because you are betting overlays (value). The key is to handicap value not horses, and the public is smart, there is not value in more than about 10% of races. Doing this, you are going to have a low win %, mine is generally 7-9%, but I still come out profitable in the long run.

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Old 06-02-2020, 01:22 PM   #21
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You forgot how old you are?
That might explain the PP confusion!

Just kidding CM.....try using them as PPS and just handicap the race.
The stuff on the summary is never going to be profitable because it is never going to really reflect the race.

I can't find the PPs right now, but it was Tampa Bay recently.
The winner, at 2-1, didn't show up very good in the summaries.

IT was a dirt sprint and his last 4 races were all turf sprints.
He showed good early speed but could not finish very good.
His Current Class Rating was "-----: none given.

The TOP Current Class horse was 115.9
If you used the last 3 DIRT sprints for the winner, the ratings were 117-116-116.

His SR was top in the field. His early pace was by far the best.

The summary page gives you best, average, yadda yadda yadda....nothing reality to today's race.

Go through the PPS and draw a line through any race NOT the same structure as today.

If today is a dirt sprint, 6 furlongs, get rid of the grass races, the route races, maybe the sloppy tracks race....NOW look at the key ratings.

I'll find that race and post it later - it is a perfect example, and I thought 2-1 was a good price for a horse how dominated on pace in recent usable races.

I went through tons of BRIS summary sheets last year, trying to find out what wins. Nothing did.

BUT, the one factor I did find was the Avg Speed Column (Rcg Spd Avg) The winner was in the top 4 over 80% of the time.
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Old 06-02-2020, 01:43 PM   #22
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You actually do have a winning system, at least from what I saw.

When you first started posting and you had that long shot at Fonner that everyone congratulated you for, you had something there. Your subsequent plays did not necessarily win but they did hit the board. I was surprised when you switched it up and went to using different criteria because none of your picks were out of the money.

So what I am saying is try going back to your original system and either betting to show or doing show parlays. So many horse players marginalize show betting but a good show player can beat 90% of win players.

The advantage to show betting is that you will always have those bombs that elude you and beat your horse. Or other horses will beat your horse that are not bombs but you don't like. It will take a psychological toll on your mindset and emotions and affect your play negatively. Show betting is much easier on the psyche.

As far as making money from show betting, one time I played 10 show bets in a row and they all hit. Like you, I found only 1 or 2 plays per day that were solid. I know you have that ability. What was startling is that if I had started a $5 show parlay bet with those 10 plays, after the 10th play it would have grown to $40K! Who needs the Pk6. But it takes discipline.
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Old 06-02-2020, 02:40 PM   #23
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I have been playing around with the pp’s and also the Ultimate race summary but no luck on finding something working for me. Tried ACL, tried early speed points, tried most positive factors, tried best prime power, tried combined factors for Ultimate summary, tried best late horse, tried Trainer stats and none of that sadly worked for me.
You are looking for a magic bullet, and there is no such thing. A horse race is an interaction between a number of horses. A race with a lot of early speed horses is going to run differently than a race with average early speed and some strong closers. Those races are going to be determined by different factors. You need to be able to analyze the field, determine how the race will likely be run, and determine which horses will be helped or hurt by that. A factor that is golden in one type of race may be a bomb in a different type.
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Old 06-02-2020, 02:43 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by Light View Post
Check

You actually do have a winning system, at least from what I saw.

When you first started posting and you had that long shot at Fonner that everyone congratulated you for, you had something there. Your subsequent plays did not necessarily win but they did hit the board. I was surprised when you switched it up and went to using different criteria because none of your picks were out of the money.

So what I am saying is try going back to your original system and either betting to show or doing show parlays. So many horse players marginalize show betting but a good show player can beat 90% of win players.

The advantage to show betting is that you will always have those bombs that elude you and beat your horse. Or other horses will beat your horse that are not bombs but you don't like. It will take a psychological toll on your mindset and emotions and affect your play negatively. Show betting is much easier on the psyche.

