Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 08-13-2017, 03:00 PM   #361
highnote
Registered User
 
highnote's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 9,590
Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC View Post
An analogy better suited for this discussion is a two-sided balance scale. Every race will always balance out to 1 minus the track take. One side of the scale can be loaded up with many or few overlays both large and small and the other side must be loaded up with offsetting underlays to maintain the balance. There is no set amount or overlay pie that restricts how much is in the overlay scale but there must be an offsetting amount of underlays in the second scale.
Agreed
__________________
"Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is an absurd one. -- Voltaire
highnote is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-13-2017, 03:54 PM   #362
Jeff P
Registered User
 
Jeff P's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 2,752
Quote:
Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate View Post
Jeff, your post is well off the mark here, for the following reasons...
I guess we'll see after the meet.

Or a few days into the meet.

In any event, enjoy your (smaller) portion of steak.


-jp

.
__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com
Jeff P is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-13-2017, 06:01 PM   #363
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 39,010
Quote:
Originally Posted by highnote View Post
Yep. I totally agree 100%. That's what I posted earlier about Haggerty's argument about Churchill Downs handle increasing. Without being able see all sources of CD's and Keeneland's handle it is impossible to say why growth is occurring even with higher takeouts. They can feed us any line they want because we have no way of checking the validity of their statements.

Regan said, "Trust, but verify." That's the same as saying don't trust.

So until I can verify why their handles increased I don't trust what they are saying.
Saying they have increased handle is shaky at best. It all depends what year they want to cherry pick at Churchill to make things look better.

cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-13-2017, 06:07 PM   #364
ultracapper
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 2,487
In the 1970s, 80% of the tracks open in the US were built in the 30s. The reason for this huge increase, basically everything outside of NY, KY, and MD, was the need for deposits into state treasuries. The reason the industry even exists was to provide an income stream to the state coffers, an income stream that is today, almost unnoticeable to most states. In the meantime, those tracks, that were opened by opportunistic businessmen, not horsemen, not gamblers, but businessmen, are sitting on real estate, that even in the words of a high level exec in the Stronach Group says, must produce income befitting an asset of that value, and a horse race track ain't even coming close to delivering.

This industry never did, and never will, exist for the gambler. There is no need to "turn on" the younger generation to horse racing because machines, wheels, dice and cards capture all the youth gamblers you could ever hope for, just as in the 40s and 50s the youth were turned on to the only game in town, horseracing. The horsemen will milk this cow dry as long as they can, then sell their farms to the first fast talking developer that comes down the pike. There is not a piece of real estate in the United States withing 100 miles of any mid to large metropolis that is maximizing it's value as a horse racing track.

The next day the state horse racing commission or a horsemen's group of any ABC affiliation shows concern for the gambler, will be the first day in the history of the industry that that concern has been shown. The gamblers didn't matter in 1937, and they matter even less in 2017. The gamblers will gamble, and every entity that realizes income from any kind of gambling game knows it. Nobody cares what they gamble on. They can gamble on whatever they want, as long as those that authorize it get their share. And the game that brings in the most income is the game that the powers that be will support.

That doesn't even address the societal changes and the different way that the horse itself is viewed by the public. in 1937 everybody, I mean everybody, knew somebody that owned a horse. I'd bet at least 25% of the American public today has never touched one, and maybe half of those have never seen one in the flesh.

Until the hard truths of why this industry even exists are accepted, and then the problems addressed from that paradigm, or until there can be a cataclysmic paradigm shift as to why horse racing should exist at all, the majority of ideas and efforts to make horse racing a "gambler friendly" game are nothing more than chasing your tail.
__________________
"Do no unnecessary harm to your bankroll"
-A Horseplayer's Hippocratic Oath

"Science is the father of knowledge. Opinion breeds ignorance"
-Hippocrates

"Successful horse race handicapping is nothing more than the collection, and proper assessment of, PERTINENT FACTS"
-A Successful Horse Race Handicapper
ultracapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-13-2017, 09:40 PM   #365
highnote
Registered User
 
highnote's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 9,590
Quote:
Originally Posted by ultracapper View Post
In the 1970s, 80% of the tracks open in the US were built in the 30s. The reason for this huge increase, basically everything outside of NY, KY, and MD, was the need for deposits into state treasuries. The reason the industry even exists was to provide an income stream to the state coffers, an income stream that is today, almost unnoticeable to most states. In the meantime, those tracks, that were opened by opportunistic businessmen, not horsemen, not gamblers, but businessmen, are sitting on real estate, that even in the words of a high level exec in the Stronach Group says, must produce income befitting an asset of that value, and a horse race track ain't even coming close to delivering.

