Whitney Aug 3rd Saratoga....Who beats.....

[RXB]

I won't be betting this race but it's certainly a very interesting affair and a talented field. Purely from a sporting perspective it's one of the most interesting races of the year to-date.

Fort Larned - He's a nice horse although his best final time numbers were earned loose on the lead last out and gate-to-wire on a speed favouring surface in the BC Classic. He won this race last year rating in third early but Cross Traffic is a faster and classier animal than the two sub-G1 horses that Fort Larned blew past on the turn last year. Still deserves top billing.

Ron The Greek - He can pick up the pieces late. But he's never got up for the win over genuine horses. Good chance to hit the exotics but I don't love him for the top spot.

Alpha - Ability question, form question, but he loves Saratoga and he did smack the gate open before his last race which usually is a death knell for a horse's win chances. Rosario sees fit to ride. Upset possibility.

Mucho Macho Man - Was it just the off tracks that have thrown him off form? Maybe, but the appearance of front wraps for his two subpar efforts and a five-month layoff between them makes me wonder if this guy's best days are gone. He certainly has the proven past ability, though. Dicey. Could finish anywhere from first to last.

Cross Traffic - Fast, talented miler but I don't foresee him enjoying the extra furlong, especially since Fort Larned figures to hound him-- very different from getting a clear lead with the unremarkable Handsome Mike as the closest pursuer in the Met. I'd toss this horse from the exactas at a short price. He does figure to make Fort Larned's task tougher.

Successful Dan - Has some running style versatility and he did win over Fort Larned and Mucho Macho Man once last year. But backing a 7YO to win its first G1 is generally a bad idea. Don't be fooled by the trouble line in the Foster; it only cost him a couple of lengths, he would've been soundly trounced regardless.

Fast Falcon - Can run some late but this guy is win-shy and hasn't proven himself at this level of competition. More likely for a piece than on top. ONe plus is that he's bred to improve with maturity.

Czaba - Not a G1 horse and not in top form. My only unconditional toss.

[RXB]

After looking at it again I'm downgrading Alpha. He's really not shown that he can handle this class of competition, whether he likes Saratoga or not. He was allowed to jog in a soft Jim Dandy, the Travers was weak compared to normal and his most recent G1/G2 efforts have not shown any real promise.

[iceknight]

Originally Posted by iceknight

Successful Dan is definitely not a 12-1 horse.. I will surely take a shot at that or even at 5-1. Ron the Greek is another one who is worth taking a look at but he usually gets whooped by Fort Larned so I am not sure how much to hope..

Of course Pletcher is one fire so Cross Traffic (by Unbridled's song) -a tenacious fighter is bound to get bet down.

with , , exacta

with , , exacta

Additional thoughts.

Mucho Macho man has not really beaten any worthy candidates in graded events.. Also Alpha.. I feel like he has not beaten any older horses at all..
Fort Larned is definitely the one to beat, but I feel like Successful Dan can do something big today

[CincyHorseplayer]

Damnit I hate when I gets bhsted out period but busted out in the first leg of the Pick-4 sucks!

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

This looks like too tough of a betting race for me. I pretty much like the chalk in order.

Fort Larned appears to be the best. I don't know If we should expect a huge performance, but obviously on his day he's a Grade I horse.

Cross Traffic is the biggest upset threat. Unfortunately he's 2nd choice. Was best overall in the Met, in a performance that combined a high-level ability with some faults. Those faults could be enough for Fort Larned to gain a couple of advantages today, but then again he could correct them at the stretch-out in distance.


Ron The Greek - Professional should run his race and be in position should he be handed any great opportunity.

9/2 is a pretty good price on Cross Traffic.

Fort Larned may set a fast pace, and Cross Traffic has a chance to out-game him. The key will be entering the stretch better than he has been in the past. It may help to have FL as a target and to be hard urged entering to his outside.

[Tom]

Dan looks good in here - tactical speed, won't be too far to strike late
Alpha has been working nicely for this, a HFC we know he like the waters
Fort Larned - the one to beat

[Robert Fischer]

too much uncertainty to bet here.

should be a good race to watch.

[Tom]

Dan just fell in the walk to the track....not good.
I fell down in that same spot last year, but I was coming back from the track bar.

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by Tom

Dan just fell in the walk to the track....not good.
I fell down in that same spot last year, but I was coming back from the track bar.

He reared up and flipped, just as the announcers were talking about him being too quiet in the paddock.

[brdman12]

I like the odds on Cross Traffic, but they are going down..lol..5 minutes to post..tri..4/235

[Track Collector]

Zero minutes to post.

My play in on .

[Tom]

Dan looked like he ran farther sideways than forward.

[TheEdge07]

Originally Posted by TheEdge07

Wouldnt touch Cross Traffic with a ten ft pole..

If MMM is 7/1 higher ill buy and use underneath exactas..

Classic..time to eat the crow

3 straight hard races game horse..

[iceknight]

Originally Posted by Tom

Dan looked like he ran farther sideways than forward.

I normally don't blame the jockey ever.. but I think it's time to change bit*ching tactics.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by raybo

I've got Cross Traffic, Fort Larned, and Mucho Macho Man, in that ranking order but haven't decided if the race is worth messing with yet. If so, I will have to have 5/2 or higher for betting.

Those rankings are based on power, form, and total velocity (PFV) at route distances on the dirt. My "Class/Distance" rankings are .

The rankings are all over the place so my thoughts on this race are very tentative.

Ended up with 2 bets at 5/2 or higher;