Dutching using ML odds

[ICR]

I know there are tons of formulas and on-line calculators for dutching using live at the track post time tote board odds ...

But suppose one can't bet at post time ... Is there a way to dutch using Morning Line odds.

I realize that a horse can be 20-1 ML and then possibly go off at 9-2 ... But is there any method formula, calculator or that takes that variance into consideration ?

Any ideas or suggestions ... Thanks in advance

[betovernetcapper]

The ML odds are better than nothing. If I was using them in advance I'd deduct something if the horse was ridden by the leading rider, a very popular trainer and or has the highest last Beyer. In addition if his last race was a big win by a wide margin, I'd reduce his projected price.
If a horse is 8-5 or less & figures I'd proceed on the assumption he will be odds on.
The above is just my 2$ as projecting the advance price is like catching lightning in a bottle.
If you bet with PTC you can dutch in advance and give the minimum odds you'll accept for the dutch at X minutes to post.

[thaskalos]

Dutching is a precise wagering method...and it demands knowledge of the actual real-time odds of the horses involved. The morning line is a poor imitation of the actual odds-line...and it cannot possibly be of any use in this regard.

[betovernetcapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Dutching is a precise wagering method...and it demands knowledge of the actual real-time odds of the horses involved. The morning line is a poor imitation of the actual odds-line...and it cannot possibly be of any use in this regard.

How do you get "actual real time odds" when the odds shift even after the gate opens? To the extent the odds are in flux until at least the first call, your making your bets on an estimate of the final odds. Granted your likely to have more accurate odds if you bet at the last possible minute, but betting in advance has it's balancing aspects. Sometime the odds will be lower than your estimate & sometimes higher & in the long run probably balance out.

The morning line is flawed to one degree or another & is more or less accurate at different tracks. I'm sure if the young man gives it his best shot, he will find something that works.

[Redboard]

If you just want to play as an entertainment thing, and are OK with a $1.50 ROI, go right ahead. But if you are serious about making a profit, you need the tote. The main problem with your method IMO is not the 20-1 ML that goes off at 4-1, but the 3-1 ML that goes off at 5-1; those are the real overlays IMO.
Sure you will get dropping odds when your horse makes the turn but that’s something you have to deal with.
This also depends on who makes the ML. When you play a track for a while you can start to predict why he made some higher/lower.
In my experience dutching does give one a higher return that WP.
Good luck.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by Redboard

but the 3-1 ML that goes off at 5-1; those are the real overlays IMO.

Do you have any data to support that this statement?

[davew]

roughly 2/3rds winners close at odds under their ML

difficulty would be in deciding which horses to include in your dutch

[betovernetcapper]

It is a problem, but like most problems will vanish with enough work & caffeine. If there is a God he probably invented meth, just to assist people confroting this type of problem.

[MPRanger]

.... you could dutch bet two horses from the tote board. You will have a better idea what the final odds might be.

Dutch betting is better for fixed odds like betting exchanges.