This industry never did, and never will, exist for the gambler. There is no need to "turn on" the younger generation to horse racing because machines, wheels, dice and cards capture all the youth gamblers you could ever hope for, just as in the 40s and 50s the youth were turned on to the only game in town, horseracing. The horsemen will milk this cow dry as long as they can, then sell their farms to the first fast talking developer that comes down the pike. There is not a piece of real estate in the United States withing 100 miles of any mid to large metropolis that is maximizing it's value as a horse racing track.

The next day the state horse racing commission or a horsemen's group of any ABC affiliation shows concern for the gambler, will be the first day in the history of the industry that that concern has been shown. The gamblers didn't matter in 1937, and they matter even less in 2017. The gamblers will gamble, and every entity that realizes income from any kind of gambling game knows it. Nobody cares what they gamble on. They can gamble on whatever they want, as long as those that authorize it get their share. And the game that brings in the most income is the game that the powers that be will support.

That doesn't even address the societal changes and the different way that the horse itself is viewed by the public. in 1937 everybody, I mean everybody, knew somebody that owned a horse. I'd bet at least 25% of the American public today has never touched one, and maybe half of those have never seen one in the flesh.

Until the hard truths of why this industry even exists are accepted, and then the problems addressed from that paradigm, or until there can be a cataclysmic paradigm shift as to why horse racing should exist at all, the majority of ideas and efforts to make horse racing a "gambler friendly" game are nothing more than chasing your tail.
__________________
"Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is an absurd one. -- Voltaire
highnote is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-13-2017, 10:14 PM   #366
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 1,106
sadly that is spot on
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-13-2017, 10:29 PM   #367
highnote
Registered User
 
highnote's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 9,590
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
sadly that is spot on
Change is in evitable. People who run racetracks had better stop hoping for a magic reversal of fortune and start finding a solutions, otherwise the property will sold to the highest bidder and turned into housing or an office complex.

Raising takeouts is an easy measure to implement. It remains to be seen whether or not it will have the desired effect.

Horseplayers seem to be betting against it.
__________________
"Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is an absurd one. -- Voltaire
highnote is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-13-2017, 11:59 PM   #368
redlandb
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 19
Too Good

This whole argument reminds me of health care in America...

The costs are out of control, because the cost to provide that service is too great due to the research/breeding needed to get there.

In health care, we run needless test after needless test in order to catch the 1% mystery illness, while the costs are 500% greater than without the tests.

In horse racing, we are stuck with these takeout hikes, which feed the purse increase, which feeds breeding, that finally provides horses that runs 4 seconds faster on a mile race.

So, I would ask, is it really worth the added cost (takeout), just to run a little faster?

If owners of $2500 claimers can survive on $4000 purses, why can the big owners? Costs I know...Just to run faster.

In the end, lower the purses, lower the takeout, lower the quality of the animals, and let them get there 4 seconds slower.

I want this sport to get back to being built of the love of the race, not what we have now.

I am sorry, if I am a short sighted honky who doesn't bet $100's per race.
redlandb is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-14-2017, 12:10 AM   #369
highnote
Registered User
 
highnote's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 9,590
Quote:
Originally Posted by redlandb View Post
This whole argument reminds me of health care in America...

The costs are out of control, because the cost to provide that service is too great due to the research/breeding needed to get there.

In health care, we run needless test after needless test in order to catch the 1% mystery illness, while the costs are 500% greater than without the tests.

In horse racing, we are stuck with these takeout hikes, which feed the purse increase, which feeds breeding, that finally provides horses that runs 4 seconds faster on a mile race.

So, I would ask, is it really worth the added cost (takeout), just to run a little faster?

If owners of $2500 claimers can survive on $4000 purses, why can the big owners? Costs I know...Just to run faster.

In the end, lower the purses, lower the takeout, lower the quality of the animals, and let them get there 4 seconds slower.

I want this sport to get back to being built of the love of the race, not what we have now.

I am sorry, if I am a short sighted honky who doesn't bet $100's per race.
I was thinking the same thing as I was writing about starting a horseplayer owned track. Do we really need to continue making the breed faster and faster. Why not put more stamina back in the breed and then when economics change start breeding for speed again?

