What handicapper/author influenced you

[Trotman]

I was wondering who was the handicapper/author which got you interested in horse racing and from that point the evolution to where you are today.

[Overlay]

Initial interest: Ainslie

Greatest influence: Quirin (switched me from a qualitative, elimination-style, "pick-the-winner" orientation to a full-field, statistical, wagering-value perspective)

[ManeMediaMogul]

In order of appearance:

My father, my uncle, Andy Beyer, Jeff Siegel, Gordon Jones, Joshua Shelley, Marty Ritt and Gary Hallman.

[markgoldie]

Beyer. The revolution began with "Picking Winners," which was 1975ish, but which has only picked up steam through the years. The basic idea of breaking a horse's performance down to accurate numbers, creating pars for distance and surface, has never been stronger than right now. We have expanded it to pace as well as final time scenarios, but the original idea is his.

In subsequent books, Beyer gave unique insights into how real professionals attack the game. Probably the most useful topics here were track biases and trip handicapping.

To his credit, he can admit that he was wrong and has done so in print. The most famous case involves his initial belief that pace did not affect final performance. Just from memory, he initially said something like: The idea that if a horse went two-fifths of a second slower around the last turn would allow him to go two-fifths of a second faster at the wire is ridiculous. And he later admitted that his statement was wrong; that speed of pace does significantly affect performance.

As I have mentioned before here, to my knowledge he has never publicly corrected his other major theoretical mistake: namely that the class level in which a horse competes will not affect his final-speed performance. There is overwhelming evidence that this is incorrect. For example, a $10,000 claimer who is thrust into allowance company will not only get beaten by more lengths, he will run slower than he would have in his own class.

Other major contributors to the discussion are Quirin, Quinn, and Giles who have introduced the concept of running styles, race shapes, and "pace comfort zones." This is a key theory, the merits of which are beyond dispute.

Be interesting to see who else the posters will single out.

[TEJAS KIDD]

My father, Ron Cox, Tim Osterman, Dan Montillion, a couple of other guys that wouldnt want to be named in a public forum and years of trial and err (about 10 years)
No authors or books involved.
I figured if a guy was writing a book about the subject, 1. He wasnt beating the game and needed some sort of income. or 2. The masses were going to read the book and use the same methods, therefore creating undervalued wagers.

[gl45]

Author, Ray Taulbot

[Robert Goren]

Ira S Cohen

[melman]

Mark====Bob Pandolfo. To me without question this man has been and still is the "real deal". "Pandy" back in the day had me running and I do mean running to get the Sports Eye as soon as it came out. The number of longshot winners that he had IN PRINT long before the start of the race from the 8 hole was amazing. He really got me into the harness game. I think it is really great for people who want to look into the harness game to be able to read his old and current articles for FREE at the USTA homepage. I just wish Pandy had followed thru and written that book. I don't know your thinking on the subject Mark but I really agree with Pandy on how speed has really become the first order of business in handicapping a race. IMO in today's game it's even more important then ever.

[JBmadera]

Beyer, Cramer and Ken Massa.

[markgoldie]

Originally Posted by melman

Mark====Bob Pandolfo. To me without question this man has been and still is the "real deal". "Pandy" back in the day had me running and I do mean running to get the Sports Eye as soon as it came out. The number of longshot winners that he had IN PRINT long before the start of the race from the 8 hole was amazing. He really got me into the harness game. I think it is really great for people who want to look into the harness game to be able to read his old and current articles for FREE at the USTA homepage. I just wish Pandy had followed thru and written that book. I don't know your thinking on the subject Mark but I really agree with Pandy on how speed has really become the first order of business in handicapping a race. IMO in today's game it's even more important then ever.

Mel: We're kinda on the wrong side of the tracks here, but yes, if you archive my posts on "the dark side," you'll see that I'm the consumate early-speed capper. Also, transposing t-bred race-style designations to h-racing is instructive. In both sports, E and E/P types dominate the win-percentage stats, with P-types less so and S-types bringing up the rear. Unfortunately, in h-racing, race shapes aren't as predictable.

Agree that Pandy is a knowledgable guy and a good place for those interesed in h-racing to start.

[Red God]

Cramer, Mitchell and Davidowitz

[furlong]

Beyer, Brohamer, Meadow, and Jim Lehane(great little book)

[illinoisbred]

Originally Posted by TEJAS KIDD

My father, Ron Cox, Tim Osterman, Dan Montillion, a couple of other guys that wouldnt want to be named in a public forum and years of trial and err (about 10 years)
No authors or books involved.
I figured if a guy was writing a book about the subject, 1. He wasnt beating the game and needed some sort of income. or 2. The masses were going to read the book and use the same methods, therefore creating undervalued wagers.

I agree With you Tejas Kidd regarding book writing. Having said that,I'd give the nod to Davidowitz' Betting Thorobreds as far as books go. That book offers food for thought on a variety of ways to approach the game-all with some merit. His take on trainer patterns-clipping winners and looking for similarities still seems like a better approach than fitting results in preconceived categories.

Other big influences-my Father, Scott McMannis, The complete set of seminar tapes issued years ago by Len Ragozin/Len Friedman.

[PhantomOnTour]

Without a doubt it is William Quirin. Ditto what a previous poster said about him. A single book of his advanced my knowledge and success by miles.

[only11]

Cramer.