As far as making money from show betting, one time I played 10 show bets in a row and they all hit. Like you, I found only 1 or 2 plays per day that were solid. I know you have that ability. What was startling is that if I had started a $5 show parlay bet with those 10 plays, after the 10th play it would have grown to $40K! Who needs the Pk6. But it takes discipline.
Yea I was thinking that going crawling into bed last night but I need to find the system that I wrote down
Thank you Light and everyone else's comments! PACE ADVANTAGE IS THE BEST!
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Old 06-02-2020, 03:57 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by mhaney0423 View Post
CJ is correct. Its about finding which horse or horses offer value in relationship to their chance of winning. For this you are going to need an oddsline that is reasonably accurate. First you need to look at that oddsline and the pps and determine which horse/s is underbet in relationship to its chance of winning (your odds). So if I have a horse at 5-1 on my oddsline and I think he has a chance to win, then I am looking to get at least a 50% overlay in the case of a 5-1 Id want 8-1 (always round up). If you have a decent oddsline and you have a good sense of contenders then you should be able to come out ahead in the long run because you are betting overlays (value). The key is to handicap value not horses, and the public is smart, there is not value in more than about 10% of races. Doing this, you are going to have a low win %, mine is generally 7-9%, but I still come out profitable in the long run.

Best,

Matt
I have to push back against this as it's the exact opposite of what one should do today.

Go to any casino, OTB and you'll see the same thing, people reading the form trying to find a winner. If you follow the same process as 95% of the bettors and end up with a horse that is 'value' on your oddsline. Who is wrong? My opinion is that there is information that isn't exactly clear on the PP's and that 'valuebet' is actually a 'sucker bet'.

I always use the analogy if I offered to sell you a Ferrari for 10 bucks your first response shouldn't be 'that's an awesome deal' but rather 'what's wrong with it'.
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Old 06-02-2020, 04:18 PM   #26
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I have to push back against this as it's the exact opposite of what one should do today.

Go to any casino, OTB and you'll see the same thing, people reading the form trying to find a winner. If you follow the same process as 95% of the bettors and end up with a horse that is 'value' on your oddsline. Who is wrong? My opinion is that there is information that isn't exactly clear on the PP's and that 'valuebet' is actually a 'sucker bet'.

I always use the analogy if I offered to sell you a Ferrari for 10 bucks your first response shouldn't be 'that's an awesome deal' but rather 'what's wrong with it'.
Sorry, Id have to say this is wrong, a value bet is not a horse that I think should be 30-1 going off at 50-1, it is generally a horse that I think should be 3-1 or 5-1 going off at 10-1 combined with some kind of antivalue on the favorite, such as negative class drop, layoff, hard last race etc,etc.
I basically heard this same analogy on the Valuecapper thread, and I think maybe I disproved it. Everyone has their own way of handicapping, and if its successful, that is all that matters. But I assure you a true Value bet is not a sucker bet. Im not correct as often as the public or the 95% of handicappers, but I am correct often enough to have a positive ROI.

Best,

M
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Old 06-02-2020, 04:34 PM   #27
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Sorry, Id have to say this is wrong, a value bet is not a horse that I think should be 30-1 going off at 50-1, it is generally a horse that I think should be 3-1 or 5-1 going off at 10-1 combined with some kind of antivalue on the favorite, such as negative class drop, layoff, hard last race etc,etc.
I basically heard this same analogy on the Valuecapper thread, and I think maybe I disproved it. Everyone has their own way of handicapping, and if its successful, that is all that matters. But I assure you a true Value bet is not a sucker bet. Im not correct as often as the public or the 95% of handicappers, but I am correct often enough to have a positive ROI.

Best,

M
Sounds like a professional lotto player.
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Old 06-02-2020, 04:58 PM   #28
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Sounds like a professional lotto player.
Yes that's exactly what it is, normally I just draw numbers from a hat and bet them.


Sometimes I don't even look at the odds, you got me, I have no idea what I'm doing. Which is OK because I enjoy doing it.
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Old 06-02-2020, 05:07 PM   #29
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Sounds like a professional lotto player.
You will be happy to know I updated my user profile to show this, I like the sound of it
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Old 06-02-2020, 06:23 PM   #30
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I saw your work on MikeSal's thread, Mr. Haney. No need to explain yourself--any horse player that ignores "value", is very likely not a winner.
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