The same old discussion

[betovernetcapper]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

Anything you divined from the tote can easily disappear on the last flash , and frequently does , unless you're talking about the largest pools on big days.

Your right there can be a 180 turn around in the odds often too late for you to cancel your bet. Occasionally this works out to your benefit. It does happen. Look at it this way. Before placing a win bet, do you look at the probable win odds? If you don't then it's perfectly consistent to ignore the probable place odds. If you do check the probable win odds before betting then from a procedural point of view, shouldn't you look at the probable place odds if your betting into that pool?

There are any number of people that ignore the odds entirely and bet on a horse because they think he's the most likely winner or they like the color of the jockeys silks or it's a grey horse on a rainy day or whatever. God bless them & if it works for them, it works for me.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

I believe you and I are on the same page, if that well thought out betting plan is basically a betting template you bring into each race, rather than a unique betting plan for each race, evolving as the race in question is being handicapped. I know exactly what Thask is saying when he refers to the 'cappers that go hunting for reason after the race is run. They handicap a race for 1/2 an hour to come to their selection, but are able to find their mistake in about 4 seconds after the race is run. Doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

I wouldn't say that I have a unique betting plan for each race but I would say that each bettable race fits different kinds of bets. If I have to think too much about the kind of bet the race fits I should probably not be betting the race or I have a bet so juicy that all bet types fit. The betting choice should seem somewhat obvious. I just don't try to fit a square peg into a round hole.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

There are many horseplayers who think that a "mistake" of some sort was made every time that they lose a bet. If the "mistake" wasn't by the jockey...then it was by the player himself...for "missing something" about the eventual winner of the race. That's why all the players that I see quickly go back and scan the PPs of the winner after the race is run...which led to Tom Ainslie's immortal quote that, "After every race...another system is born".

Me...I just shrug my shoulders and move on to the next race after a loss. I've realized that this game is tough enough without me creating my own problems...and beating myself.

THat's a great point. These days 90% of my losing bets I would never played it any other way. Next race...

[Tom]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

There are many horseplayers who think that a "mistake" of some sort was made every time that they lose a bet. If the "mistake" wasn't by the jockey...then it was by the player himself...for "missing something" about the eventual winner of the race. That's why all the players that I see quickly go back and scan the PPs of the winner after the race is run...which led to Tom Ainslie's immortal quote that, "After every race...another system is born".

Me...I just shrug my shoulders and move on to the next race after a loss. I've realized that this game is tough enough without me creating my own problems...and beating myself.

I'd dance a jig if I could get to be consistent 70% loser in this game!

[porchy44]

I never bet to place anymore. My win bets are usually horses 6/1 or greater.

When I run second, 50% of the time it is to the chalk. But the exacta payoff is usually 3 to 4 times more than the place price. So I usually put the favorite over my horse in the exacta. There are exceptions, (When I "definitely" can toss the favorite.)

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Tom

I'd dance a jig if I could get to be consistent 70% loser in this game!

Word!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqCQe5FwqaU

[GMB@BP]

As always you are always trying to leverage your good opinions versus the value they create.

I never shoehorn how I am going to wager but in general I do end up betting mostly win wagers and few place wagers.

I have found my style of handicapping and wagering usually find horses from the 5/1 to 15/1 odds, again in general.

But the way I handicap I am coming up with some kind of angle and its usually not just as simple as this horse is in form and ran well in his last and figures here. In many cases I am wrong, way more wrong than right and my horses dont run a step to the angle I liked. Betting place when your horses runs off the board is not very useful, I am much better off having more plays using win betting than a win and place strategy and grinding out an ROI. Obviously this is not the same very everyone as we all play differently.

What I dont like though is leveraging my money with multi race bets unless I have good opinions on the surrounding races, feels like I am guessing and hoping to tie my horse into a pick 3/4 bet. I feel like I am guessing on surrounding races way to much so I migrate to straight win wagers.