The same old discussion

[CincyHorseplayer]

I'm not sure why betting like this is looked down upon by many players. They, like myself read Beyer's 2nd book and are "BIG" swingers. Yet you hear them talk elsewhere and they say their ROI is dismal and it sounds as if they lose half their bankroll regularly before they hit the big HR. It's like the Mendoza line hitter in baseball who belts 25 HR's but the OBP is dismal and the lack of other extra base hits their slugging and consequently OPS suffers as well. Because many of us don't play fulltime I don't like that we get this betting machismo jammed down our throats by the big $ players.

All of the way I bet is from trial and error and my experience in the game over 20 years. My player batting line is relatively healthy in all areas. Much of it is because I backed my way into betting win and occasionally win/place. My records demanded it because I was robbing my own bottom line. Squandering solid paying winners swinging for gold. I think this focus on who can win a race helps also with horizontal wagers. I play less vertical races these days but double down on the ones I do. This focus has allowed me to crush some very simple but overlaid races and also allowed me to swing for big payoffs. It's a balance. But in hindsight I think being rooted in the basics is still a winning approach. My records say it is. My hit % remains the same since I started keeping detailed records since 2001. Becoming a better handicapper my average mutual has risen 31% in the last 4 years, largely due to statistical analysis. Listening to some great people on here I am becoming a better all round bettor. A reality being a decent handicapper didn't afford me for a long time. So I am grateful for the advice on betting. But I think those bettors could take some time with these concepts also. Their bottom line will improve more than they think.

[thaskalos]

I don't think that the competent player is doing himself any favors when he labels himself as a "win-bettor", a "win/place bettor", an "exacta-bettor"...etc. As our skill increases, I think we should endeavor to increase our wagering options as well. Just as the golfer carries different clubs in his bag for the different shots that he has to make on the golf-course...so should the competent horseplayer employ different wagering strategies from race to race...because one size DOESN'T fit all when it comes to horse-betting. One race may call for a win-bet...whereas another may present a great trifecta opportunity. And further down the line, a great pick-3 wager may reveal itself...if the player isn't blinded by preconceived notions about which wager is "best"...and which is "worst".

IMO...it isn't smart to go into a given race with the intention of making any particular preconceived wager. The player should be open to a MENU of wagering options...and he should let the RACE(S) dictate which wager is best-suited for each particular case.

[ultracapper]

I've been betting to win and place religiously for over 10 years now and have a substantial database of results to show for it. I can tell you with a great deal of confidence that betting to win only in relation to w/p will be more profitable if you are a solid handicapper. Seconditis is just one of those unavoidable things in handicapping, but depending on your mental makeup, can have varying degrees of impact on everything you do as a handicapper.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I don't think that the competent player is doing himself any favors when he labels himself as a "win-bettor", a "win/place bettor", an "exacta-bettor"...etc. As our skill increases, I think we should endeavor to increase our wagering options as well. Just as the golfer carries different clubs in his bag for the different shots that he has to make on the golf-course...so should the competent horseplayer employ different wagering strategies from race to race...because one size DOESN'T fit all when it comes to horse-betting. One race may call for a win-bet...whereas another may present a great trifecta opportunity. And further down the line, a great pick-3 wager may reveal itself...if the player isn't blinded by preconceived notions about which wager is "best"...and which is "worst".

IMO...it isn't smart to go into a given race with the intention of making any particular preconceived wager. The player should be open to a MENU of wagering options...and he should let the RACE(S) dictate which wager is best-suited for each particular case.

I'm not going to argue these points because fundamentally you're correct. But in order to approach the game this way, you had better be mentally rock-solid, because you will be dealing with a butt load of "If I'd only done this or that" kind of moments.

[Poindexter]

I used to subscribe to the win place theory for a looong time, but after tearing up my own database of plays, I realized that win is a substantially better option than win place. The reason is that live horses are in the top 2 a very high percentage of the time and thus kill your place price. If you want to incorporate place into your betting you probably have to add a couple exactas to the place bet to equalize things a bit. For instance 20 win place and maybe a $3 exacta from the favorite to your horse and a $2 exacta from the 2nd favorite to your horse. Once you develop a database of plays, play around with that and see if that can equalize things out a bit.

Personally I have reached the point where I can live without the place bet. But keep records. It's easy to do horse, your line(if you make one), public line, maybe morning line, win payout collected, place payout collected, show payout collected, develop a big database and see what kind of nuggets you can come up with. You might even want to add surface and track and distance and running style, projected pace, you can even toss in jockey % and trainer % if you want, whatever you deem important.............handicap yourself a little bit. Not that I track all this myself, but I should.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

I'm not going to argue these points because fundamentally you're correct. But in order to approach the game this way, you had better be mentally rock-solid, because you will be dealing with a butt load of "If I'd only done this or that" kind of moments.