Steven Roman, in his book on dosage (http://www.pacefigures.com/dosage.pdf), wrote eloquently about something that some people critically refer to as "cheap speed":

Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve Roman
As described earlier, there is another kind of speed - that of instantaneous speed or, more realistically, fractional speed and pace. If one wishes to consider the truly fastest horses, then there are a host of runners capable of getting the first quarter mile in 21 seconds plus or minus a fraction. Quite often they flash their speed for only a brief time in the early stages of a race, usually tiring dramatically well before the finish. Many call this "cheap speed". It is only “cheap” because it is not expressed over the full distance of a race. Actually it is not “cheap” at all. It is as valid a physiological expression as any other kind of speed. It just so happens that it occurs at one extreme of the speed frontier and well outside our normal frame of reference for conventional racing. We view these runners in the same way we view runners at the other end of the continuum, say three miles. In the end, we are drawn to speed displayed at distances that we, as a society, prefer to race. Within those bounds, all record holders are essentially equally fast in terms of genetic expression.
At Bush League Downs, I intend to card races that allow horses the chance to express their varied genetic potential and display their aptitudinal type over a range of distances.
__________________
"Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is an absurd one. -- Voltaire

Last edited by highnote; 08-14-2017 at 12:12 AM.
highnote is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-14-2017, 12:39 PM   #370
Andy Asaro
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 677
Andy Asaro is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-14-2017, 04:32 PM   #371
CincyHorseplayer
Registered User
 
CincyHorseplayer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 4,604
Short sighted honkeys betting at Bush League Downs. Sounds like fun!
CincyHorseplayer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-14-2017, 05:07 PM   #372
jimmyb
Registered User
 
jimmyb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Baystater
Posts: 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer View Post
Short sighted honkeys betting at Bush League Downs. Sounds like fun!
Lots of complaining but no real solutions. In spite of greater technology and the ability to go after the internet masses, the industry is inevitably going nowhere but the end of the line.

Maybe solutions exist, maybe they don't. I think some of what highnote comes up with holds merit. It's more than I can say for the powers that be.
jimmyb is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-14-2017, 07:50 PM   #373
Afleet
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmyb View Post
Lots of complaining but no real solutions. In spite of greater technology and the ability to go after the internet masses, the industry is inevitably going nowhere but the end of the line.

Maybe solutions exist, maybe they don't. I think some of what highnote comes up with holds merit. It's more than I can say for the powers that be.
If you could make the same money betting horses (no rebates) as you do at a regular job-would you do it?

I think the answer would be yes for many people. The take needs to be at a level that it takes to create professional horseplayers who bet 5-7 days a week. Hold em created professional card players, why can't horse racing do the same? I would think the take would need to be in the 10% range-that will never happen.

What is the takeout on slot machines- 6-7%?
Afleet is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-14-2017, 10:19 PM   #374
jimmyb
Registered User
 
jimmyb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Baystater
Posts: 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by Afleet View Post
If you could make the same money betting horses (no rebates) as you do at a regular job-would you do it?

I think the answer would be yes for many people. The take needs to be at a level that it takes to create professional horseplayers who bet 5-7 days a week. Hold em created professional card players, why can't horse racing do the same? I would think the take would need to be in the 10% range-that will never happen.

What is the takeout on slot machines- 6-7%?
If the tracks can't get the customer to the track I should think they would go to the customer. Amazon has done this, Wal Mart and others have seen substantial growth in on line purchases. I'm not a marketing guy and don't know all the nuances of the racing business, but I would think there is a way of doing whats already being done by other established businesses.

I think highnote is on to something with this.
jimmyb is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-14-2017, 10:28 PM   #375
highnote
Registered User
 
highnote's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 9,590
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmyb View Post
If the tracks can't get the customer to the track I should think they would go to the customer. Amazon has done this, Wal Mart and others have seen substantial growth in on line purchases. I'm not a marketing guy and don't know all the nuances of the racing business, but I would think there is a way of doing whats already being done by other established businesses.

I think highnote is on to something with this.
At the very least, by talking about starting a racetrack maybe we will give racing executives some ideas.

I am visiting some rural areas of the Midwest soon. I am going to check out land prices. That is probably the biggest fixed cost.
__________________
"Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is an absurd one. -- Voltaire
highnote is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Did Martin Garcia body slam Follow Me Crev on purpose?
Yes, he's done it before on a Baffert Horse - 21.05%
4 Votes
No, it just happened - 52.63%
10 Votes
Not sure but it sure was suspicious - 26.32%
5 Votes
Total Votes: 19
Non-members may not vote on this poll.
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:48 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2017 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed in a modern browser @ 1280x720 Resolution Or Higher
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.