Tampa Bay Derby 2013

[DeltaLover]

Not a good betting race.

Verrazano looks like a very solid favorite and this type of runners (3 year old, odds on favorite, lightly raced, trying distance for first time) win approximately 54% while all other odds on chalks win only 50%

The crowd will be correct so although he will still lose close to 45% of the time there is no bargain here.

[Jay Trotter]

This could be a very interesting race.....

Mike actually pulled this one from today's P.A.I.H.L. card saying:
I couldn't in good conscience include the Tampa Bay Derby this week, as I had a tough enough time including the San Felipe with its chalky looking outcome. I could not in a million years put the Tampa Bay Derby in there as well, what with 4-5 Verrazano looking in every way a legitimate favorite.

After handicapping this one I can agree that Verrazano is very much the one to beat but certainly no lock. He hasn't really faced anyone of quality and hasn't faced real pressure. I can see Purple Egg and Falling Sky pressing the pace and pushing Verrazano hard for the first time.

I'm going to take a shot with Honorable Dillon (6/1) picking up the pieces.

Triactor / /

[Robert Fischer]

tough race underneath

Honorable Dillon looks like the main threat. I'm not a big fan of him stretching out, but he's in form and has the move into the turn that could help collapse the speeds.

Falling Sky is in a tough spot and basically has to get over and be running free near the front. He still is a classy horse who can run on if the race gets strung out.

Purple Egg figures to fire. He NEEDs points to move on, and the temptation has to be to send him right to the lead inside. I think he finishes closer if he can make more of a middle move than an early move with this competition. Guessing he will be a pace casualty, but won't be shocked if he hits the board either.

Java's War is the wildcard. He may have been better than Dynamic Sky in the Futurity but he didn't flatten - he got flattened and squeezed badly, and fought on gamely. Has one run and needs a conservative trip and a pace set up. Good works.

I think Dynamic Sky is an underlay. He could get buried coming home today.

Eton Blue is an alternative to Dynamic Sky. Price is right. Sits a dream trip today stalking and saving ground. Steady middle-moving plodder to pick up any minor awards should the pace collapse at all.

[PhantomOnTour]

TOSSING:
Purple Egg (working well, but is too slow right now)
Eton Blue (ditto on the too slow)
Offlee Fast (although he looks like the E of the E)

EXOTICS ONLY:
Java's War (working nicely...maybe gets a share)
Park City (should handle the stretchout...the other Pletcher)
Falling Sky (tempted to toss altogether, pace may fry him today, but he's a fighter)

WIN:
Verrazano (duh)
Dynamic Sky (could explode today 3rd off the shelf with Rosario up)
Honorable Dillon (the value and my likely key horse)

Dillon should secure a nice stalking rail trip today, perhaps just inside of Verrazano. I expect Offlee Fast and Falling Sky to make the pace. Espinoza is all but committed to go from the 9 hole and will have to do some runnin as i think OF is kinda quick. Hopefully Verrazano and Dillon can go by them with DySky in pursuit...trying to avoid the chalky 5-6 exacta combo and Dillon is the one to split them for me.
My worries are about Lanerie - good Cajun boy and decent jock - but he is facing some real stud riders and better time his move correctly on the stretchout.
EX: 5-6 w 3
EX: 3 w 5-6-8
WIN: 3

*need the 6-1 ML or better for a bet on Dillon

[Beachbabe]

Watch out for Offlee Fast. I know he doesn't look the part here but Pellegrini is an underrated trainer who's been putting across a slew of longshots at Gulf with speed in routes

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Offlee Fast (although he looks like the E of the E)

You know what? ... Offlee Fast probably has to be respected by longshot players. There is the scenario where Offlee Fast goes out on his own, gets brave, and then the favorite has to wear him down in the stretch.

Capo Bastone isn't a terrible horse, and I know the final time was slow, but I doubt that he regressed badly under Pletcher last time. He seemed to fire pretty well, and had to wear down Offlee Fast. It was an off track and a pace that came back fast.

Maybe I need to re-think my underneath stuff?

Originally Posted by Beachbabe

Watch out for Offlee Fast. I know he doesn't look the part here but Pellegrini is an underrated trainer who's been putting across a slew of longshots at Gulf with speed in routes

EDIT - Beat me to it.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by Beachbabe

Watch out for Offlee Fast. I know he doesn't look the part here but Pellegrini is an underrated trainer who's been putting across a slew of longshots at Gulf with speed in routes

Too bad this race is at Tampa Bay.

[ArlJim78]

I would use Offlee Fast, he may not know that he's not supposed to win this and will probably be hard to keep off the board.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I would use Offlee Fast, he may not know that he's not supposed to win this and will probably be hard to keep off the board.

Horses never know what odds they are. So it's a good thing they don't know how to read the toteboard.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

Horses never know what odds they are. So it's a good thing they don't know how to read the toteboard.

You don't say? Please share more of your insights.

[Tom]

I'm going to take a shot with Honorable Dillon (6/1) picking up the pieces.

Pieces hell, I think he takes the whole enchalada.

[Vinnie]

Really don't like this race, but, will take a chance with a Tri. on keying the

w

Good luck everyone... Would like to see Verranzano in a Romp!

[brdman12]

I like Purple egg here. 23/2356

[DeltaLover]

I will take a chance with the 1: ETON BLUE

[Tee]

Dynamic Sky looked very good in the post parade.

Park City should relish the added distance, at such large odds he's worth a look.