These "If I'd only done this or that" moments can't be avoided no matter WHAT we do. They are inherent in both, the handicapping AND the betting process of this game. I combat this by taking my time, to ensure that I am doing the best that I can do in my handicapping and betting.

The game fools you into thinking that every loss is a "mistake"...and I don't fall for that.

[ultracapper]

I have found, at least in the high-handle circuits, that the place pool for horses in fields of 9 or more at odds of 9/2 to 8/1, is a very high expectation pool. There are a great deal of serious win players that reside in that 9/2 to 8/1 window, and when they find a play, get quite aggressive in the win pool, and all but ignore the place pool. I had a horse about a month ago that paid $14.20 $10.40. He won like a good thing, and the 'cappers that landed on him flooded into the win pool, making the place pool look like the horse was 10 or 12 to 1. Of the 3 "traditional" pools, my opinion is the place pool is by far the least efficient of the 3.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

These "If I'd only done this or that" moments can't be avoided no matter WHAT we do. They are inherent in both, the handicapping AND the betting process of this game. I combat this by taking my time, to ensure that I am doing the best that I can do in my handicapping and betting.

The game fools you into thinking that every loss is a "mistake"...and I don't fall for that.

Woa!! Don't you find there are exponentially more handicappers that blame everything from jockeys to the position of the moon before they admit mistake?

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Absolutely. Would you still bet place if your ROI was .96 when your win ROI is 1.15?

Unlikely.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

I'm not going to argue these points because fundamentally you're correct. But in order to approach the game this way, you had better be mentally rock-solid, because you will be dealing with a butt load of "If I'd only done this or that" kind of moments.

I don't think anyone would refer to me as being "mentally rock-solid" but I don't give more than just a fleeting thought as to the what-ifs of my completed bets. Presumably a good player has a well-thought out betting plan and should be confident that they are playing optimally.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

Woa!! Don't you find there are exponentially more handicappers that blame everything from jockeys to the position of the moon before they admit mistake?

There are many horseplayers who think that a "mistake" of some sort was made every time that they lose a bet. If the "mistake" wasn't by the jockey...then it was by the player himself...for "missing something" about the eventual winner of the race. That's why all the players that I see quickly go back and scan the PPs of the winner after the race is run...which led to Tom Ainslie's immortal quote that, "After every race...another system is born".

Me...I just shrug my shoulders and move on to the next race after a loss. I've realized that this game is tough enough without me creating my own problems...and beating myself.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by AndyC

I don't think anyone would refer to me as being "mentally rock-solid" but I don't give more than just a fleeting thought as to the what-ifs of my completed bets. Presumably a good player has a well-thought out betting plan and should be confident that they are playing optimally.

I believe you and I are on the same page, if that well thought out betting plan is basically a betting template you bring into each race, rather than a unique betting plan for each race, evolving as the race in question is being handicapped. I know exactly what Thask is saying when he refers to the 'cappers that go hunting for reason after the race is run. They handicap a race for 1/2 an hour to come to their selection, but are able to find their mistake in about 4 seconds after the race is run. Doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

There are many horseplayers who think that a "mistake" of some sort was made every time that they lose a bet. If the "mistake" wasn't by the jockey...then it was by the player himself...for "missing something" about the eventual winner of the race. That's why all the players that I see quickly go back and scan the PPs of the winner after the race is run...which led to Tom Ainslie's immortal quote that, "After every race...another system is born".

Me...I just shrug my shoulders and move on to the next race after a loss. I've realized that this game is tough enough without me creating my own problems...and beating myself.

The Buddha would put you over his knee and smack your ass mercilessly. The man's claim to fame is cause and effect. The race result is the effect. Everything before it is cause. The handicapper's mission is to interpret that cause and determine it's predictability as to the ensuing effect.

[betovernetcapper]

To me betting a horse in any pool without knowing the probably payoff is careless. In a lot of races with short priced favorites, the favorite may pay almost as much or even more to place then win. If the case of a very strong entry. they may run one-two & the place payoff may be more then the win. In a truly wide open race, a 3-1 shot might have a worst case place scenario of $5.60. If a 1 to 9 shot is hammered in the place pool & you bet WP to beat him and are successful, you might collect $20 on your win bet & $2.20 on your place bet if the 1 to 9 runs second. If the 1 to 9 shot had a serious shot, screw the place bet & put your bet to win knowing it's a gamble and you may lose. If you do win your well paid for taking the gamble on the win end-place not so much.
You can use a calculator or smart phone to examine the possible pool payoffs or you can use ATR-PRO, which gives you a ton of tote info. I use the latter but I'm sure there are other programs that can skim the tote board & provide you with useful data. I have heard other people mention that they have written their own programs, but the idea of doing so is confrontable to me. In any event, I'd advise examining the pool before betting into it.

[AltonKelsey]

Anything you divined from the tote can easily disappear on the last flash , and frequently does , unless you're talking about the largest pools on big days.